Kopp's Big Hand With Moon

[Reel Deal]

What's Kopp's background? Is he a pro?

[Zybomb]

I think he's a 6th year college student who plays a lot of cards, so classify him however

[Windbreaker]

Billy Kopp is a pro....he's patrolman35 on stars and DurangoDan35 on tilt.

[GTDawg]

If he had this and decided NOT to raise the flop isn't raising the turn kinda weird

I guess I'm just unsure of what hands would re-raise preflop (AA, KK, QQ, JJ?, TT?) vs just smooth calling. Then if Moon had one diamond, JJ or TT wouldn't bet out on that flop, right?

Of course, I dunno if TT or JJ (with a diamond) would re-raise the turn.

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Can't do that, we have 12.6 left and he's made it 6 mill, we could baby raise then fold but i just don't see the point of putting 2/3 our stack in then folding

If he (Kopp) calls the turn and the river is a blank, how does it play out? Moon has to bet the blank, right? So we fold to that (I'm assuming a simple call leaves us too low)? Man...I don't know if I can do that.
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I realize we have a flush -- but if Moon shoves the river what exactly do we beat?

Short of Moon open shoving, people still fold to a river blank?

[Talking Poker]

I actually think looking at this from Moon's side is more interesting. I mean, Kopps turn 3 bet shove bluff (and that's all that it was - less than 1% of the time he's getting a worse hand to call, and I think I'm being generous with that) was stupid. People make mistakes, and this was a biggie.

But look at this from Moon's side, sitting on 25 million chips to start the hand, flopping the 3rd nuts and then the board pairing on the turn. Assuming played as is preflop, then check/calling the flop and check raising the turn (all of which I think is fine), you've basically put what, 8 million of your stack in and have around 17 million behind. When Kopp 3 bet shoves there, I'd have to seriously consider laying it down.

I mean, Kopp's line is showing enormous strength. It's a stupid (well, reckless) bluff, as we've already said, so the majority of the time, he's going to have a very big hand. I think FH + better flush makes up a pretty huge part of his range, with semi-bluffing and value-shoving with worse making up much, much less of it.

The correct play may be to call the 12 million or so chip raise, but given everything, right there in that moment, I think I might have folded. I absolutely would have thought about it for a few minutes though - I know that much.

It's hard to say, but given the information we have, I think I would have folded.

[Wes]

c/r the turn and then folding to a shove when you have a flush would be utterly silly. And from what I've heard of people about Moon (since I have not watched a single minute of WSOP coverage this year) is that he is extremely loose/bad postflop so expecting him to fold a flush is terribad. I guess that is what influenced Kopp into shoving here because he just thought he hit the lottery against this donk and then didn't really comprehend that his flopped flush could lose to someone this bad.

I don't particularly like c/r the turn with a flush since it can slow down a lot of hands that are just going to value bet the river again if we call the turn or let him give up on his bluff to try to fold our marginal holdings out. I think overall that c/c the turn and c/r the river works out better overall with our entire range of hands that are value betting/bluffing the river than to c/r the turn just given with our most people play.

[JDMcNugent7]

You know Kopp's not bluffing here? Are you saying he is? Or just that his play only works as one?

[Windbreaker]

In an interview, Moon said the board didn't pair when the money went in...which is obviously wrong and could have changed his decision to call the shove.



In another interview, Billy Kopp defends his play and stands by it...which is pretty lol. In the interview he kind of goes back and forth between making it a value bet and bluff.



If you watch the hand play out again, Kopp doesn't look very confident at all. When he shoves, he kind of sighs like he has no choice. Just from his demeanor, I would not think he's full here.

[Kurn]

Kopp may not think he's bluffing here, but since a worse hand calls basically never, that's exactly what he's doing.

I agree with TP, though, that this thread would be more interesting hiding Kopp's hand and debating the hand from Moon's perspective.