Joe Public VS The Sportsbooks

Penguinfan · #1 09-10-06, 12:41 PM

It's just the word wrap function, in the above example 63% are on Tampa and 37% are on Baltimore.

Fading the public on this one would be taking the points Baltimore.

Am I clear or am I cnfused?

The books would love to get equal action on both sides, but in reality they don't, and adjust the lines accordingly.

Open WIFI at airports rocks.

Talking Poker · #2 09-10-06, 12:58 PM

I get it. I was reading it all wrong (top line as one line, and then the second line as who the Public picked - hell, I didn't know). Makes sense now.

Surprising how skewed the betting really is. You should track this for a few weeks.

omahilo · #3 09-10-06, 05:58 PM

Hes 6-3 so far... This seems like one helluva experiment to do, I would love to see the final numbers.

Penguinfan · #4 09-11-06, 04:13 AM

After a quick scan I have it as 9-4 in the books favor, rough say for Joe Public.

With the two Monday nighters all that's left that makes a winning week a lock.

Just as I thought too, the most one-sided game for Joe Public (Seattle) was a loser for them, I am real interested in seeing how that angle plays out.

Again that was a quick look at the scores before I run out of the hotel to work this morning, so could be off by a number or two, but 9-4 or 8-5 is a day I would take considering there was no work or handicapping involved whatsoever, simply going against the Public.

omahilo · #5 09-11-06, 10:54 AM

I called that Seattle game...

I said in another thread when everyone jumped on that thing that DET would play alot better than everyone thought. I wonder if this way actually works... I wouldnt consider betting all the games but I would consider betting the games where the public is betting the underdog (JAX and CIN). Im not really too sure where you got these stats at.

I saw on the RX forum (a sports betting forum) that SEA was 91% to DET 9%,the public took that one in the ass.

We'll see what week 2 holds, a nice week if anyone bets all the games like this.

Talking Poker · #6 09-21-06, 02:42 AM

Penguin - Did you bother to see how this worked out for Week 2? Is it too late now?

I think this is a very interesting theory you have...

Penguinfan · #7 09-21-06, 08:05 AM

I spent the entire weekend with my head in my ass and didn't follow up on this.

I have handicapping friends who probably did and will find out.

I will make sure to get this weekends public numbers up early Sunday morning for everyone to follow/fade along.

Taking the kids for tonight and tomorrow but will start the weekend NCAA and NFL of Friday afternoon when we get back.

jillaj · #8 09-21-06, 03:43 PM

I just went through the yahoo picks for week 2 and betting the opposite of the fan picks vs the spread would come out to 11 losses vs 5 wins. So if I did it correct this would have been a beat down for anyone going with this method versus the results from week 1. Last weeks scores were very lopsided wich is a big factor. I look forward to week 3 to see if it is more like week 1 or a continuation of week 2.