SJay's Sportsbetting Thread

[sjay2k]

Tip: AFL (Sep 12) -- Western Bulldogs v Sydney, bet $300 at 1.84

This is the second round of finals in the AFL, which is an elimination round. The Bulldogs finished 3rd with a record of 15-6 (1 draw) and lost last week in a preliminary final by 51 points against second-seeded Hawthorn. Sydney were 12-9 (1 draw) this year, and eliminated the Kangaroos (7th seed) last week.

The Bulldogs have beaten Sydney in both games this year, by margins of 18 and 16 points (the latter result being slightly over a month ago). I think the Bulldogs are a better football team, as this year's results have indicated. I think the market is overreacting from last week's results. However, Hawthorn are incredibly good and the Kangaroos are mediocre at best.

The game is being played at the MCG, which is not the Bulldogs' home ground, but being a Melbourne-based team they will still enjoy a significant home ground advantage.

[sjay2k]

Tip: Soccer (Sep 10) -- Australia v Uzbekistan, bet $200 at 2.22


My soccer expert friend estimates Australia will be able to pull off a win about 60% of the time, making the line of 2.22 far too generous to pass up. I generally don't bet big unless I understand the sport itself, and since I haven't watched either team recently, I'll keep it small for this match.

[JDMcNugent7]

This is awesome plz keep this up, I want to get alot more into sports betting.

Are there any forums you frequent often to get these tips? I've been looking at a few lately but I'm not on my reg comp now but I'll link them here later. There are people who write up every bet they make before they do it and are up a ridiculous amount of $ that I plan to just mirror, like I will many of your bets.

[sjay2k]

Links please.

Also I don't get my tips from forums, but I often will investigate on certain forums (bigfooty.com.au for AFL or sbrforum.com for NBA or the forums at betfair.com for tennis) to confirm my thoughts and to search for other relevant information.

[JDMcNugent7]

theres a few guys there that have ridiculous records on betting and post before every game they bet if they are going to count it toward theyre running record on the site. I try to just mirror them but sometimes they don't post for awihle since they're selective about what they bet.

[sjay2k]

Result: +$244

Overall: +$13,075

[sjay2k]

Result: +$252

Overall: +$13,327

[sjay2k]

Tip: AFL (Sep 22) -- Simon Black v Joel Selwood, Brownlow medal votes H2H, bet $1000 at 1.8


In each game of the season (22 rounds), the umpires assign 3, 2 and 1 votes to three players. These votes are counted and the winner is awarded the Brownlow Medal.

Simon Black is a star midfielder for the Brisbane Lions. He won the Medal in 2002 with 25 votes, and surprised everyone last year (including betting markets) with 22 votes. Joel Selwood received 2 votes in his rookie season last year. Moreover he plays for the Geelong Cats, which are a superstar team. The 1st, 2nd and 5th favourite players to win the medal overall all play for Geelong and will limit Selwood's (currently 9th favourite overall) votes.

I have found 8 predictions for this year's medal. Seven predict Black will receive more votes (by margins of between 2 and 12 votes), while one predicts the two will draw.

Simon Black is shortening in all Brownlow-related markets. This is particularly important considering the information-sensitive nature of this market (e.g. people might know the result). A few days ago, Black traded at 42, but traded at 32 today, with a ton of money trying to back him. Selwood has experienced the opposite trend, as there is a substantial amount being offered at odds of 46. In this H2H market, Black opened with all sportsbooks at 1.85, and is down to 1.6 with some (1.5 on Betfair!). TAB still has him at $1.80, which I believe is outstanding value.

[sjay2k]

Result: +$800

Overall: +$14,127



Apologies to JD, who wanted in on this bet, but Black's odds faded pretty hard after I got my money on, so I couldn't get anything reasonable matched. I wished I'd bet more on this one myself.

[sjay2k]

Tip: AFL (Sep 27) -- Geelong v Hawthorn, bet $200 at 1.45


This is the Grand Final match. Geelong have won 23/24 games this year, including winning its game against Hawthorn. Geelong are simply an incredible side. Hawthorn's odds are artificially short after an impressive win last week. But Geelong (reigning premiers) are the absolute stones, and they consistently fend off the best teams in the league. I might bet some more on this match.

[sjay2k]

Tip: AFL (Sep 27) -- Geelong -15.5 v Hawthorn, bet $200 at 1.93

Put this spread bet on a couple of days ago, just putting it up here before the game starts.

[New Guy]

I need some football (American) locks Whacha guys thinking?

[sjay2k]

Result: -$400

Overall: +$13,727