Joe Public VS The Sportsbooks

[Talking Poker]

Maybe I'm not readingf the numbers right or I'm just not understanding, but take this for example:

TAMPA BAY (3.0) Baltimore +3
Baltimore
63.4
36.6

Doesn't that mean that 63.4% of Joe Public are taking Baltimore? And if so, wouldn't we want to bet against them? Maybe I just don't understand the format you are using.

Also, keep in mind (and I know you know this) that sportsbooks are profitable because of the juice, not because Joe Public is clueless. If they take $11,000 in bets on Tampa Bay and $11,000 in bets on Baltimore, then they will pay out $21,000 total (original $11k + 10k winnings), regardless of who wins, keeping $1000 for themselves. THAT'S where the money comes from.... right?

[Penguinfan]

It's just the word wrap function, in the above example 63% are on Tampa and 37% are on Baltimore.

Fading the public on this one would be taking the points Baltimore.

Am I clear or am I cnfused?

The books would love to get equal action on both sides, but in reality they don't, and adjust the lines accordingly.

Open WIFI at airports rocks.

[Talking Poker]

I get it. I was reading it all wrong (top line as one line, and then the second line as who the Public picked - hell, I didn't know). Makes sense now.

Surprising how skewed the betting really is. You should track this for a few weeks.

[omahilo]

Hes 6-3 so far... This seems like one helluva experiment to do, I would love to see the final numbers.

[Penguinfan]

After a quick scan I have it as 9-4 in the books favor, rough say for Joe Public.

With the two Monday nighters all that's left that makes a winning week a lock.

Just as I thought too, the most one-sided game for Joe Public (Seattle) was a loser for them, I am real interested in seeing how that angle plays out.


Again that was a quick look at the scores before I run out of the hotel to work this morning, so could be off by a number or two, but 9-4 or 8-5 is a day I would take considering there was no work or handicapping involved whatsoever, simply going against the Public.

[omahilo]

I called that Seattle game...

I said in another thread when everyone jumped on that thing that DET would play alot better than everyone thought. I wonder if this way actually works... I wouldnt consider betting all the games but I would consider betting the games where the public is betting the underdog (JAX and CIN). Im not really too sure where you got these stats at.

I saw on the RX forum (a sports betting forum) that SEA was 91% to DET 9%,the public took that one in the ass.

We'll see what week 2 holds, a nice week if anyone bets all the games like this.

[Talking Poker]

Penguin - Did you bother to see how this worked out for Week 2? Is it too late now?

I think this is a very interesting theory you have...