You are a bad player. Trust me on this.

[johnp158]

Jebus!

Has anybody here ever taken any psychology or stats classes? Of course they're independent events, whose outcome has no bearing on the next event. But when you take a large collection of independent events, STATISTICS RULE. The cards that come are random, which doesn't mean that it will always look random. If you see a KKK flop, you might say, "Well how could that be random?" But those patterns are bound to occur, and WILL inevitably occur at times, if it is in fact random.

In a similar vein, you will notice every time that your aces get cracked, or somebody draws out on you when you're dominated. Of course it happens, and of course you notice it. We call that the confirmation bias, in which you seek out information that confirms your beliefs. How often does it really stick out when you raise PF with AA or KK, flop comes unders, you bet, the guy folds, and you win a small pot? Pretty ordinary, so it doesn't stick out.

So I maybe strayed from the point, but this is the gist: A series of "short runs" = "the long run." So I don't understand the logic here.In a series of independent events, when things happen that are statistically improbable, events will INEVITABLY regress to the mean, or to the most likely outcome. If you really look at long-term results with an objective eye, you'll see that things happen as probability dictates.

Cheers,
JP

[Talking Poker]

Thank you.

As I like to say so often in life: "It's just math."