Poker Math - What they don't get

[PShabi]

Please fill in the village idiot:

What is ICM?

[Talking Poker]

I will let Kurn tackle this. It's quite awesome, but somewhat complex. Has to do with chip values in SNGs, so us cash game folks don't really have to worry about it. But guys like Kurn and Windbreaker who can master it can grind out pretty nice profits playing SNGs in the long run.

Did you guys know Windbreaker is considered one of the best 45 man tourney players out there? I didn't, until I caught people talking about him at PTP. Pretty sweet.

[Windbreaker]

I wouldn't say I'm an expert with ICM. ICM stands for independent chip model. In a cash game, every chip is worth face value. In a tournament, this is not the same.

What the ICM does is factors in the prize distribution in comparison to your relative chip stack versus the other players still in the tournament.

This provides you with your current equity in a tournament.

Knowing your current equity in the tournament, your hole cards, and estimating your opponents calling range....you can find small edges by learning proper pushing/folding strategy in later stages of a tournament. This also works if you are the caller instead of the person shoving.

Having said all that, I have never used an icm calculator before in my life. When you are playing, you generally just need to estimate your general hand value vs your opponent(s).

In general, weak players either open shove or fold too much or too little. And also don't call often enough (especially from the blinds and late position).

[Kurn]

To add to what Windbreaker says, ICM was developed the end result a research paper (may have been an advanced degree thesis, but I'm not sure) at The University of Southern California.

A simple training program for ICM can be downloaded through

SNGs are unique in that you will be at or near the bubble much more often than in MTTs, and that you and your opponents will rarely have sufficient chips for multi-street play.

With blinds high vs stack sizes, ICM takes into account the importance of fold equity in calculating the overall equity of your hand hot and cold. To use ICM well, you need to be pretty accurate in determing your opponents' push/call ranges.

Real ICM wonks can qoute you EV numbers for given ranges vs estimated opponents' ranges. I can't do that. What I do understand is the logic, for example, fold equity varies based on relative stack sizes, so the same opponent will call a shove with a much wider range than you'd expect if his stack is much larger/much smaller than yours.

My favorite counter-intuitive example is the bvb situation where the SB shoves any two cards. When the blinds are high, this move is always +CEV because the BB will fold x% of hands. The BB can never adopt a strategy that will make the move -CEV, the best he can do is reduce the CEV to 0 by calling with any two cards..

[Invigilator]

Although I understand this, it still gives me a headache.

[Talking Poker]

Would studying ICM help with my HU SNG play?

[Windbreaker]

It can't hurt, but it will only have a minimal to no impact on your play. In heads up sngs, you probably should play normal to start...then when blinds get high, just push every small edge you can.

[Kurn]

I would think it would only be marginally valuable. HU is a different animal.