You are a bad player. Trust me on this.

[johnp158]

If you really think this, why play? Yes, each single tournament involves a lot of luck, and obviously cash games involve luck as well, but you can't really believe that it's JUST luck. You're really willing to keep throwing money into tournaments while you honestly believe that it's just a crapshoot? Like TP is saying, you've gotta operate under the idea that it's about long-term results, and getting your money in with the best hand. For instance, when Geoff talks about getting AA and getting 6 callers, yes, you're a dog to win the pot, but you only need to be 15% to win to make money! If you're 40% to win, you should be making huge amounts of money with aces. I hate when people make commments like "uh oh, AA again. How much am I going to lose here?" That thinking is just so wrong.

Maybe it's easy for me to say this because I've been on a pretty good run playing NL cash games, I don't know. Even with tournaments, which most people agree are not a great way to make steady money, it's like Harrington says: Force your opponents to make the wrong decisions, without the proper odds. If you're doing this, you should be fine. I haven't played nearly enough tournaments to know what it's like to go on huge losing runs, but obviously there are people out there who are doing something right.

I hope I'm not coming across too strong here. I know that you guys don't bitch all the time, but this stuff does seem to be bothering you. You (me too) just have to remember that it's about making the best decisions over and over, and exploiting your big edges whenever you can.

[GeoffM]

John, I'm not trying to bitch, I just think I sometimes get a little greedy .

By the by, I have never posted a bad beat story, that has to count for something .

[Talking Poker]

Good post, john.

At the risk of oversimplifying this:
-Yes, of course there is luck in poker, especially in the short term.
-In the long run though, "luck" evens out for everyone (even you, Penguinfan), and the most skilled players end up with the most money.

It's that simple.

As for how long it takes to reach the long run, I don't have an answer for you, but I can tell you it's one hell of a lot longer than ONE HAND... so I'm sorry, but Exhibit A is inadmissible. Submit 50,000 hands worth of Poker Tracker stats and show me how you only get AA 1 in every 500 hands and when you do, show me that you only win with it 10% of the time. THAT, I will accept as evidence.

I will also likely show you how badly you played your AA, whether you were limping in with it, folding it preflop because you think it's "unlucky" or whatever, but at least we will have real, concrete evidence to work with.

[Penguinfan]

I only posted that HH because it happened as I was reading this thread.

[Penguinfan]

Are UB HH's stored on your computer somewhere?

[BlackCoffee]

Im a poor player in the grand scheme of things. Im not a good NL player and am scared to play high stakes. I just truck along at limit 1-2 or 2-4 and try to enjoy the game and make a bit of fishes.

PS: Play Swedes! Living in Sweden! They're the worse ever.. bet anything, fish anything..

[Penguinfan]

So when you lose with AA you played it wrong, but the guy who called with KJ and catches a flop of KJ7 played it brilliantly?


I think this very well sums up on-line poker.

[Talking Poker]

I don't know. Did you fail to raise preflop and let him flop his two pair for free? That was my point. One hand <> Long term.

You seem to be very selectively reading what I have been writing. I don't know how to say any more clearly that YES, I agree with you - there is a lot of short term luck involved in poker! That's the nature of the game. And yes, I believe that ONE HAND counts as the short term.

Instead of retyping what you selectively replied to, I'll just go ahead and quote it, and clarify/highlight the key points.

You're not seriously going to claim to be a losing player with AA over the long run (your entire poker career), are you?

[PShabi]

From what I've been reading, 50k is jack shit as well.

On 2+2, there were several posters who have a winrate of 2+BB in LHE who were talking about breakeven streaks in the 50-60k hand range.

Makes me feel better and foolish at the same time about stressing over my teenie-weenie 1BB/100 over 20k.

[Talking Poker]

I agree. 50k is still not statistically speaking the long term, but it is certainly better than examining a single hand, or worse yet, using one's selective memory (it's much easier to remember bad beats than it is all the times you win with the best hand) to analyze a non-random group of hands.

That's why I said let's look at some real number. Show me 100k Poker Tracker hands and we'll be even better off. Show me 1 million, and dare I say, you've reached the long term.

[Penguinfan]

Same reason I get out of bed in the morning, I hope God is looking the other way and I can sneak one through one of these days.