30 day $5k from 5.50 and under SNG prop bet...

[Talking Poker]

Any other thoughts on this?

Dude is offering 2:1 that he can do it. In other words, bet $200 against him to win $100 if he fails. All money is being escrowed ahead of time and he's even got a webcam set up.

I'm in for AT LEAST $200, but I'm seriously considering making this a big bet.

I think even a SNG sicko could only pull this off one month in 4 (3:1), at the best.

is the thread, if anyone wants to read more about it or get in on the action. He's only going to run this if he stands to win at least $5k ($10k wagered), and it's not there yet.

[2Tone]

Do you know/trust the guy? Winning that amount at those stakes in 30 days strikes as extremely unlikely. I'm shocked he'd be offering 2:1 -- 8:1 to 10:1 would seem more realistic to me.

My only caution would be the "too good to be true" factor and the amount he wants to bet -- $5k is decent amount, enough to go through a fair amount of trouble to set people up for. What is the risk this is an elaborate scam?

[melioris]

I agree with 2tone, this has to be some kind of angle shoot.

[Talking Poker]

0% chance it's a scam in the stealing people's money regard. He's having one of the mosty trusted people on the site hold all money (both sides) in escrow. That guy has like $44k staked out right now, so if he were to roll, the 5 or 10 or 15k from this would be fully recoverable from his investments.

So it's a 0% roll risk.

The only thinkg I'm worried about is if he has figured out some sort of loophole that is going to allow him to do that that no one has thought of. I just have to think SOMEONE would have figured it out by now. There was concern about the 180s, so he said he won't play any of them.

If anyone wants action on this and doesn't have an account there yet, I can do it for you (this will likely start before you get your account approved to post there). I'm in for $200 to win $100 right now, and amd still seriously considering increasing it. I keep thinking I must be missing something, but can't figure what it is.

[Windbreaker]

Seems like you're getting way the best of it to me.

If you look at Spacegravy's sharkscope (he's a SNG Icon guy who is well ahead of pace for SNE this year), the most SNGs he played in a month is less than 3500.

Even if the guy can play that much, he needs an ROI of 26% in order for him to pull it off.

In addition, he stipulates that all tourneys are 5.50 or below. This eliminates the 6.50 buy in for 45 man SNGs...this is a huge disadvantage against him.

Too me...looking at his his OPR and Sharkscope, there is almost no way he can pull this off without some angleshoot.

I think if you use the sharkscope leaderboard....you can tell this task is nearly impossible without insane volume.

[thrash1294]

DID he state that he would only play single table sngs?
Also what if he played in a$5.50 sng to satty to a mtt then cashed big in that?would that count?

[Talking Poker]

Go read the .

No sattys. No MTTs (well, MTT SNGs, like 45 mans, but not true large field MTTs). Not even 180s.

[Talking Poker]

I agree completely. I think I'm gonna bump up to $500 myself. Want some action?

It's not an angleshoot (that I can think of). The money is safe, it will be him playing (webcam), etc. I think he really thinks he can do it.