How Lucky Do You Think You Are At Poker?

[Talking Poker]

This is a tough question.

My honest answer is in the 48-49% neighborhood (it feels much worse), but then I look back at sattying into the WSOP, Aruba, Bahamas (not as impressive - bigger buy in), making two WSOP Final Tables, and so on and so forth.... yeah, it's been a while, but each of those was a huge hit where I didn't necessarily get lucky, but I didn't get unlucky - and that's lucky. I think those few incidents alone probably swing me above 50%. So I'll revise and go with:

52%

Even though it feels like 42-45%.

[JDMcNugent7]

65% to start out and when I didn't know what I was doing
this year like 22% seriously, biggest downswing of my life by far this whole year losing every big pot somehow

[lightfungus]

JD, I am a big fan, and I know how hard you work (much harder than I). But that makes me feel better...honestly.

Just out of cuiriousity, who would everyone put in the 90th percentile and above? Gold? Moneymaker?

[Kurn]

Gold and Moneymaker the luckiest? No way. Jerry Yang is the man.

[Talking Poker]

*Waiting patiently for bdawg to chime in*

[bdawg31]

Ha, i think i am streaky. Early on, when i first started (right before the boom), i suspect i was 50%. Then i got hot - won a few tourneys, then won a few BIG tourneys - i would say i was 60-70% (and as sort of stated earlier - you can be 'lucky' by having series of better hands hold up, or just catch that one big break) during that miracle run.

Then it caught up with me, and i would say i ran lower - i am going to say low-to-mid-40s overall (this is when i had that huge losing-coinflip streak), with some even lower stats (and a few peaks mixed in). I made it worse because i had not learned to handle that kind of run and it played bad on top of that.

The last year (most of 2007) i was just floundering around so i wouldnt even try to quatify that.

I suspect that I am now running right around 50 again. I am back to rebuilding my roll and grinding away. I have had my up and down nights. I feel i am running a little below that in tourney play and maybe lately slightly above that in my cash play.

I guess i should say this is all my PERCEPTION of my luck - logically, deep down, i know that my 'luck factor' has been 50 over this entire run.

[bdawg31]

More on 'luck'. I strongly believe one can 'make their own luck' - or at least the perception of being lucky. In Doyle's book, he mentions how people always considered him a 'lucky' player. He said this was due to the fact that he is constantly pushing the play, being aggressive, raising and re-raising. So, he will at times get his money in with the worst of it. But, people remember when he 'gets lucky' and hits his cards. That combination along with the constant winning of small pots through aggression makes him appear lucky (and i would guess lucky too).

I know that during my 'lucky' period - i was pretty fearless (maybe because i did not know any better). Even playing the cash games (i played higher limit) - i would ram and jam. I am sure people thought i was 'lucky' when i would be raising and re-raising on semi-bluffs and i would at times catch. Same with tourneys - i had zero fear of busting. I would often have what i referred to as 'aggressors remorse'.

As i got more experienced, i also noticed (and still do) that i have less and less 'aggressors remorse'. Which means in theory i am not getting my money in as often with the worst of it. BUT, i am also noticing that i don't get nearly as many bigger cashes as i used to.

When you put this along with when i did have what i believe was a bad run, i started playing in fear of my bankroll.

I am rambling.

[MAYHEM45]

I'm not sure what I said when i first answered this question, but probably 55-60% lifetime. Ive made a decent amount and still really don't know wtf I'm doing A LOT of the time.