Help me get the big picture (possibly long)

[Penguinfan]

This was in reply to me saying I needed to win a specific hand at a specific point.

SWA, I think you missed my intention. I understand odds, variance and pot odds. What I think is missing from the equasion is you don't get to play the same scenario with the same player with the same cards and the same chips with the same thing on the line over and over until the odds bear you out and you are a long term winner.

When all your chips during any given tourney are in the middle, it doesn't matter how big a favorite you are, what matters AT THAT POINT AND TIME, is winning that hand.

When you get drawn out on they don't let you run it 10 times so you can win 8 of them, they run the cards exactly ONCE and you live and die with those results.

So the way you figure the long term +EV of any situation, it doesn't really matter if you lose that hand.

What is the "long term" anyway, 100 hands, 1000, 10,000, 100,000. I'm sure Phil Ivey has played a million hands, but thay still haven't let him go back to 2003 when the Main Event was 10 handed and all he had to do was dodge a huge suckout against Moneymaker when Ivey held 9's full. We all know Money hits the ace on the river and the rest is history.

Would Phil Ivey get his chips in in that spot EVERY TIME, you better believe he would, in the "long term" is it a good play, of couse. Have they let him go back and (at least be a huge favorite to) win a Main Freaking Event bracelet? No, and they are not gonna.

If they let me run my AA against your AK until one of us are homeless, of couse I will wish you luck sleeping on the street tomorrow, but until there is a way to win that hand WHEN IT COUNTS THE MOST luck will play a bigger part than anyone wants to admit.