Unbelievable...

Nikita · #1 03-09-06, 09:09 AM

By the turn, when all the money went in, I was a 95% favorite to win (on the flop, I think I was around a 93% favorite). After the turn, they only had two outs left to win (tie actually, as neither of them could win outright). The remaining Ace and the remaining five.

The funny thing though, when the first guy went all-in, then the next immediately called, I had to request time before I called myself. They moved all-in so fast, I wondered if one of them had possibly limped in with QQ or AA, which would have me beat. I called because I just couldn't put either of them on a hand like that. I figured one or both had an ace, I was right...

bunny · #2 03-09-06, 02:45 PM

Set of 5 would also have beat your set of 4.

I'd recalculate the percentages on turn.

bdawg31 · #3 03-09-06, 03:44 PM

I can't see why you would even consider a set of fives at this point. How likely do you think it is that someone called a pot sized bet on the flop with that board holding a pair of fives? Nik was the first to bet on the flop - so i can not see the first guy calling that bet with a pair of fives with someone else yet to act. And i can't see the second person calling with a pair of fives after somone bet the pot and another called. Yes, anything is 'possible' but i think you are looking way to hard for hands that beat you.

I also do not understand your reasoning behind betting more with AQ on the board. Why should she bet more? To stop someone from 'chasing' with a possible four outs? The only thing i am scared of at this point would be the flush draw (or gut shot str8 draw i guess) which i believe Nik bet enough to go up against those.

although someone could have limped in with AA or QQ - i don't think there is anything you can do about that. There is no way Nik should have gotten off this hand at any point with what is showing on the board and how it played pre-flop. I would have put one or both of them on Ax suited and caught two pair - which is basically what happened.

Nik - i assume you don't need told that you played this fine. But, in my opinion, i think you did.

bunny · #4 03-09-06, 04:10 PM

Debate23 had 1500 chips. 80 chips is not enough to chase them away in my opinion.

Would you see them calling with a pair higher than 5? How about 77,88,99,TT? Would 80 chips be enough to chase them away? I'd think not.

The other two players had no read on N1kita. If she had bet more on flop, she might have deterred her opponents from going all-in on turn, giving her a chance to see the river card.

As for the comment I made on the AQ that was in my previous thought, thinking she went all in on river. Bad beat. My mistake.

edit: Not saying you played this wrong. You played it by the book. Which is how most people would play it. I said it once and I'll say it again; 'to each his own'.

Zybomb · #5 03-09-06, 06:12 PM

Bold comments above....in addition

Bdawg said most of it, but the point I think you are missing is the point of betting is to make players make mistakes by calling. 4/5s the pot is enough to make you make a mistake by calling on a flush draw, an even bigger mistake by calling with a gutshot, and an unbelievable mistake by calling with a PP below Queens!

If you have Ax, I technically want you around, so I want to make callable bets.

If you bet 2x the pot in any situation, you should only be called if you are beat unless you are playing at a very poor table. In which case you could of gotten your information cheaper

Edit: You are beign results oriented. If Nikita bet 200 and the player folded saying ok Im folding a medium ace good bet (and didn't see the turn or river), would you still think she bet the flop correctly?

Nikita · #6 03-09-06, 04:20 PM

Yup, that's why it's in the bad beat section.

I don't think my opponents could have played their hands any worse and that's what I should always hope for, it just sucks when something like three hands into a tournament, you get eliminated not by just one, but two donkeys!

Nikita · #7 03-09-06, 06:22 PM

The percentages are correct. Enter the three hands into here: if you want to double check.

Talking Poker · #8 03-09-06, 09:12 PM

"For the record" (for Aeq), I obviously agree with bdawg and Zy here.

bunny - you don't want to always bet an amount that will make your opponents fold anything other than hands that have you beat. You want to bet enough to get them to make mistakes in calling. In this case, betting 4/5 the pot is plenty. If your opponent calls this bet with 55, so be it. That's a call I'd love for my opponents to make.

If you only win small pots (and lose big pots), you'll never accumulae enough chips to go deep in a tourney.