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#1
02-03-05, 02:26 AM
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Wow, bad beat....one of you two better move that to the right section
 Agree about losing when you are a huge favorite. Still sucks but at least you know that that is VERY rare outcome. |
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#2
02-03-05, 02:33 AM
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You haven't watched me play nearly enough poker.
I'm serious. It's rare that I get knocked out with my chips going in and me holding the worst hand. Sure, it happens, but more often than not, I go out as the favorite. That doesn't really surprise me though. Usually when my chips go in the middle, I'm ahead, so it only stands to reason that for the hands when I get knocked out, that's still the case. And no, I'm not pulling a Hellmuth here and saying if there was no luck in poker, I'd win every tournament. I'm just saying it is indeed *not* rare for me to get knocked out as a big favorite. I think my mistake in this tourney was playing a little too tight. I didn't accumulate enough chips earlier on when I should have. I had NOTHING dealt to me in late position, so I figured I'd fold instead of steal for a while and hopefully be able to steal more (higher blinds) later because of it. It was working (they folded to my steals), but I'm pretty sure I left some chips on the table.... Then again, you never know. |
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#3
02-03-05, 07:49 AM
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Bad wording on my part maybe.....
The "rare outcome" is that you (or anyone) LOSE(s) with the much better (they have 1-3 outer) hand when all the chips go in. Was not saying it was rare that YOU went in with the best hand, from what I have seen I would agree that is not the case. I was far to tired earlier this morning to make that kind of jab. Last edited by BlibbityBlabbity; 02-03-05 at 08:14 AM. |
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#4
02-03-05, 11:35 AM
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I understand. And poor wording on my reply too.
I guess what I'm saying is for a player who typically has the best hand when his chips go all in, assuming he doesn't win the tourney, he's typically going to have the best hand when he gets knocked out, ya know? It's logical enough. Say all you ever do is push your chips (against bigger stacks) in when you are an 80% favorite. The chances of you surviving the first all in are good - 4:1 in your favor. The chances of you surviving the second one are the same... but the chances of you surviving BOTH of those is .8 * .8 = 64%. Do it a 3rd time and the chances of you surviving all 3 is now down to .64 * .8 = 51%. Each time, you're a big favorite, but after just three all ins, when you look at them all together, you're only even money to still be in the tournament. Obviously this is a very simplified explanation, but I guess what I'm saying is even for a guy who routinely gets his chips in with the goods, chances are he's going to get knocked out (after all, everyone but 1 guy does) - even though he had the best hand when his chips went in the middle. |
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#5
02-03-05, 03:21 PM
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switching gears
I think i make this mistake as well. I usually play very tight in tourneys, especially early on. But, i have a tough time recognizing when a table is ultra-tight and loosing up a bit and playing a more loose/aggressive style. It sounds like you tried to make that adjustment later on, though. And I am not suggesting switching gears when the blinds are 10/20 or whatever - but maybe a little sooner than i normally would.
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#6
02-03-05, 07:56 PM
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My big problem is when I do this and get caught up in some expensive mess or worse yet bust myself out of the tourney, I'm MORE mad at myself for not being patient than I am when I lose with KK and am mad at myself for not being aggressive enough before hand... It's a fine line, ya know?
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