ME Final 9

[Wes]

it's the WSOP main event, not 25/50 online. Most of these people don't even 3bet anything outside of the top 7% of hands unless they get to some shortstacking threshold where they push more. Perhaps watching the past couple WSOPs would clarify this point.

And saying that Phil Hellmuth, or small ball, can't win the WSOP main event is kind of dumb. 90% of the field is a retard with 10k. Odds are that one of the majority will win it.

[omahilo]

phil hellmuth continues to show he is one of the best poker players despite these fields... he finished very well at this yrs ME.

He also almost won another bracelet (would of been #12) in the HORSE event right before the ME. to say he couldnt win the main event is crazy. If one pro could do it I think it would be him just for the fact he does play so tight and lets all the idiots eliminate themselves. Like storm said, the ME is basically like the sunday millions are stars except the buyin is 10K instead of $215. Its a crapshoot and 90% of the field are donks.

[Fildy]

at least 90%

[Kurn]

I'm certainly not denigrating his play.

I didn't say he can't win, I said it will be very hard. He turned down a hugely +EV flop on (I think) day 4 when he had something like a pair + FD + gut when playing a M of less than 10.

We've all seen him with a 9 BB stack raise to 3x and fold on the flop when he misses. Superior skill can only compensate for giving away so many chips.

He's a great player. he reads people as well as anybody and sets long term traps based on what he's seen. But the minefield of 8,000+ players slants the odds in favor of the gamblers.

The math of the game is such that you can't play Sklansky TPFAP style and win huge events. As I said, a 700-1000 person WPT event he's going to win his share, I just don't think he's got enough gamble in him for the ME.

Just an opinion. If I'm wrong it will neither be the first nor the last time.

No matter how big your edge, you only get so many +EV shots.