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#1
08-22-05, 06:13 PM
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You guys can't seriously tell me you would rather play at a table full of players who are better than you so you can be on the dork side of bad beats, than play with a table full of morons, take your beats in stride, but make a fortunae in the long run, can you? I mean, you can't seriously be telling me that.
There are "TONS of idiot players" online, and you are using this as a reason to NOT play online??? Has this place turned into Bizarro-Forum??? 
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#2
08-22-05, 06:17 PM
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well its not that... its just that there are as many fish at the casinos i hit up (to scale obviously... theres not 60k of them wandering around).. and it seems my cards hold up better. it's kinda like how in bull durham he says "if you think this is whats making you run good, then it is."
online poker just seems to fuck up the odds! ODDS FUCKER UPPERS |
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#3
08-22-05, 06:32 PM
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No, this is not the problem, the problem is, and I am 100% certain this is the case:
THERE IS NO LONG TERM IN ON-LINE POKER! There I have said it, the truth is out! There is only a never ending series of short runs in on-line poker. Every session/tournament is independant of itself and you can make the right decision time after time and still come out on the losing end of things. This is why nobody can say how many hands the long run is, because it doesn't exist. Best case scenario, keep making the right decisions and hope it works out for you.
__________________
If aces didn't get cracked they would be writing books about me! |
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#4
08-22-05, 06:54 PM
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Jebus! Has anybody here ever taken any psychology or stats classes? Of course they're independent events, whose outcome has no bearing on the next event. But when you take a large collection of independent events, STATISTICS RULE. The cards that come are random, which doesn't mean that it will always look random. If you see a KKK flop, you might say, "Well how could that be random?" But those patterns are bound to occur, and WILL inevitably occur at times, if it is in fact random. In a similar vein, you will notice every time that your aces get cracked, or somebody draws out on you when you're dominated. Of course it happens, and of course you notice it. We call that the confirmation bias, in which you seek out information that confirms your beliefs. How often does it really stick out when you raise PF with AA or KK, flop comes unders, you bet, the guy folds, and you win a small pot? Pretty ordinary, so it doesn't stick out. So I maybe strayed from the point, but this is the gist: A series of "short runs" = "the long run." So I don't understand the logic here.In a series of independent events, when things happen that are statistically improbable, events will INEVITABLY regress to the mean, or to the most likely outcome. If you really look at long-term results with an objective eye, you'll see that things happen as probability dictates. Cheers, JP |
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#5
08-22-05, 07:42 PM
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Thank you.
As I like to say so often in life: "It's just math." |
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#6
08-22-05, 06:57 PM
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This is starting to get comical. I guess the people that continually make money online are just lucky. Getting better and improving your game must be a waste of time. By the sound of it from a few of you wearing the same "lucky" shirt all the time is better than being a sound player.
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