Anyone bet on sports also?

Aequitas58 · #1 10-23-04, 01:26 AM

Nice job on getting some NFL wins. From an Eagles perspective, where do you see their 2-3 losses this season? I really don't see them losing more than 3.

Their first might come against the Ravens in two weeks, and for some reason, they always split with the Cowboys. Your thoughts?

jimmytheg · #2 10-23-04, 03:07 AM

The Eagles have the inside track to home field throughout the playoffs by far in my mind....they have an extremely easy schedule. They really lucked out in facing the AFC central this year, as opposed to the South or the East.

That being said, the key to beating the Eagles will be stoping the big play, and putting up at least 21 points. They should have lost the Monday night game against the Vikings... they really only put that one away when TO caught the long touchdown pass (which wasnt actually a catch, but that's why Mike Tice won't ever win a championship)

Though the Eagles appear to be jugernauts who blow everyone out, when you look at the stats, they give up a lot of yards and first downs. Did you know that over the first 5 games, Philly actually has LESS first downs combined than their opponents? That's a telling number, and it all goes back to getting, or stopping, the home run ball...depending on your perspective.

Now, who do I think can beat them? A team with a ball control offense that doesnt turn the ball over too much, and doesnt give up too many big plays. Baltimore is not that team in my mind. Without Jamal Lewis, this team is just plain awful, and as it stands now, Lewis wont play against in the Eagles game.

I would be worried about the Steelers....and if we are talking about the spread, I definately would not feel comfortable giving the Steelers 7 points or more. They have the exact type of team that could give Philly lots of trouble, plus the game will be in Pittsburgh. Of course, Im not betting against philly till they lose, so i will probably just lay off that game....im gonna ride that horse till she bucks me, same with indy. In fact, I have teased indy and philly together every possible week so far, and they've covered every time

Penguinfan · #3 10-23-04, 08:51 AM

I think this is actually the type of team that Philly CAN blowout. I not a die hard Steeler fan, but I do follow them and they have no defense for a mobile QB like McNabb, none whatsoever. Their secondary actually got better with the injury to Chad Scott in my opinion, but I would rather trot out 10 guys on defense than let him loose back there. Seriously though, the steelers can't contain a guy like McNabb and have no options to cover TO, lay the number in this one up to 7 or even 8 I would say. As rediculous as it sounds I think the Steelers have a better chance of beating New England than they do the Eagles.

Aequitas58 · #4 10-23-04, 02:10 PM

The moblie QB issue is almost moot nowadays. McNabb has so many targets that he simply doesn't run anymore. And, to mix it up (+occasionally throw off the defense) I would have him run - at least 3/4 times a game.

His "mobileness" has helped him escape some sticky situations when his o-line has collapsed, but even that doesn't happen too often.

Aequitas58 · #5 10-23-04, 02:11 PM

Nice reply.

Among the Philly fans, the Steelers game is the "big" game we're waiting for. It should be the best game so far this season.

(And how about the Giants!? Playing very well lately.)

jimmytheg · #6 10-24-04, 02:59 AM

On a side note, here are my top picks for week 7, if anyone cares:

Tease:
Philly from -7 down to -1 against the Browns with the Dolphins + 6 to +12 at home against the Rams

Reasoning: Most people think this is an automatic win for the Rams, and would think this is a crazy bet...always a good sign. There's a reason bookies buy new cars every year. This is a classic let-down game for the Rams. One of the keys to not falling into the let down game trap in this league is coaching...and Mike Martz doesnt impress me. It seems to me that Martz will only get smart when the press is on him after a loss...and they are riding high this week after two solid wins, so Martz should probably be back in his "I'm a genius, let's make crazy calls" attitude yet again. The key to this game for Miami will be turnovers. The defense is just as good as it always has been, with good shutdown corners, and throughout his short career, Bulger has not proven he is capable of finding his 3rd and 4th recievers...this is where most of his picks come from. Giving the Miami offense consistently good field position could lead to an out-right win in this game. On the flip side, the Rams defense is very weak against the run, and Sammy Morris is a big punishing back who can move the chains, and move the clock.

Like i said in an earlier post, I'm riding Philly till the buck me.

This was a long post, so i'll bust out another one for other picks

jimmytheg · #7 10-24-04, 08:29 AM

Continuing with week 7 thoughts:

If ya just cant stomach betting on the dolphins, I also like teasin Buffalo from +6 up to +12 against the ravens with Philly

Reasoning: This Buffalo team has played every game tough. They lost to Jacksonville by 3 on a last second td, oakland by 3, the jets by 2 on a last min fg, and to new england by 14...but even in that game, the bills were at the pats 25, down by 7 with a 2 min left, when the pats forced a fumble and took it to the house to seal the game. All that being said, I just can't see this Ravens team, without Jamal Lewis, beating the Bills by more 11. And if you consider that the over/under on this game is 31.5.....vegas does not expect a high scoring affair, which just reinforces my belief that the ravens wont win by more than 11

In fact, my tease of the week is Buffalo (moving the line from +6 to +12) with Philly ( moving the line from -7 to -1)
I'm gonna put 2 units on this tease

jimmytheg · #8 10-24-04, 09:22 AM

Im going to lay off on my hunch about teasin the Dolphins to +12, even though i really like it. All the signs are there, but i have another one in mind besides my main Buffalo and Philly tease.

I'm going to tease the under of the giants lions game up to 46. the giants have only reached this number once, in week one at philly in a 31-17 loss, and the lions have also only reached this once, last week losing 38-10 against GB in a really really pitiful game. Vegas always pads the over/unders upwards a couple points, cause the majority of people who bet on totals tend to bet the over. So far, the giants are averaging 21 points a game, and detroit on 17.5....i think this number is to high

Also, the same with dallas and green bay...almost same exact point averages, dallas with 17.4 and Gb with 22.8, notorius rivals with better pass defenses than run defenses....teasin it up to 50 ( the 4 point higher number is very odd here, especially given the good pass defense of both teams)

2 units here also.

Extra pick, if ya'll feelin lucky.....dallas/gb under with Philly together, 1 unit

Penguinfan · #9 10-24-04, 11:09 AM

Buffalo wil probably be my biggest play of the day. I will steer clear of the Dolphins simply because I have a rule about not asking bad teams to do something good for me till they show they actually can. I broke that rule yesterday with Penn St in a very easy spot against Iowa and got reminded why I have that rule, I think that is the first time I bet on a team that scored 4 friggin points and still almost got the cover.