Winners or Losers???

[junYUN]

yeah something people don't understand about this concept is it's not about calling with no hand, it's about if you made it to the river thinking there was a chance you're ahead...don't let one more bet on a scare card on the river make you fold the possible winner.

[Talking Poker]

Yes, call more on the river.

This is a huge concept and often a common mistake for new and/or losing players. In theory, your "showdown percentage" shouldn't be all that high. If it is, it could mean that you are folding too much on the river. Think about it.

[Kurn]

Here's one more for you. If you're folding more than 1/2 the time you go to the river, you're going to the river way too often.

[GeoffM]

I agree that folding on the river is in general going to be a very bad play to make. You cannot let someone push you off of a decent looking pot unless they REALLY push you off of it.

In sum, I am actually quite surprised (no offense to anyone) that so many of us have been so successful playing poker. I was only counting online play, and I couldn't tell you how much I have won live, but I would also say I have pulled in closer to $300-400 playing live so far this year. I am guessing a lot of you have made a helluva lot more playing live than I have, but I really only play with buddies who never really got the game as well as I did.

In any event, PenguinFan mentioned this so I would like to give you a little bit of what I find. Playing low limits, and I know you are an O8er, it is extremely difficult to beat the rake, not the players, but the rake. Every time I sit down at a table I find myself playing against it. This is exactly why I will never be loyal to 1 particular site. If a site wants to give me a bonus, I am going to jump all over it because for the most part playing low limits, I can at least break even with the rake and my bonus money is merely that, a "bonus" for hours spent playing on the site and having other people pay my rake for me.

Anyway, if Party is going to have a second reload this month (since the first one was early), it should be tomorrow .

[Talking Poker]

I was pretty surprised by this myself. Of the people who responded to the poll, I wonder how many don't have exact numbers and were just guessing... because I find that most people who don't keep records guess themselves to be slightly ahead when in fact they are (at least) slightly in the red... Everything thinks they are a good poker player, but according to my poker tracker stats (for example), most people are losers.

[GeoffM]

LMFAO!

I have only made 1 $400 withdrawal, when times were tight, so I also have the other ~$2200 (not at home, can't check) online right now. Amazingly, I was planning on taking a vacation with this money, but now I have enough to take someone else with me.

PS- In Canadian funds, this works out to being up almost $3,300 for the year, already ahead of my goal of winning $3K CDN. this year. Little bit of thanks to you TP, I have used a few links and the cash has been rolling in. New goal = $6K US , tax free baby .

Now about that porn you're sending me ...

[badblood44]

I'm not all that surprised. Even though poker is gaining popularity by the second, those who are willing and able to look at their own game and improve are still outnumbed by the donkeys. Joining and posting thoughts to a poker forum would seem to indicate rational thought and a willingness to learn - thus you have a higher than normal percentage of winning players.

Just MHO.

[junYUN]

i agree...i'd probably say most of us are at least servicable players... probably mostly break-even players trying to get over that hump. im +$1,200 so far in 2005... but most of that was made in the last 2 months... i was in the red in march.

[Talking Poker]

Absolutely... good point and "duh" on my part.

[2Tone]

I keep good, detailed stats about deposits and withdrawals, so when I say I'm in the black for well over $500 I'm able to do so with confidence. But what I'm not doing is breaking out bonus dollars, $10 party surveys, $50 transfer from TP for posting here, etc. vs. actual table wins, which is kind of cheating I suppose.

PT (which I’m still not using, with no justifiable excuse) would force me to do this. How does it handle bonus $? Are those calculated into your hourly/hand rate?

[Scamp]

Hi. Long time lurker, first time poster.

I've only been playing for about 8 months and never kept any records. I figured that I'd only deposited once and while I had more than that $100 then I was ahead. Recently, however, I was curious to know how much of my winnings were from my mad skillz and how much came from bonuses. I was pleased that not all my profit was from bonuses but disappointed to discover that from a play perspective, Party is killing me (even though I'm well in the black there). Need to fix that as it's a blemish on my otherwise respectable spreadsheet.

[Talking Poker]

Absolutely.

I know you're not a fan of Poker Tracker Kurn. This is a time where I think it woukld be an asset though. I'd love to see your numbers and compare them to my own. Of course, mine are skewed, since I play mostly 6 max games (I see more flops, I play more aggressively), but I'd still love to see some exact numbers with a large sample size.

[PShabi]

I should have a small, but decent sample size of 20k at 3/6 6-max by the end of the week. I'd love to compare stats.

Right now through 15k, I'm winning around 1.5BB/100. Have had some major disaster sessions, so I'm feeling alright.

By the way, raise your hand if you're are very glad that Kurn posts here.

Great analysis as always.

[BlibbityBlabbity]

OOOO, OOOO, I know, I know.....

[Talking Poker]

My hand is raised - you know it is.

And yeah, let's compare stats next week sometime and see what we can learn...

[junYUN]

hand is up... i have definitely learned some "wise-owl" tricks from him in terms of the statistical and analytical side of poker

[Kurn]

From an old PT database (back when I did use it) at 3/6. I folded on the river 42% of the time, 64% of the time I went to showdown I won.

The sample size was 9500 hands and my win rate was 6.14 BB/100.

Note: This is why I always say the long run is a lot longer than you think. Obviously I was running very well. I don't believe this win rate is ever sustainable over the long run. I know it wasn't for me.

[Talking Poker]

Good point. 6 BB/100 is pretty sick.

At a glance, I would say you were folding a bit too much on the river.

[Kurn]

I would agree.