SJay's Sportsbetting Thread

[Talking Poker]

This is great. Impressive results.

If you aren't able to edit your post by the time betfair sends you the missing info, PM it to me and I'll insert it for you.

I may mirror your bets for a while if I can get similar lines on .

[MAYHEM45]

Total Profits?

[sjay2k]

Total profits from above: $12,831

Not sure about all results including smaller bets, but I'll try to keep a running tally going.

[sjay2k]

Tip: AFL (Sep 12) -- Western Bulldogs v Sydney, bet $300 at 1.84

This is the second round of finals in the AFL, which is an elimination round. The Bulldogs finished 3rd with a record of 15-6 (1 draw) and lost last week in a preliminary final by 51 points against second-seeded Hawthorn. Sydney were 12-9 (1 draw) this year, and eliminated the Kangaroos (7th seed) last week.

The Bulldogs have beaten Sydney in both games this year, by margins of 18 and 16 points (the latter result being slightly over a month ago). I think the Bulldogs are a better football team, as this year's results have indicated. I think the market is overreacting from last week's results. However, Hawthorn are incredibly good and the Kangaroos are mediocre at best.

The game is being played at the MCG, which is not the Bulldogs' home ground, but being a Melbourne-based team they will still enjoy a significant home ground advantage.

[sjay2k]

Tip: Soccer (Sep 10) -- Australia v Uzbekistan, bet $200 at 2.22


My soccer expert friend estimates Australia will be able to pull off a win about 60% of the time, making the line of 2.22 far too generous to pass up. I generally don't bet big unless I understand the sport itself, and since I haven't watched either team recently, I'll keep it small for this match.

[JDMcNugent7]

This is awesome plz keep this up, I want to get alot more into sports betting.

Are there any forums you frequent often to get these tips? I've been looking at a few lately but I'm not on my reg comp now but I'll link them here later. There are people who write up every bet they make before they do it and are up a ridiculous amount of $ that I plan to just mirror, like I will many of your bets.

[sjay2k]

Links please.

Also I don't get my tips from forums, but I often will investigate on certain forums (bigfooty.com.au for AFL or sbrforum.com for NBA or the forums at betfair.com for tennis) to confirm my thoughts and to search for other relevant information.

[sjay2k]

Result: +$244

Overall: +$13,075

[sjay2k]

Result: +$252

Overall: +$13,327

[sjay2k]

Tip: AFL (Sep 22) -- Simon Black v Joel Selwood, Brownlow medal votes H2H, bet $1000 at 1.8


In each game of the season (22 rounds), the umpires assign 3, 2 and 1 votes to three players. These votes are counted and the winner is awarded the Brownlow Medal.

Simon Black is a star midfielder for the Brisbane Lions. He won the Medal in 2002 with 25 votes, and surprised everyone last year (including betting markets) with 22 votes. Joel Selwood received 2 votes in his rookie season last year. Moreover he plays for the Geelong Cats, which are a superstar team. The 1st, 2nd and 5th favourite players to win the medal overall all play for Geelong and will limit Selwood's (currently 9th favourite overall) votes.

I have found 8 predictions for this year's medal. Seven predict Black will receive more votes (by margins of between 2 and 12 votes), while one predicts the two will draw.

Simon Black is shortening in all Brownlow-related markets. This is particularly important considering the information-sensitive nature of this market (e.g. people might know the result). A few days ago, Black traded at 42, but traded at 32 today, with a ton of money trying to back him. Selwood has experienced the opposite trend, as there is a substantial amount being offered at odds of 46. In this H2H market, Black opened with all sportsbooks at 1.85, and is down to 1.6 with some (1.5 on Betfair!). TAB still has him at $1.80, which I believe is outstanding value.

[sjay2k]

Result: +$800

Overall: +$14,127



Apologies to JD, who wanted in on this bet, but Black's odds faded pretty hard after I got my money on, so I couldn't get anything reasonable matched. I wished I'd bet more on this one myself.

[jillaj]

Are you able to get any of these lines on intertops?

[Talking Poker]

Honestly, I haven't checked yet. Let me check the latest one now.

Doesn't look like they even cover the AFL. Hopefully sjay will start handicapping real sports soon.

[jillaj]

I guess I will start looking for a site that covers these damn games that allows US Americans.

[MAYHEM45]

The AFL is the coolest fucking sport ever invented, it's a shame I didnt get to catch a game live.

[melioris]

qft. Hating the AFL is like chopping your pecker off.

[sjay2k]

Fwiw, you can get 1.469 on Geelong at Pinnacle Sports. Although I think I like the spread bet on Pinnacle (Geelong -15.5) at 1.98 better.

[jillaj]

Thanks I will try to get some money on pinnacle now.