5/10 6-max stats

Talking Poker · #1 12-17-05, 05:22 PM

I agree.

PShabi · #2 12-20-05, 01:03 AM

Got some answers on what these stats mean. Straight from PT forum:

Steal Success

* No Flop % - percentage of times your steal attempts were not called.
* Fold % - percentage of times, when you attempting a steal that you folded before showdown.
* Ww/oSD% - percentage of times, when attempting a steal, that you won the hand without a showdown.
* WSD% - percentage of times you went to showdown when attempting to steal.
* W$SD% - percentage of times you won money when going to showdown when attempting to steal.

BTW, blind steal is defined by the program as ANY raise from the CO or Button where no one has entered the pot.

So, I have attempted 706 steals.

My fold% is 23%. I lost rougly 162 hands w/o showing down.

I went to showdown 26.6% of the time. That's 188 times. I won 52.66% of those. That's 99 wins, 89 losses showing down.

Now the good part is I win 50.3% w/o a showdown.

So, in summation:

I'm winning

50.3% w/o a showdown
+
14% (99 wins at showdown / 706 total attempts)

=

approx. 65% winrate when making a steal.

Looks like blind steals are a pretty big part of my recent success.

PShabi · #3 12-20-05, 01:15 AM

Now, I guess you look at my attempt to steal #. 35%.

I steal 35% of the time and win 65% of those pots. Now as I start to steal more, I'll probably see that 65% # go down. However, with more attempts the the actual money won could stay the same.

At what steal rate would it become unprofittable? If you stole 38% of the time and won 64% of those pots, you'd obviously be making more $$$.

Pretty interesting.

Bed time.

Talking Poker · #4 12-20-05, 01:55 AM

Using your same formulas, it looks like my number is 63% - not significantly different from yours, really.

The other thing to consider though, is that in most of those hands, you are winning small pots (before the showdown - probably quite a few preflop), where probably ALL of the losses come after the flop at the very least. In other words, yes, you are winning 2/3 of these pots, but if the pots you are winning are only 2/3 as big as the ones you are losing, all you are doing is breaking even.

See what I'm getting at? I think there is even more to it than you have investigated so far - namely converting this into BB/100 for steal attempts, which I'm sure PT can do somehow.

sjay2k · #5 12-20-05, 03:20 AM

Here are my stats from 5/10 and 10/20 (only about 5.5K hands, but still):

sjay2k · #6 12-20-05, 03:25 AM

I'll have a closer look later, but I noticed that our check-raising statistics are all quite different:

Shabi: 1.2%, 67/32/1
TP: 0.6%, 9/78/13
Sjay: 1.7%, 49/40/11

Interesting.

sjay2k · #7 12-20-05, 03:32 AM

And position stats (filtered for 4-6 players)

UTG: 18/18, 0.13
MP: 21/19.5, 0.12
CO: 22.5/19, 0.16
Button: 28/22, 0.21
SB: 40/12.5, -0.02
BB: 29/12, -0.11 (tighten up here??)

Talking Poker · #8 12-20-05, 12:51 PM

Your numbers look great (nice BB/100), but as you said, your sample size is just too small to really be significant. It's better than nothing, and the numbers that show HOW you play are meaningful, but I don't think the results are meaningful yet.

PShabi · #9 12-20-05, 01:15 PM

Maybe more significant than you think. I'm winning 2% more in my attempts. I think I was stealing at 35 and you were at 32, right?

So, I steal 3% more often and still win at a better %. May add up to a bit more than we think. Nothing crazy though.

However, I agree, you have to look at bb/100 in stealing situations. I'll see if I can

wildcard1433 · #10 12-21-05, 12:23 AM

If you're really curious about where you would become unprofitable, or rather where you are most profitable with those percentages, I'm sure there is an optimization formula you can plug those into to find out. I'll leave the exacts to the stats majors and computer programs though. Actually, is there any stats programs that will use your numbers to show how to optimize profit, or is that a new dicussion topic?

PShabi · #11 12-21-05, 01:02 AM

I'll get back to this when I ahve more time, but let me just say that I've seen people with "stats" that match up and winrates that do not.

There are no "optimal" stats.

wildcard1433 · #12 12-21-05, 01:06 AM

that's why it's gambling eh?

PShabi · #13 12-26-05, 02:18 PM

Alright, I can't let this thread die.

I *think* I found out how to determine stealing winrate in terms of BB/100.

From the general tab in "stats" I go to filter. There's a filter you can check that says "chance to steal blinds." I select "chance to steal & raised" and as I understand it, that changes your stats to situations where you had the chance to steal and actually made a raise to do that.

Then, back on the main page you can see your winrate in those unique situations.

Anyway, my suspicion that blind steal were a big part of my success is true. I'm actuallly winning more in steal situations. Remember, I said I was attempting steals at a rate of 35% and was winning 65% of those hands.

My winrate in terms of bb/100 when making steals is 2.21 / 100 hands. That is just slightly more than my overall winrate.

TP, please use this filter and compare your bb/100 in the blinds to your overall.

Talking Poker · #14 12-26-05, 11:53 PM

For $5/$10 6 max only (apples to apples), using this filter, I'm at .35 BB/HAND (if I'm reading this correctly). Doesn't that mean I'm at 35BB/100?

We're obviously not looking at the same thing here. I'm pretty sure I'm right though. My sample size drops from 24k to 1300 hands, and I made a whopping $4534 on those hands.... yes, $3.50 per hand (playing $5/$10).

Without the filter, I'm at just .03/hand, looking at the same piece of data.

Damn.

I say again: DAMN.

I guess this makes sense though. I mean, most of the money we make should come in late position when everyone has folded in front of us and we raise. If you can't make money in that scenario, when can you???

I suspect the numbers you reported in your previous post are "off." Do you maybe make that many BB per HAND? If so, that's sick.

PShabi · #15 12-27-05, 12:42 PM

Yeah, I was looking at the wrong thing (avg / hand).

My bb/hand is only .22 to your .35.

So, you fucking dominate here too. Fuck, you're good.

Talking Poker · #16 12-27-05, 02:58 PM

LOL... I wouldn't go that far, but I am glad we looked at this with a little more detail. I know on the surface, it seemed like you were really killing in these steal situations, but I think there are other explanations for that - primarily that you SHOULD be killing in those situations. I'm glad you found a way to compare $ to $, as only looking at the stats on the surface can be misleading, as we saw...