How Lucky Do You Think You Are At Poker?

[2Tone]

Interesting question, especially because of all of the related topics it brings up. And if two players play any “significant” (defined how?) number of hands, how far a delta can there really be between the 1 and 100 on your luck scale? I mean in theory, if we should all be at exactly 50 over the long (defined how?) term, right?

I’m going to put myself at 68%. At the tables, I’d say it is only 53%, but I’m going to factor in the convenience factor of me being able to play on my way home from work on any given night, being in a financial position to afford the swings, a patient wife, etc.

Note: There’s also a large Quads or better jackpot at my local room. It’s been as high as $20K at one point for a royal, but usually is around $5k or so. If I hit this (maybe even tonight!) I’ll adjust this percentage way up . But if I happen to hit a royal in a home game and get nothing (like the last and only time I got one, when I was rewarded with a dining credit to the Imperial Palace restaurant of my choice ), I’m cutting that percentage in half.

[MAYHEM45]

wat?

[PShabi]

I'm not going to try and quantify it, but holy shit, I was a fucking luckbox at the beginning. Either that, or people really sucked cause I made a fuckton of money (relatively speaking) when I didn't really know what I was doing.

[JDMcNugent7]

well people sucked alot more than they do now thats for sure. if we could play with our knowledge of the game now 2-3 years ago i know i'd be a millionare, i think alot of ppl here would.

[Talking Poker]

I agree with JD, but had a similar start to shabi.

I pretty much tore up 6 max limit from Day 1. I had a pretty solid understanding of the fundamentals of the game - postion, aggression, etc), but if I started TODAY with that same skill set, I think I'd be breakeven at best. Back then, the average player was just BAD, so winning was easy.

I also like 2Tone's response. If I factor in everything in life with regards to poker, and not just my luck at the tables, I've got to be well into the 70s or maybe even 80s.

Unfortunately, for the last 2 weeks, I've been in the 30s at the tables. But I know it's just a matter of time until that swings to the 60s, so it's all good.

[melioris]

ding ding, winner.

at poker I probably am way more lucky than not, but this year it sure feels like hard fucking work is the only thing keeping the bad luck from cleaning me out. That said, every one of us that has the ability and opportunity to belong to this online community and contribute on a regular basis is far more lucky in life than not, so a little unlucky at the pokering still doesn't even it out.

[Invigilator]

56.3

[Reel Deal]

Yeah, while at poker I might be around 50.1%, in life I'm well into the 90s.

[Talking Poker]

I was only quoting my "poker life" number. My LIFE number is definitely in the 90s. I have it good, and I don't take it for granted.

[juiCe[3x]]

I think im around 50%, maybe alittle lower since I haven't had that one big tourney hit. As for life...it seems like im at 25% right now lol but its probably closer to the 60's...just at the 30's of things that I really want but just wasn't meant to be.

[Kurn]

Lifetime I just assume I'm around the mean. Maybe the Moneymake Millionaire thing puts me on the lucky side a bit. It takes a little extra good fortune to get through that many folks to even have made it to the final 27.

My father, who got me interested in horse betting when I was a kid, always said after losing a photo finish "the pictures even out in the end."

[sjay2k]

Hmmm, kinda interesting most people think they are >50%. Not what i was expecting.

[bdawg31]

I thought a little more on this. Someone had mentioned the timing factor of luck and that is huge.

People talk about the 'long run' things working out. Well, sometimes there isn't a 'long run'. Without getting into too much detail (TP will know the hand i am talking about) - i lost a coinflip (my AK vs 10s) that will probably be the biggest coinflip hand i lose, ever.

Now, 'long term' - i might win the next 10 hands i get it in with AK vs 10s. But, that will not make up for the coinflip hand i lost in terms of importance. The math itself will work out and i will win and lose my fair share of AK vs 10s hands. But the luck factor comes into play because of the timing of me being 'unlucky' (or not lucky - depending on your point of view).

Look at some WSOP champions. They got on hot streaks, lucky streaks if you will, and became world champions. Sure, 'long term' their luck will change and they will lose their fair share of hands. But, so what? They were lucky when they needed to be.

[melioris]

But isn't this what we are talking about with "luck" in poker. Of course everyone is roughly even, particularly now when folks play more hands in a month than some pros played live over their entire career. Sample size is everything.

But timing, that is when the luck actually come in.