|
|
|
|
#1
01-05-09, 06:53 PM
|
||||
|
||||
Here is the official bet thread on PTP, so we can always find it easily. I'll put it in the first post too:
And yeah, I'm sure he'll let me escrow for you, but when you decide on a bet amount, tell me and I'll get him to book it. |
|
#5
01-05-09, 09:42 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
LOL, basically.
Nah..... every time you reserve shares and ship for shares and blah blah blah... the posts add up fast if you do a lot of staking. And I do a lot of staking. |
|
#6
01-05-09, 09:45 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
His response to your $10k post:
I'm gald, TBH... didn't really want to escrow that much anyway. Scaphism has like $120k invested in the site and is totally trustworthy, so no worries there. Seriously though... you taking this bet just cost me $1000, didn't it??? 
|
|
#7
01-05-09, 10:45 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
He has to play like 120k hands a month minimum at 1/2 to do this. He's going to burn out way before then I think, and when he is playing wsop he'll set himself back by quite a bit. Like April I'm sure I'll be fucking shitting my pants cause he'll be ahead of the pace, but like in october there's little chance he has that fortitude to continue doing it imo.
btw, I have to play roughly 150k hands a month to get to supernova elite at 2/4. Like 5k hands per day is going to get a little daunting unless I don't burn out on this 20 tabling business. |
|
#8
01-05-09, 11:11 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
I typed up a post in the main thread on ptp, but decided not to submit it.
Basically I figure that with a $150 ABI if he only plays 2000 MTTs on PS (and the rest on FTP) he will earn about 110k VPPs. That will leave him 890k short of SNE. At NL200 you can figure to earn .5 VPP per hand (which may be a bit low for Full Ring as I run about .56 at that level), so he will need to play something like 1.78mm hands, or about 148k per month on average or about 34250 hands per week. If he is playing some fast tables he can easily average 70 hands per table per hour, and if he can play 20 tables on average, that is 1400 hands per hour. So he only needs to play 25 hours per week and he gets there. 8 hours a day on Thursday Friday and Saturday gets it done, or he can play 4 hours a couple days when he busts out of tourneys then he can take days off. I think that Moss is highly motivated to make SNE just for the pure value of it. Automatically he will get entry into the WSOP ME (12.5k) and probably EPT Championship (20k) as well as WCOOPME (2.5k) and the equity he gains by not having to sell off pieces of these tourneys is pretty big, or he can sell off a bunch of his action and keep the cash. On top of that he will get 3.5mm FPPs worth .016 each at SNE ($56k) as well as 2k, 3k, 4k, 5k, 6k, and 8k worth like 75% in cash (28k) + Freeroll equity which for him is probably at least 5k. So the total value of SNE without the prop bet is approximately $125k on top of any profits made getting there. This should be really enough to motivate him and I think he can do it. If he can get to about 600k VPP, he can pretty much offset any prop loss with the milestone bonuses and FPP value. SNE really isn't that difficult if you can 18-24 table NL200+ proficiently (not lose 50k+ doing it) and you are dedicated (which I think someone that plays 2500+ MTTs per year pretty much is). I think that if I had the bankroll to do it, I could make it playing NL200 and NL400 even playing only after work. That may be pushing it but it really isn't that far out of the question if you have the drive to put in 4-6 hours per night |
|
#9
01-06-09, 03:18 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
TP I want to do 5k against him, but I only want to escrow it with you. Cool?
__________________
"Suffer the pain of discipline or suffer the pain of regret" "Rome wasn't built in a day" |
|
#10
01-06-09, 05:51 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
I'm not sure. Don't worry about escrowing with scaphism, if that's your concern. I'll post and ask though.
|
|
#11
01-07-09, 12:34 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
His response:
So yeah, ship me however much you want and I'll get this booked for you. Do me a favor and think this over good though before you do it - read jhill's post above. I'm still betting against him and Wes is betting $10k, but I'd still feel badly if me pointing this out to you ended up costing you $5k. Let me know. I'll have him book it after I receive your $$. |
|
#12
01-08-09, 03:43 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Still want this bet? Ship to me (FT preferred, believe it or not) if you do.
|
|
#14
01-09-09, 11:59 AM
|
||||
|
||||
|
I don't think you can...
|
|
#15
01-09-09, 09:38 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
He's going to post updates on his progress a couple of times per week . I'll link it in the OP too.
Latest update, through 1/8: 26,318 VPPs |
|
#17
01-11-09, 10:07 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Wes... Moss says you haven't shipped the $10k for the escrow yet and aren't replying to PMs. scaphism2's FT account is good to go. He says you can escrow it with me if you prefer, but just ship to scaph, IMO.
|
|
#18
01-13-09, 11:50 AM
|
||||
|
||||
|
BTW... I fully expect him to be AHEAD of pace for at least a few months...
|
|
#19
01-18-09, 10:35 AM
|
||||
|
||||
|
He's well ahead of pace now (as we expected at this point)... a little more than I'd like though:
1/2 7017 vpps 1/5 15619 vpps 1/8 26318 VPPS 1/10 33559 vpps 1/11 36921 vpps 1/17 53941 vpps |
|
#21
12-29-09, 08:14 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Brutal.
Also, I shipped JD's $. I didn't really like that $5k sitting in my account all year, honestly. I always needed to remember that it was there and wasn't to be touched. |
|
#22
12-30-09, 01:17 AM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Insane
I had forgotten about this. I can't imagine he had a very fulfilling year, but I’ve got to hand to him for determination. Hopefully he uses the money to recharge his batteries and do something – anything -- other than just jump up in stakes.
I count myself fortunate that I didn't have it together to take any action on this, because I would have bet big against him. Even reading the thread and following it all play out, it is still hard to believe he could do this.
__________________
http://www.vegastripreport.com/ |
|
#24
12-30-09, 03:44 AM
|
||||
|
||||
|
son of a bitch, saw this thread and really thought I had 10k coming my way that totally forgot about.
being results oriented, it seems really dumb to have bet against a guy making all his own rules and restrictions. I mean we're basically betting that he thinks he can play way more than he actually can. How should we know?
__________________
"Suffer the pain of discipline or suffer the pain of regret" "Rome wasn't built in a day" |
|
#25
12-30-09, 10:40 AM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Actually, the people betting against him made 90% of the rules, and I still think this was an incredibly tough bet for him. It came down to the wire, and he admitted to considering quitting at least a couple of times. Clearly it wasn't a sure thing for us, but I still think it was a good bet.
|
 |
|
|
Hybrid Mode
