Get the crying towel

ChipFish · #1 03-20-05, 06:41 PM

You fold to his push,
6-6 is alot more hope than anything else.
What are the odds he's holding something you have dominated at this point?
Even if he IS drawing, chances are he is drawing to a higher pair also.

Situation differs if YOU pushed and not him.
I wouldn't have "called" it.

Opinions differ is all.

Penguinfan · #2 03-20-05, 07:37 PM

I appreciate the advice, but let me get this straight, if my read was correct (and this is part of the game) and it was, I lay down the best hand to his draw? I admit I have alot to learn yet, but thats a tough sell.

ChipFish · #3 03-20-05, 07:43 PM

Yes.
This wasn't a cash-game.
The difference is, that if you go broke in a tourney, you can't re-buy.
It's a very unneccessary chance to take in this position.

Talking Poker · #4 03-20-05, 09:39 PM

This is exactly correct, and might be the "piece" you are missing right now. Think about it like this.

All things equal (stack sizes, blinds, reads, blah blah blah), let's say all you do is call all in when you are an 80% favorite to win the hand.... 80%! Do you think you are going to win the tourney?

Well.... the first time you do this, you're an 80% favorite to double up. The second time, you're an 80% to double up as well, but if you look at both times together, you're only a 64% favorite to still be alive (.8*.8=.64). Make this same play three more times and there's only a 33% chance you'll still be in the tourney! In other words, it's twice as likely you'll have been knocked out, instead of double up as a 4:1 favorite five times in a row.

So, what's the moral of this story? 3 things (IMO):
1. You need to accumulate chips so you don't get knocked out when you do lose big pots.
2. Playing small pots is a lot less dangerous that playing big ones.
3. If you do decide to call all in, you better be sure you are a BIG favorite. Because you're oging to get sucked out on eventually.

If you have trouble with the above points, stick to cash games. Pure percentage play is fine there, because you can reload when you get busted - which WILL happen.

Penguinfan · #5 03-20-05, 10:10 PM

I get it, but one hand doesn't know what happened on the previous hand and an 80% favorite is a good spot to be in. Your telling me you would not call off your stack if you KNEW you were and 80% favorite? I can't believe that you just wait for the stone cold nuts to put any chips in the pot

Go to the coin flip analogy everyone like to use, if you flip the coin 9 times and it's heads each time the odds are still 50/50 on the next flip, the cards don't know I just won as an 80% favorite so it's time to bust my nuts this time.

If your not gonna call as an 80% favorite when will you? Also, I didn't say "All I do is call as an 80% favorite" (quoting you), I still play my game otherwise, but when faced with a decision on the bubble as a 75% favorite I just don't see how the smart play is to lay it down, I'm willing to learn, but need more clarification, sorry.

Penguinfan · #6 03-20-05, 10:14 PM

On the flip side, you can't tell me putting your chips in as a 20/80 dog and hoping to catchis the path to glory and riches.

Talking Poker · #7 03-20-05, 11:05 PM

Usually, when people do this, they either don't realize they are a 4:1 dog, or they are trying to get you to fold. In poker, this is known as bluffing

ChipFish · #8 03-20-05, 10:16 PM

Here's an example.
You are in the WSOP with one spot left before the payouts.
If you bust out now you win $0, If you make one more place higher you are guaranteed $10,000.
Now, do you "call" all of your chips off, where you THINK you are an 80% favourite?

I don't.

Talking Poker · #9 03-20-05, 11:03 PM

Of course I would put my chips in if i KNEW I was an 80% favorite. Well, usually. There are times (say, on the bubble of major prizemoney) when I wouldn't.

But that wasn't my point. And of course the cards don't remember. My point was simply that a tournament is made up of a large number of hands, and even if you ALWAYS get your mioney in with the best hand, you can't expect to win every showdown. Eventually, you are going to get sucked out on. So, if you always put your money in with the best hand, you re always going to end up losing with the best hand.

Please note that this is NOT me saying you should start putting your money in with the worst hand... I'm simply trying to explain what you have been seeing lately, and if anything, suggest you become a little more selective when CALLING all in. People always seem to think calling all in as a favorite (no matter how slight the edge) is the correct play... and a lot of times, it's not. Not in a tournament.