JD's 1 play a day

[JDMcNugent7]

ya, 0 key is broken on the comp. I usually use.

The trying to make a million thing is a joke, but I'd take it. I literally have 0.002% on my sports betting site compared to the $ I have just in stock. So ya, def just doing it for fun, but it's not fun to lose, so might as well try to win.

Ya I know Vegas makes certain lines to sway people to bet on certain sides. Perfect example was Cubs game 2 days ago. The over under was set at 13! That is Insane, and they knew the public would see that # and just pound the under. They probably had the real line around 14.5, but they want at least some $ coming in on the over. The wind was blowing out to center field at almost 30 mph, a damn pop-fly was a homerun, Arizona scored 13 runs alone and Cubs added 5. Guarentee the sportsbooks cleaned up on that bet. I look at all the time to see thoughts on games after I come up with my own, and when they match up with winning bettors that's when I really love them. The good ones knew the over was the play as soon as they saw it set at 13.

I think sports betting is almost exactly like poker too. Juice kills sports, rake kills poker. In both, probably 99% of people lose $, and both have a small percentage of standouts who consistenly profit. BR management is a Huge key in both. Right now I feel like poker has way more skill than sports betting, but probably b/c I know 1000 times more about poker, and I'm sure a case could be made either way pretty easily.

15 unit Bet for Friday is Tampa Bay -1.5 over KC. Could take the -210 line but that is def not as +EV.

[JDMcNugent7]

good start: -15 units. Like the bet still just didnt work out

[JDMcNugent7]

good thing I was mad I lost and put way more on Dodgers -1.5 to make it back, best play might be TB -1.5 again but I'm waiting for the line to go down.

[sjay2k]

I'll be happy to book your bets if you want a bonus 2c on every line you're getting from your sportsbook (Bodog?)

[JDMcNugent7]

using 5 dimes.com, It's way better than bodog. What do u use?

[JDMcNugent7]

The TB line actually went the other way and was never a good play, my fav play is a prop. LA Dodgers and Pitt, Hits+Runs+Errors, under 28. I also have under 9.5. Low scoring game will be great. 25 units on this

[JDMcNugent7]

I'm an idiot, just realized the Dodgers have their freakin closer starting this game for some reason. Might not bet this, guess I might not even have a bet for today, not sure.

[JDMcNugent7]

biggest bet of the year is a winner. Both the unders won and I actually bet more than 25 units on this game but that's what i posted here, so here where it doesnt even matter ill keep it. +1O overall

[sjay2k]

Have lots of accounts - by far the best are Pinnacle and Betfair. Plus all of the random ones, where you can often find a line that is "off" which can give you a +EV bet or an arb.

Getting the best odds is half the battle. Say you are able to pick the correct side 53% of the time. If you get 1.91 (-110), you will get an average return of 1.23%. Now say you use Pinnacle, where you get 1.952 (-105), you will get an average return of 3.46%. Add in the random books (mostly lower odds but if you find a free point) and Betfair, and you should be getting effective odds of say 1.98, which is close to 5%.

[JDMcNugent7]

ya, the best thing to do that I do for my biggest bets is to go to twoplustwo, and they have a sportsbetting thread where we all just bet each other and no juice obv. So I don't really have a problem getting good odds