Need Math Whiz

[Govman6767]

All you math junkies figure this one out

I played 243 hands ran into quads 3 times while not making a flush or boat
can someone break this down in to a probability
not just making the flush or boat but somone getting quads 3 times

[eejit101]

1,712,304 / 44 = 38,916 this means that in every 38,916 times the cards are dealt, quads will occur only once.

so you play 243 hands. this number will be divided - 38916/243 = 160ish.

so in 243 hand there is a 1 in 160 chance you will make quads.the odds of making this three times will simply be 160 x 160 x 160 = 1 in 4.1 million.

wow, thats steep if ive done it right.

[GeoffM]

If you did do it right, you forgot to factor in 10 hands being dealt, not 1.

[Talking Poker]

I didn't check your math at all, but he said he RAN INTO quads 3 times - not that he HAD QUADS three times. So I believe each of your numbers would need to be divided by 9 (assuming 9 opponents - he didn't say), which, assuming everything else you did was true and I haven't even looked at) would be: 18*18*18 = 5832. Much more reasonable looking...

[kmb13592]

Do you have any idea what you are doing, or did you just decide to write random number down.

I am actually currently taking an AP statistics class, and we just did a unit on probability. I'll get back to you with the answer in a little bit, this problem is very complex.

You need to provide the number of people at the table in order to figure this problem out, so how many people were playing at the table.

[eejit101]

lol, i didnt write random numbers down.

i forgot about ten hands, 9 others. so im working it out to around 500,000 to one on running into quads three times in 234 hands.

[HEwong]

lol thats seems like a lot of worthless thinking lol since he ran into wuads 3 times , not caught quads 3 times

[Talking Poker]

I don't think so. See my above post.

[melioris]

ok, so you ran into quads three times in roughly 250 hands? Just out of curiousity, does that mean you were involved in each hand with the quads? I am not sure what is going on with the flush house words you wrote, but I surmise that you are trying to say you didn't have a great hand against the quads.

When something like that happens to me I figure the odds to be 1/a lot. Figuring out the exact number isn't really worth it unless you need the number for your bad beat story. And if that is what you want the number for, just make it up.

In my line of work we have a term for something like this. It is "rare squared". In your case it would be "rare cubed".

[PShabi]

Great point.

[badblood44]

It's the binomial distribution:



P = probability of success, or probability of having 4 of a kind in a hold 'em hand.
N = number of trials, or number of players * number of hands
n = number of successes, or in this case 3

[MAYHEM45]

Ahh, Eng. Stats 220, my FAVOURITE class.

[HEwong]

wtf lol.. im glad i never took statistics

[Govman6767]

No I ran into quads 3 times
twice at a 6 person N/L table once at a 9 person N/L tourny
but according to your numbers I should have played the lottery instead

[thrash1294]

If it make you feel better I flop 3 nut flushes yesterday and got beat by 3 str
flushes on all three and river beats none the less, but it was limit games.Stars is starting make me mad was 408 hands.