Kopp's Big Hand With Moon

[Zybomb]

I agree with pretty much your entire analysis except for this part.
I think this turn is an autobet for several reasons

1) WE HAVE A FLUSH!!!

lol, but seriously beyond that, I think there's a ton of value to be gained by betting here from Kx, pair and diamond combos and simply one big diamond.

that being said I think his bet was a little too large. He bet about 2 mill into a 3.1 after betting 750k into a 1.6 on the flop. I think on the turn I bet more along the lines of 1.5 - 1.6 to convince lesser hands to continue

I think we're also not giving Moon enough consideration here. You mentioned he's an amateur and yes he is. He is an amateur on the verge of the Nov 9 bubble and has seemingly been playing pretty straight forward and being hit with the deck. I don't think he's going to get out of line with some weird check raise here unless he has a very big hand in the spot that he's in, so we don't really have to worry too much about FPS from him here.

That of course would lead to the last Q.... so if I bet the turn WTF do I do when Im c/red?

We're 6 handed so our hand is enormous obviously....but I did just mention that Moon is unlikely to get out of line in THIS fashion. Like you said 2s arent in his range much if at all and I dunno wtf he could have thats not a flush or better that plays it in this fashion. I assume I'd probably bet/call the turn (convincing myself he has some pair/large diamond combos enough of the time but will shut down the river with these hands since he doesnt want to risk the majority of his large stack when we've showed so much interested unless hes stronger than us) and then fold the river to a shove. My turn bet would've been smaller so the turn c/r would've been smaller also, leaving me with a large stack

Had this hand occurred against an aggressive player unaffected by the final table bubble approaching etc, then it'd change matters IMO

There's obviously nothing wrong with checking behind the turn to induce a bluff on the river (or a lighter call down) but i think we lose value from lots of hands/decline to protect our hand against large diamonds, but yes I think shoving is very bad.

[JDMcNugent7]

Is moon the huge dude that seems decent and is just a total cardrack? the big guy, whoever that is, hit's everything, seriously everything, and he admits it, says hes never ran so amazing before.


anyway, I think I'd bet turn and def call his raise and if the board doesnt change much call river. Obv I'd hope to have a better read and a better idea what to do if I'd been playing with the dude for hours

[Reel Deal]

Yeah, he's the big dude wearing the Saints cap.

[BlibbityBlabbity]

They showed Moon bluffing a couple of times PF, but never getting out of line at all postflop (beyond a continuation).

I think given the hands he has shown up with the CR by Moon is the end of the hand. No way he doesn't have the flush beat. If he had a 2, given his play in some other hands he either bets out or C/Cs.

I think a call on the turn would have been better given the paired board, crappy flush, and situation in the Main Event with 2 big stacks. Moon doesn't want to bluff much of his huge stack here either.

Crazy, man....Crazy!

[Reel Deal]

What's Kopp's background? Is he a pro?

[Zybomb]

I think he's a 6th year college student who plays a lot of cards, so classify him however

[Windbreaker]

Billy Kopp is a pro....he's patrolman35 on stars and DurangoDan35 on tilt.

[GTDawg]

The check/raise from would've gotten my attention, but I think I would've put Moon on a big pocket pair with a large diamond.

Would a re-raise just be ridiculously stupid pot control?

I mean, I think spewing $19m in chips with a 5-high flush may be silliness...but he did have a flush six-handed. That's gotta be the best hand 90% of the time.

Considering they were both huge chip leaders, I am not sure if re-raising Moon (obv something less than all-in) would've accomplished anything. If Moon comes back, then I'd guess we'd be folding or shoving...and if he just calls, then we are making the same decisions on the river.

In the situation, I'm guessing bet and then call is the most proper play since the final table is so close...but I think I would've come back with something stupid that got me pot committed if Moon re-raised again (or I would've had to do something silly on the river that got me committed).

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If the river is a blank (doesn't pair the board again, no diamond), is there anybody that doesn't bust out?

If the river is a diamond (or maybe even paint), I might be able to find a way to lay down to a possible boat or something....but I'm pretty sure I bust out on this hand.

[Wes]

If I was playing well the turn is probably a fold unless Kopp had some dynamic that would make Moon play back at him. This line is just so rarely taken as a bluff and there are not a whole lot of 2x hands a person should have here.

[Zybomb]

Boldness