Why o Why?!?!?!?!

Kurn · #1 03-15-05, 10:10 AM

Obviously, his call on the turn was wrong (thus a call you want him to make). However, the way you played the hand may have convinced him that he had more outs than he really did.

Preflop: You raise is too small. Make it at least 75 to go. You bet 50 into a 45 pot, giving a single caller better than 2:1. Once one player calls that, it's correct for the others to come along.

Flop: Unless you've been betting the flop when you hit and checking when you miss all night, you're risking giving all the draws on earth a free shot at you. You have to bet out here.

Turn: The problem with overbetting the turn is it now looks like you're trying to buy the pot with something like AQ. If he thinks that's the case, he believes he has 21 outs and is a 6:5 dog getting nearly 3:2 from the pot.

Now here's the crux of the matter. What you've done is forced him to make an FTOP error by calling. Great, right? You win 2/3 of the time you're called. But if you're going to whine the 1/3 of the time you lose, play the hand differently.

tazmision89 · #2 03-15-05, 04:49 PM

I know my mistake was on the flop. And since then...well I have gathered up my marbles and have taken a break from playing (3 days).

After reviewing everything, I fucked up my play by not betting the flop and making it a pot size bet. However, with that being said, after the turn came blank, I was very confident on my read and that is why I pushed my chips in.

Was it a bad play by me on the flop? Absolutely. Was it a horrible call on the guys part? Absolutely.

But when I did the math, I can not totally blame the guy for making the call (9 spades, 3 fives, 3 tens = 15 outs of 28 cards left = 53% favorite). The odds were in his favor to make his hand.

Hopefully, my break from cards will help me play better tonight.

Talking Poker · #3 03-15-05, 05:12 PM

Yes... GL tonight.

But as you said, the call, while not GOOD, wasn't THAT bad.

Kurn · #4 03-16-05, 09:49 AM

Huh?? 28 cards? He has 15 cards that make his hand out of 46 unseen cards (a 2.07:1 dog). The only cards he can count as not being left in the deck are the 2 in his hand and the 4 he can see on the board. Your calcultion makes the erroneous assumption that none of the cards he needs were dealt to other players in the hand. Where an unseen card is (dealt to another player or left in the deck) is irrelevant to your odds calculation. An unseen card is an unseen card is an unseen card.

I hope that's not how you normally calculate your outs.

tazmision89 · #5 03-17-05, 03:55 PM

Yes that is based on the assumption that none of his cards were dealt. And that is best case scenario. If you calculate 15 out of 46 unseen cards, of course that percentage will fall drastically. Some where around the area of 35%. Which would make him a 2 to 1 underdog going to the river. But I guess his feeling was that 1 out of 3 times he is going to make his hand.

Whatever.......It's over. And I need to get my groove back on.

Talking Poker · #6 03-17-05, 04:25 PM

Don't take this wong, but you claim to play professionally, right? I would think you would know how to correctly calculate pot odds... This is the first time I've ever seen anyone talk refer to 28 cards left or even suggest that the unknown cards dealt to other people should somehow be discounted. If you guys were palying cards face up, sure, but in the real world...