BlackJack @ PartyPoker

[Talking Poker]

Dude. You're a smart guy. Please tell me you didn't just post this.

Yes, in the short run, players can make "bad plays" that negatively affect YOU, but that are EQUALLY likely to make the same exact bad play and SAVE you. I know you know this.

In other words, using your example, say Player 5 hits and gets a 5. Player 6 stays. Now the dealer flips over J6 and instead of making 21 like they would have, they pull a King and bust and everyone wins. That "bad play" just made everyone at the table money, but no one ever thanks that guy for it - they only get mad when he hurts them.

Not only that, but the entie deck is now throw off one card (the extra card that he took), so the entire next hand is completely different than it would have been, so thinking about "bad player" making "bad plays" in the long term is completely pointless - because everything would be different.

The point is, the cards are shuffled, and the odds of the next card being whatever (a good or bad card for the dealer, for example) are exactly the same.

If you want to play the "would have" game, that's fine - but you have to do it for both the times when the bad play costs you money AND the times when it makes you money. And those will of course even out, so it's pointless to even consider them.

The cards in a Black Jack shoe are randomly distributed. Playing with good or bad players do not affect your win rate. And by "win rate," I of course mean "lose rate," since you will lose in the long run. Period.