PenguinFan (Sports Betting Bankroll Management)

ChipFish · #1 10-23-05, 04:35 PM

Keep up the good work with the Sports Picks!
You're doing quite well so far.

Perhaps if you have time, you might want to educate some of the
other members on the forum about proper bankroll management for sports betting....
If you think it's important in poker, it's about 10 times more important in sportsbetting.

The only reason I bring this up, is because I have noticed 1 or 2 (or more) posters that have low bankrolls for poker taking your advice.

*******Not, knocking your advice********

Penguinfan · #2 10-23-05, 05:06 PM

Thats actually a very good question and honestly one I tend to avoid becasue nobody I know really follow sound money management. Most internet gamblers are in it for entertainment and hope to make a few bucks or have a get rich quick attitude.

If you think playing poker is a grind then you really don't want to try and make a long term profit at sports betting.

You should never be risking more than 3% of your bankroll on any one play and you should never be playing parlays or teasers, ever.

This means if you have a $1000 bankroll to start with you should be risking $30 a game and thats it. Sounds light I know, but thats the fact.

When should you "Move up" in wagers, well some people like me never do, I have found a wager I am comfortable with, albeit higher than 3% of my bankroll, and I just let the bankroll grow until I can take a significant amount out for something worthwhile (like the mortgage).

I really think people should be playing on the internet and not with a "local guy" simply because with a local guy the week usually runs from Tuesday to Monday night and you have a constant look at short run after short run and it is way too easy to "Double up" on the Monday night game because your way behind for that particular week or "really pound" the MNF game because you are way ahead for the week, and mostly becasue you are probably betting on credit as bookies don't require you to post up like internet books do. I think betting with a local requires much more discipline.

Over any given 10 plays I hope to make half of a base wager in profit, what most people call a unit. Thats honestly it, so for me over every 10 bets I hope to grind out, on average $100.

I am sure I have mentioned on here that I work for an internet handicapping web-site that has done pretty well, the two cashes at the Hilton contest for about 20 grand haven't hurt the numbers and you would be suprised at how many customers we have who go broke despite us giving them more winners than losers. Varying your bet size, parlays, action plays, etc... will ruin you, it has to be considered a grind because that is all it is.

Talking Poker · #3 10-23-05, 06:40 PM

Great post. From what I'm reading, you're hoping to have a 5% "edge" (well, "win rate," I guess) over the long run. You bet in $200 units and hope to win $10 per bet (long term, of course). That's interesting.

Question: Why are all parlays sucker bets? If they are multiplying the single game odds, it seems fair to me... or is it because it's so hard to win them that it would be better to place the bets individually to lower your variance?

Penguinfan · #4 10-23-05, 07:11 PM

I'll put it like this, and I am sure there are math pro's out there who can back up or dispute my logic, but it all comes down to the fact I hate to go 1-1 on two plays and lose everything I bet.

If you bet $100 on a game and win you now have $200, say you roll that entire $200 into the next game and win, you go 2-0 and you now have $400.

If you played a two-team parlay with that original $100 and won both games you now have $360 (your $100 plus $260 profit considering the average book pays 13-5 on a two-teamer) you are still risking losing the same original $100 and giving the book a $40 free ride.

Let's say you want to go for a big score and play a 3 or 4 teamer (6-1 and 10-1 usually) now going 2-1 or 1-2 is MUCH more common than going 3-0 (or 0-3 for that matter) here's the possible outcomes on $100 wagers:

3-0 on your parlay +$600
2-1 on your parlay -$100
1-2 on your parlay -$100
0-3 on your paraly -$100

of the four possible outcomes only one leave you with any profit whatsoever.

3-0 on straight bets +300
2-1 on straight bets +$90
1-2 on straight bets -110
0-3 on straight bets -$330

Lets toss out the 0-3 posibilities since we are at least decent handicappers and in all honesty 3 games is a VERY short run, but this is just an example.

More importantly I want to look at 3-0 outcomes, you have only made twice as much on the parlay as you would have if you went 3-0 on straight bets. Yes your risk is $200 less, but if we are playing within our bankroll and intend on ever placing another wager then that is really a moot point.

Every time you go 2-1 in the above scenario the parlay sets you back $190 from your bankroll. Now you go 2-1 again and 1-2 the next time, you are 5-4 but -$300 where you should be grinding it out and be +$60 or a $360 swing.

You just can't factor into the equasion how hard it is to go 3-0 on three plays at the same time, and if you can hit 4+ team parlays with any regularity at all then I hope the surgery to remove the horseshoe from your ass isn't too painful.

Seriously, nobody can hit over 65% long term and you will need as least that to win parlays over the long haul, it just isn't worth it.

Next time you are in Vegas call your hotel and tell them you are going to play exclusivly $500 3 team parlays, there will be a limo at the airport waiting for you to make sure you nothing happens to you on the way to the window.

ChipFish · #5 10-23-05, 07:52 PM

This was NOT the title of my post!

Penguinfan · #6 10-23-05, 07:58 PM

Perhaps your clique membership has been revoked

Talking Poker · #7 10-23-05, 08:58 PM

Thanks for the explanation. It makes sense to me IF what you are saying bout the odds is true. At Intertops though, I know they multiple the decimal odds, so I think it works out to be the exact same in the end (with higher variance, of course).

In other words, if you pick 2 games that individually would each pay you exactly 2:1, they give you 4:1 on your parlay.

The ones I do are usually BIG favorites in football, and I pick them straight up. For example, this week, I bet $20 on this parlay (straight up winners):
Redskins, Seahawks, and Falcons.

The individual odds were:
1.125, 1.5, and 1.312. Multiply that out, and you get 2.214:1 total odds on my bet.

Now, whether or not those individual odds were fair, I don't know.... it's possible they adjust them for the parlays and I've just never noticed.

ChipFish · #8 10-23-05, 09:02 PM

Let me know how popular you are once you start losing, would ya?

Penguinfan · #9 10-23-05, 09:28 PM

Hey, it's not like I have ever rose to ChipFish status anyway.

Losing happens, winning happens. Currently 8-4 on plays posted here which I will take, will there be a 4-8 streak, I am sure there will be. People will get bored with it when they find out it's not a get rich quick path.

When that happens I'll still be grinding it out, just with less posts about it.