Hsp $500k

[Talking Poker]

You understand that the number of times you run the board (the river card, in this case) doesn't change th EV of the situation, right? Whether they run it once, twice, or 15 times, the long term EV os the situation remains exactly the same. All running it more than once does is lower the short term variance by basically forcing the monetary results of the hand to be slightly closer to the actual equity each player has in the pot.

I would think the results of the running it three times alone would answer your question as to why Antonius would say OK.

[melioris]

if anyone is reading this thread then they shouldn't worry about spoilers. That hand was incredible. Wow. I was actually feeling sorry for JG when the K came. TP, your boy-toy handled the soul sucking defeat well.

But by far the best part of the show was Doyle getting grumpy at the end and wanting the game to move faster. He is such a grumpy old man, I love it. And then Gabe riffing that Doyle was missing "Big Valley". I laughed my ass off at that. That show was awesome and I can totally see DB watching it.

[Kurn]

Running it more than once reduces variance, not EV, since in effect, it is akin to playing the same hand 3 times. The more often you run the hand the closer the immediate result comes to the actual EV. While PA (prior to the running of the rivers) would have probably preffered to only see one or two rivers, he yields to Golds suggestion for the same reason you don't tap the glass. He wants to keep the fish happy and playing, and if running it 3 times accomplishes that, then PA is happy to oblige as he believes he will take Gold's money in the long run.

Also, PA's demeanor after the hand was beyond awesome. That in and of itself tells me he has what it takes to be the best in the world.

[melioris]

Question: were they deep enough for JG to call the turn bet assuming implied odds and if so, does he get paid off when the river pairs the board?

[Talking Poker]

If I'm Gold, I smooth call there for sure. By making that huge overbet shove, you fold out everything you beat (except for maybe a lower set) and get called by ONLY AJ. If he called, he certainly could have gotten SOME amount of money out of Antonius when the board paired, or lost a lot less if it didn't.

[BlibbityBlabbity]

I like the 3 times in this case since even if JG gets lucky he is likely only doing it once out of 2 OR 3 runs. If you run it twice you run a greater risk of not making anything off of the nuts in this case (two lucky cards or one lucky card by JG, while making PA have to get lucky to make a profit by holding up TWICE). By running it three times, you make JG have to hit twice to take more than 1/2 the pot from you and hit THREE times to scoop almost assuring you at least something out of the pot.

I see the run it twice making more sense in a coinflip. My first thought when I saw this was why the hell would he want to run it more than once anyway, but for that much money you don't want to see a sick beat card come off for the whole pot.

[Talking Poker]

The first half of your first paragraph says pretty much exactly what I said, using slightly different words. I disagree with your assessment that PA agreed to run it three times to keep Gold happy though.

A. Who cares if Gold is happy? This is tv, and you know he's not leaving. He need to act like a fearless donkey and try to be the best bluffer in the world, remember?

B. This is about as good of an opportunity as you are ever (literally) going to get to break Gold (he's not going to be playing for nearly 800k pots on a regular basis - that figure likely represents 1/3 to 1/2 of Gold's roll), so why not just go for it now? If anything, your logic is backwards - he should be ok with running it once and risking the chance of Gold scooping the whole pot if he knows he'll have time to take it back from him later.

PA agreed to run it three times for the simple reason that it reduces variance. Even though the largest pot ever shown on HSP may not be the biggest he's ever played for, it's still a lot of money, and the more times you run it, the closer your share of the pot will be to your expected value - 77% or whatever it was in this case.

Shit, if that were me, I'd run it with every last card in the deck if Gold wanted to. Why not? Sure, I'll plit the pot 77/23 with him right now.

[Kurn]

The more I think about this, the more I agree with you.