Unbelievable...
 

PokerStars Game #4223787211: Tournament #20996249, Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2006/03/08 - 23:04:10 (ET)
Table '20996249 1' Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: morgie (1300 in chips)
Seat 2: yeahmg (1490 in chips)
Seat 3: celko68 (1440 in chips)
Seat 4: N1kita (1380 in chips)
Seat 5: CFI159 (1500 in chips)
Seat 6: Debate23 (1500 in chips)
Seat 7: lakers72 (1440 in chips)
Seat 8: Katz3 (2270 in chips)
Seat 9: Cindy91169 (1180 in chips)
N1kita: posts small blind 10
CFI159: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to N1kita [4d 4s]
Debate23: calls 20
lakers72: folds
Katz3: folds
Cindy91169: folds
morgie: calls 20
yeahmg: folds
celko68: calls 20
N1kita: calls 10
CFI159: checks
*** FLOP *** [4h Qh Ac]
N1kita: bets 80
lakers72 said, "he doesn't look civilized"
CFI159: folds
Debate23: calls 80
morgie: calls 80
celko68: folds
*** TURN *** [4h Qh Ac] [5d]
N1kita: bets 250
Debate23: raises 1150 to 1400 and is all-in
morgie: calls 1200 and is all-in
N1kita: calls 1030 and is all-in
*** RIVER *** [4h Qh Ac 5d] [Ah]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
N1kita: shows [4d 4s] (a full house, Fours full of Aces)
Debate23: shows [As 5s] (a full house, Aces full of Fives)
Debate23 collected 160 from side pot
morgie: shows [Ad 5h] (a full house, Aces full of Fives)
Debate23 collected 1970 from main pot
morgie collected 1970 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 4100 Main pot 3940. Side pot 160. | Rake 0
Board [4h Qh Ac 5d Ah]
Seat 1: morgie showed [Ad 5h] and won (1970) with a full house, Aces full of Fives
Seat 2: yeahmg folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: celko68 (button) folded on the Flop
Seat 4: N1kita (small blind) showed [4d 4s] and lost with a full house, Fours full of Aces
Seat 5: CFI159 (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 6: Debate23 showed [As 5s] and won (2130) with a full house, Aces full of Fives
Seat 7: lakers72 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: Katz3 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: Cindy91169 folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Not that bad of a bad beat. I've seen worse.

On flop, with AQ out on board, you should've bet more.

No, she shouldn't have.

To each his own. I would have.

how much more? she bet 4/5ths the pot? Would you double the pot?

The Problem is that it was worth it for them to chase the hand the entire way. Once the tunr cld be wshouomes off its worth it to chase again, and you weary of the river bet, it is a bad beat, but i beat yourself out of the hand too..

By the turn, when all the money went in, I was a 95% favorite to win (on the flop, I think I was around a 93% favorite). After the turn, they only had two outs left to win (tie actually, as neither of them could win outright). The remaining Ace and the remaining five.

The funny thing though, when the first guy went all-in, then the next immediately called, I had to request time before I called myself. They moved all-in so fast, I wondered if one of them had possibly limped in with QQ or AA, which would have me beat. I called because I just couldn't put either of them on a hand like that. I figured one or both had an ace, I was right... :(

Drawing to one of the only two cards that could help them? And they both had the same hand too? That's pretty damn bad.

Perhaps it would be wrong, but yes; I would have doubled the pot on flop. Just to get a better read on the other players.

My read on flop: 4h Qh Ac : flush draw; slowplayed top set or middle set, or they might be holding a pair higher than my 4. I'd bet 200. Why? Because I have bottom set, not taking the chance for it to become a losing set. Turn card could have given them the chance at a higher set.

Turn: 5d : set 5? Maybe. Beats my set. If they go all in here, with my previous bet of 200, I'd have folded. With the 80 bet, hard to tell. I'd probably do what N1kita did and go all in. But then again, I wouldn't have bet 80.

Set of 5 would also have beat your set of 4.

I'd recalculate the percentages on turn.

I can't see why you would even consider a set of fives at this point. How likely do you think it is that someone called a pot sized bet on the flop with that board holding a pair of fives? Nik was the first to bet on the flop - so i can not see the first guy calling that bet with a pair of fives with someone else yet to act. And i can't see the second person calling with a pair of fives after somone bet the pot and another called. Yes, anything is 'possible' but i think you are looking way to hard for hands that beat you.

I also do not understand your reasoning behind betting more with AQ on the board. Why should she bet more? To stop someone from 'chasing' with a possible four outs? The only thing i am scared of at this point would be the flush draw (or gut shot str8 draw i guess) which i believe Nik bet enough to go up against those.

although someone could have limped in with AA or QQ - i don't think there is anything you can do about that. There is no way Nik should have gotten off this hand at any point with what is showing on the board and how it played pre-flop. I would have put one or both of them on Ax suited and caught two pair - which is basically what happened.

Nik - i assume you don't need told that you played this fine. But, in my opinion, i think you did.

Debate23 had 1500 chips. 80 chips is not enough to chase them away in my opinion.

Would you see them calling with a pair higher than 5? How about 77,88,99,TT? Would 80 chips be enough to chase them away? I'd think not.

The other two players had no read on N1kita. If she had bet more on flop, she might have deterred her opponents from going all-in on turn, giving her a chance to see the river card.

As for the comment I made on the AQ that was in my previous thought, thinking she went all in on river. Bad beat. My mistake.

edit: Not saying you played this wrong. You played it by the book. Which is how most people would play it. I said it once and I'll say it again; 'to each his own'.

Yup, that's why it's in the bad beat section.

I don't think my opponents could have played their hands any worse and that's what I should always hope for, it just sucks when something like three hands into a tournament, you get eliminated not by just one, but two donkeys!

Bold comments above....in addition

Bdawg said most of it, but the point I think you are missing is the point of betting is to make players make mistakes by calling. 4/5s the pot is enough to make you make a mistake by calling on a flush draw, an even bigger mistake by calling with a gutshot, and an unbelievable mistake by calling with a PP below Queens!

If you have Ax, I technically want you around, so I want to make callable bets.

If you bet 2x the pot in any situation, you should only be called if you are beat unless you are playing at a very poor table. In which case you could of gotten your information cheaper

Edit: You are beign results oriented. If Nikita bet 200 and the player folded saying ok Im folding a medium ace good bet (and didn't see the turn or river), would you still think she bet the flop correctly?

The percentages are correct. Enter the three hands into here: if you want to double check.

"For the record" (for Aeq), I obviously agree with bdawg and Zy here.

bunny - you don't want to always bet an amount that will make your opponents fold anything other than hands that have you beat. You want to bet enough to get them to make mistakes in calling. In this case, betting 4/5 the pot is plenty. If your opponent calls this bet with 55, so be it. That's a call I'd love for my opponents to make.

If you only win small pots (and lose big pots), you'll never accumulae enough chips to go deep in a tourney.