Sometimes I just don't know.

Talking Poker · #1 10-24-06, 11:56 AM

This is what I think stings the most. Damn variance. It's like ALL THAT WORK - all that time - for nothing.

You may not believe it right now, but you WILL get hot and win that all back and then some... it just might take a while.

When I look at my graphs like this (which I review regularly - after most sessions), I think about the cards I had that session, the flops I hit (or hit second best), the number of suckouts I took, etc. I then try to figure out whay my luck was for that session: great, good, average, below average, or bad. Whatever I come up with in my head, I move it up one (to the better), because I am SURE that most people think they are unluckier than they really are (selective memory), and I have to assume I do the same thing. Then I compare that to my results. If I lost 2 bu ins, but had below average or worse luck, that's not that bad. If I broke even with below average luck, that's great! If I logged a winner with average luck, that's good too.... And if I had a monster session but was having great luck, I don't put too much weight into it.

I know this sounds random and will get lost in this thread, but I really think this is a good way to analyze your sessions. More importantly, if you think you played well and were just unlucky, you HAVE to shake it off. Because in the long run, your luck WILL even out. And if you are typically able to log winner with "average" luck (and remember, you are SUPPOSED to take bad beats sometimes), then you will be a long term winner.

lightfungus · #2 10-24-06, 12:57 PM

I finally had to post in this thread after this week, and mostly because I was hoping it would help me shake it off. I feel like I have been affected by the "luck" this week, and my game has suffered. For example, I could have minimized the damage on the the kings hand above, right after those aces got rocked back to back. That would be $200 above the -$50 I am at right now. But my biggest problem this week is my confidence. I have not been confident in my game, and I get even more discouraged because I have had big wins but only because I have gotten mind numbingly lucky. I don't feel like I am grinding, but rather gambling at this point. After a good nights sleep last night, I think I am numb to what happened last night and ready to jump back on the grinding train...just have to figure out where to get on. After all this rambling, I guess I mean thanks for the comments, because sometimes you just need someone from the outside to pick you up and dust you off and push you back in there. So here I go, nose stopped bleeding and so did the ass, and now I am ready to go.

, *sigh*, poker...

Talking Poker · #3 10-24-06, 01:25 PM

I know I've been talking about making videos for you guys for a while, and I really am going to be doing that soon. And once I do, we're going to turn you from a breakevern player (or moderate winner or whatever) into a winner.

In the mean time - join CardRunners, if you haven't already. I could be wrong, but I feel like you are at the point where something like that could be the push you need.

lightfungus · #4 10-28-06, 09:31 PM

I feel like I have been on a bdawg style slide here. Another $700 swing in my pocket because of wonderful bullshit. At least I am immune these days.

sjay2k · #5 10-28-06, 11:10 PM

check back turn in KK hand

Zybomb · #6 10-29-06, 03:19 PM

agreed 100%

bdawg31 · #7 10-30-06, 11:21 AM

Ha, i just noticed the bdawg reference! I love being associated with bad runs/bad luck :-)

I have regrouped and started from scratch. I went through a lot of what you described - the confidence thing being a huge factor.

I am starting over - playing $50 NL games right now. Doing okay so far - its a bit of a grind, but so far so good. I have taken what i have seen TP doing (in hand histories and discussions we have had). I think that has helped. I am going to subscribe to card runners and hopefully that will help as well.

We will see.

Hope things turn around for you.