Step 3...

[BlibbityBlabbity]

Bad wording on my part maybe.....

The "rare outcome" is that you (or anyone) LOSE(s) with the much better (they have 1-3 outer) hand when all the chips go in. Was not saying it was rare that YOU went in with the best hand, from what I have seen I would agree that is not the case.

I was far to tired earlier this morning to make that kind of jab.

[Talking Poker]

I understand. And poor wording on my reply too.

I guess what I'm saying is for a player who typically has the best hand when his chips go all in, assuming he doesn't win the tourney, he's typically going to have the best hand when he gets knocked out, ya know?

It's logical enough. Say all you ever do is push your chips (against bigger stacks) in when you are an 80% favorite. The chances of you surviving the first all in are good - 4:1 in your favor. The chances of you surviving the second one are the same... but the chances of you surviving BOTH of those is .8 * .8 = 64%. Do it a 3rd time and the chances of you surviving all 3 is now down to .64 * .8 = 51%.

Each time, you're a big favorite, but after just three all ins, when you look at them all together, you're only even money to still be in the tournament.

Obviously this is a very simplified explanation, but I guess what I'm saying is even for a guy who routinely gets his chips in with the goods, chances are he's going to get knocked out (after all, everyone but 1 guy does) - even though he had the best hand when his chips went in the middle.