Donk Bet Raising Success Rate...

[de-coder]

You know you're really starting to piss me off now. I've basically just been ignoring your blather about this because that's the way I roll generally, but I've been stewing over this (and your other idiot comment). You don't find this useful - fine - shut the fuck up. I've poured hours (too many probably) into this to try and help figure this out (not the sql stuff, but the poker stuff - I've had to figure the sql stuff out, but I'm doing it for the poker...) because some of us are curious to see how this works.

If you have something constructive to say, great. You want to help get us better information, great. You want to keep on trying to invalidate the work we're doing - not great.

[Talking Poker]

+Rep * {Infinity}

[Talking Poker]

I updated the SQL in the first posts with "x.real_player_id" instead of "x.player_id."

So here are my personal results with raising donk bets. I'm using my Troll Pie ID only, so these should only be hands from 1/2 NL - 5/10 NL (all 6 max) games on Full Tilt since last October or so.

I raised 362 donk bets.
Donk has folded 189 times.

So, that's 52% of the time that I've taken down the pot right there.

I know one person will find this useless, but I think this is awesome, since in my head, I was guessing this number (for me, obviously) to be slightly over 50%.

For the stupid among you, please be aware that I do not think I have proved always raising a donk bet to be profitable or anything else like that. But I have proved that for me, when I have choosen to raise a donk bet, it has indeed been +EV... at least as far as the bet itself is concerned and ignoring the rest of the hand (where I am almost certain I have won a lot more money that I have lost).

I'd be interested in seeing more people's numbers, especially the people who speculated what their results were in the other thread.

[Wes]

OK, you proved two people wrong in their assumption of just general donk betting and how often a person folds doing it. Now, can we please expand upon this into some more thorough analysis that will help people more?

Can you filter your actual winnings when you do this play? It might be a little more useful for deciding if just auto raising donk bets is a better way to approaching the hand than say evaulating what the donk bet means and acting accordingly.

And then, when you are done with that, filter on how you are doing when you raise a donk bet from a person with a vpip over/under 30 and the profitably of that play.

[Talking Poker]

You have way more data that I do. By all means, go for it.