|
|
|
|
#1
06-02-06, 01:24 PM
|
||||
|
||||
I believe MB's response to this will be that we would need to rule out Case B (as we did on the flop with Cases C, D, and E), but she will incorrectly state that Case A remains true - that there is still only a "13% probability that nobody has a hole card Ace" when in reality, we know that this number is 100%.
|
|
#2
06-02-06, 01:36 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Well, I am sufficiently confused as to what this thread is asking. I've tried to read original posts a few times and I am completely lost.
I will thus conclude that everybody is right because I really don't know if we're talking about the same thing or not. Time for golf.
__________________
"And that's how you play aces." Yeah, you make kings run in to them. |
|
#3
06-02-06, 01:40 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Well then, your conclusion is wrong.
 I'm actually surprised you find this so confusing. I think MathBabe and I understand exactly what the other is saying. Just read it all carefully, one post at a time. |
|
#5
06-02-06, 05:52 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
I am taking MathBabe's silence as her conceding.
|
|
#6
06-02-06, 07:53 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Ok...I've read the first few posts and again..I'm at the same point I was a few hours ago.
She is talking about the chances of someone being dealt a hand in poker. The probability of someone being dealt a hand in poker does not depend on what may or may not come on the flop...because you don't calculate future events when figuring out probabilities. However, you are talking about the probability of someone having a certain hand given the information that a flop would give you. Again, two different things. I think you are reading her statement of "regardless of the flop ace" differently than I am. I'm reading it as "it doesn't matter because it hasn't happened yet when you are calculating what people were dealt"
__________________
"And that's how you play aces." Yeah, you make kings run in to them. |
|
#7
06-02-06, 07:59 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Right, and you are reading it wrong. Everyone is talking about the present. Why would we care what the odds WERE preflop that someone was dealt an Ace when we are on the flop now, trying to play poker and make decisions? Of course we need to use all of the information available to us.
I am saying that the more Aces on the flop, the less likely it is (NOW) that one of our opponent holds one, and MathBabe is disagreeing with me. She is saying that the odds remain the same (NOW) regardless of how many Aces were flopped because the hole cards were dealt first. If I am misinterpreting what you are saying MathBabe, please clarify... but I can't think for the life of me why anyone would care about completely irrelevant odds (what the odds WERE preflop, discounting all the information we have available to us now after the flop), so I have to assume we're on the same page here. |
 |
|
|
Hybrid Mode
