For the sports bettors

[Penguinfan]

Here's somewhere to start, stats are nice but they are only a means to an end. First thing you can do when handicapping football either NFL or NCAA is look at what the precieved better teams strength is and how the other team stands to deal with it.

Lets start to take apart the Pittsburgh/Cincy game since it was brought up in another thread:

Cincy's strenth is obviously Carson Palmers performance and Pittsburgh CERTAINLY has problems in it's secondary giving up just over 200 yards a game to the opposing QB's while Palmer is racking up over 25 yards a game! Right here I stop and think if I don't find something very positive about Pittsburgh I may have a play on Cincy.

Pittsburgh's strengh is it's running game and ability to control the clock. Pittsburgh averages almost 120 yards a game rushing while the Cincy defense is allowing almost as many, this presents a problem. The team that runs the best usually wins a game in the NFL. With the line being a virtual pickem at -1 for Cincy this game could honestly go either way.

Does Pittsburgh get an interception to kill a drive? Does Palmer pass for 300+ yards against a horrible secondary? How healthy is Rothleisberger? Too many variables for this game.

Honestly I looked at more than this, but even if you just look at the above you know this game is not playable and move on to the next game on the board looking for a play. Lots to choose from.

That is not to say that someone doesn't have another angle and plays Pittsburgh and gets the win, I just know what works for me.

Good luck.

[omahilo]

cool man thanks... never really thought about all that.

So lets say that the steelers only avg like 60 yds on the ground and the bengals only gave up 60 yds on the ground a game, would this push you towards cincy at all?

How lopsided do stats like this have to be in order for you to give action to one side or the other?

[Penguinfan]

Yes, if I thought the Steelers had no chance to run the ball well and control the clock then I would certainly give a play on Cincy a hard look. On the flip side if I thought I could trust the Steeler secondary I would still consider them a play.

It's not so much how lopsided stats have to be, it comes down to weather or not one team will be able to impose thier game plan on the other and the second team not be able to react well to it.

You also have to look at who teams and players are putting those numbers up against. Putting up 100 yards rushing against say Carolina or Tampa is much more impressive than say Buffalo, get it?