Final Table

[Reel Deal]

Would be good, yes. Would have been better if the Frenchie won and started a poker boom in that country... those people aren't the brightest, at least as far as I've observed.

[JDMcNugent7]

I was hoping the same thing would happen for the same reason. And ya wow that final table was just so weird all around. Ivey folding JJ was pretty weird even, and god Moon just literally seemed to have absolutely no clue what he was doing.

[Robbie Robb]

Well, if what he said about never having played HU before is true, it would make sense that he had no clue what he was doing. Supposedly he's always chopped when it gets to HU.

Following the HU portion through twitter made me want both of them to somehow lose. (I dunno, maybe the ceiling cave in at the P&T theatre or something)

[Wes]

I played with cada for a few hours at wsop. Seemed like a good player.

[Zybomb]

Cada didn't necessarily play bad (Moon on the other hand might have displayed the worst final table performance I've ever seen. I really think if I gave my 7 year old cousin a basic starting hand chart and told him be aggressive and don't fold he could've done the exact same thing)

Anyway like I said Cada's play wasn't bad, although he made some questionable "gambly" decisions. He just got incredibly lucky in all in situations - I think he was all in for his tournament life 6 times on and only once was he ahead, the others he was a 80/20 dog (twice) or a flip.

Some of the questionable decisions i mentioned earlier

1- Just over min raising D. Moons River Bet on a 489A4 board when Cada raised pre, both checked the flop, Moonc heck called the turn then lead the river

Analysis: Decent bc he can size his raise so little bc Moon may have missed club or diamonds draws or 76 TJ and can not call anything. But bc its Moon, and Moon doesnt like to fold, if he has anything he's calling. I dunno if he had the read on Moon that we got from TV, but it seemed Moon like to play his drawing hands aggro b4 the river with semi bluffs, not play passive until the river then bluff

2- Calling Jeff Schuman's all in 3 bet with AJ for 6 million more into a 9 million pot, where losing leaves you with 5 big blinds

Analysis: Pretty bad IMO especially bc it cripples you if you lose and Schulman is the tightest player at the table and figures to have you drawing to 3 outs with the majority of his pushing range

3- Shoving with 44 over the top of phil ivey's raise preflop, for 5.5 M total, costing Ivey an extra 4.25 in a 7.7

Analysis: Don't really like it unless you are content to just flip coins for a double up or bust. It's not exactly is zero Fold equity move since Ivey didn't have that many chips and it's not quite 2:1 on his call (about 1.8:1). Cada did have 11 Big Blinds, not exactly the ideal resteal stack once the pot has been opened, since it's likely he's getting called and at best hes a flip, but enough where he can wait a LITTLE longer before pouncing.

4- Shoving all in for over 11 Million with 33 after Shulman opened for 1.75 Mill 5 Handed

Analysis: Very gambly, but at least he has an ideal resteal stack now (maybe even a little too big) with good equity. It's not terrible bc Shulman has shown that he wants to avoid big pots and has backed down from 3 bets all in before and it is for a large percentage of his stack. Regardless though, 5 handed, I wonder what hands Shulman opened with hes tossing and what hes calling with.

5- Four betting all in with 22 BvB for 33 Million more after Opening to 2.55 Mill and getting 3 bet to 5.75 Mill. 33 Mill represented half of BB's stack. We are 3 handed

Analysis: Gambley and slightly reckless although BB is probably 3 betting a large range of hands that can not call and some that will include AK which we flip with. His reraise size is smaller though which usually incidicates a stronger hand, calling is half his stack, and we are 3 handed. I just think there's better spots, although overall not terrible

If other people wanna chime in with opinions on these 5 plays I'd be interested

[Windbreaker]

Hand 1 - I think Cada flopped a flush draw. Not sure why he doesn't c-bet. Like this board is unlikely to hit Moon and it's not like you're trying to win with 6 high. Like it's nice to pot control and everything, and see cheap turn/rivers and hope to hit...but most of the time you don't. The river bluff raise is really bad. You're playing an amateur who has shown interest....amateurs aren't going to fold to a small raise when they have so many chips.

Hand 2 - Bad. At best you're hoping for like Tens. Everything else crushes you and the few hand you're doing well against is flipping. He's been avoiding marginal spots and his coach is Hellmuth...so it pretty much rules out most small and mid pairs. Like the pot odds were decent, but at the same time, Shulman knows this as well. Shulman is never really going to mess around vs an UTG raise here.

Hand 3 - It's not bad. Given the situation....I wouldn't mind flipping in this spot. It's the ME....of all tournaments in the world, this is one where first place overlay is so much greater than any others. I wouldn't mind gambling vs the toughest opponent, because you can knock him down and get back into it at the same time...or you're out. The flat payout structure too...so need to go big or go home. The only real consideration is how much of Ivey's range is a pair and how much of it is two overs. If the range is right....I think flipping with an overlay (blinds+antes) and a % edge with the hand is correct.

I think Kurn's analysis on this hand misses the point. It wasn't 2 to 1 on the call. Ivey had to call 4.35 million to win 7.7 M. That's 1.77 to 1. He needs to win this 36.1% of the time for it to be a correct call. The math is going to be close vs Cada's range. Ivey opens from Mid position 7 handed. Assuming Cada assigns Ivey with a "normal range", Cada's range has to be narrower...since he is expecting to get called vs Ivey's range.

So when Ivey looks at it, it eliminates a lot of weak aces from Cada's range, since 3-bet shoving A-rag is going to get crushed by Ivey's range. So Cada is gonna shove pairs, high aces, and high paint cards. Assuming Cada's shoving range is 22+, A9+, KQ - through poker stove, A8o has 34.8% equity. So he doesn't have the correct odds to call.

In addition to all the math, the key point to address is that Ivey is calling and likely to lose. Even if it is mathematically correct to call, the chip Ivey loses in this all in will hurt him significantly. If he folds, the chips he saves hold significant value.

So for Ivey to call, he really has to decide how wide is Cada's range..what the math is, how winning/losing pot affects his chances of winning. In the end Ivey couldn't overcome the pot odds to fold....but like he said...he was looking for a way to fold....and it wouldn't be terrible to have done so.

Hand 4 - It's ok. Not the best spot for him...it really depends how often you think Shulman is calling...and what his calling range would be. If Shulman folds hands like 44-99 then it's a decent spot....but I'm not sure Jeff would in this spot. I really don't think Shulman has been out of line but his comments on the A8 vs 44 hand....maybe makes Shulman more likely to fold. It's probably close between folding and shoving.

Hand 5 - I don't like this hand at all. First raising 2.5x blind vs blind from sb....it's not a good play against a good player in the bb with a lot of chips. I don't know what the blind vs blind confrontation has been like before...but in general, you don't want to blow the pot up with a small pair oop.

In any case, once he get's raised...he put himself into an awkward spot. With 39 BB's and 22 blind vs blind....I think if you believe you're the best player left...you fold. Especially with Darvin there. I guess it's unexploitable to shove in this spot...so I can't blame you for doing so....but generally don't like flipping at best situations with 39bb's in your stack.

I'm sure Cada played well to get to the final table, but he did a lot of things in the final table that I consider to be bad. Especially heads up. I don't understand why he keeps blowing up the pots vs an aggro spewy player. Cada is known as a heads up specialist...but seriously played it so poorly.

Cada should have been like a 3 or 4 to 1 favorite against Moon heads up....the way he played it, he was probably a dog.

I'm sure Cada is a good player, but there's a lot he can learn...but that's what you can say about every player.

As for Moon, I don't understand why ppl are all over him. Like yes he played poorly. Anyone with poker sense knows it, but he's never been advertised as a great player. He's a fish, everyone knows it, he admits it himself...why is everyone knocking him. Shouldn't we be keeping the fish happy in this game. He did somethings that were really bad...but at the same time other pros did the same thing.

Eg. His AQ vs Steve's QQ hand...was a super overshove that will only get called when he's dominated...well Buchman did the exact same thing with AQ vs AK.

Watching the final table, the only players that didn't really make any clear mistake was Sauot, Ivey, and some of the guys that got knocked out early.

[Talking Poker]

I didn't read all of the above yet, so I apologize if this has been addressed, but the thing that tilted me the most was Moon's lie to his wife.

It's like a 234 board or something and there is > $40 million in the pot. It's $6 million more for him to call (with his horribly played KQ) and he folds. He then tells his wife:

-He folded QQ....
-BECAUSE he though his opponent had AK with a flush draw....
-and he thought he'd get there and didn't want to give him $6 million more.

WHAT
THE
FUCK???

Being embarrassed about your horrible play is one thing, but to make up a lie that makes you sound 10 times worse than saying "I got caught bluffing" is just ridiculous. I mean, the fact that that line could even make any amount of sense to him in his brain is just ridiculous.

As for the rest of the play, keep in mind, we were seeing a very small sample of the hands played. That may not make up for all of it, but it certainly could explain some of it. Like I don't have a problem with Ivey folding the JJ there at all. If it turned out he was up against QQ+/AK 90% of the time (could very well have been his read), it's a good fold. Only because people saw he was up against 77 are they being results oriented. If he was up against AA, people would say it was a great fold, and had he been up against AA and 4 bet shoved, people would say it was awful. I'm willing to give Phil Ivey a little bit of credit and say I'm sure he had a good reason for making the read he did and it was fine.

Schulman's comment about the A8 call on the other hand... wow. Just goes to show how huge of a nit he is. He and his Helmuth style gave him no chance to win, basically blinding down until it was 5 handed. Nice job moving up a few spots.