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#1
10-24-04, 02:59 AM
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On a side note, here are my top picks for week 7, if anyone cares:
Tease: Philly from -7 down to -1 against the Browns with the Dolphins + 6 to +12 at home against the Rams Reasoning: Most people think this is an automatic win for the Rams, and would think this is a crazy bet...always a good sign. There's a reason bookies buy new cars every year. This is a classic let-down game for the Rams. One of the keys to not falling into the let down game trap in this league is coaching...and Mike Martz doesnt impress me. It seems to me that Martz will only get smart when the press is on him after a loss...and they are riding high this week after two solid wins, so Martz should probably be back in his "I'm a genius, let's make crazy calls" attitude yet again. The key to this game for Miami will be turnovers. The defense is just as good as it always has been, with good shutdown corners, and throughout his short career, Bulger has not proven he is capable of finding his 3rd and 4th recievers...this is where most of his picks come from. Giving the Miami offense consistently good field position could lead to an out-right win in this game. On the flip side, the Rams defense is very weak against the run, and Sammy Morris is a big punishing back who can move the chains, and move the clock. Like i said in an earlier post, I'm riding Philly till the buck me. This was a long post, so i'll bust out another one for other picks |
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#2
10-24-04, 08:29 AM
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Continuing with week 7 thoughts:
If ya just cant stomach betting on the dolphins, I also like teasin Buffalo from +6 up to +12 against the ravens with Philly Reasoning: This Buffalo team has played every game tough. They lost to Jacksonville by 3 on a last second td, oakland by 3, the jets by 2 on a last min fg, and to new england by 14...but even in that game, the bills were at the pats 25, down by 7 with a 2 min left, when the pats forced a fumble and took it to the house to seal the game. All that being said, I just can't see this Ravens team, without Jamal Lewis, beating the Bills by more 11. And if you consider that the over/under on this game is 31.5.....vegas does not expect a high scoring affair, which just reinforces my belief that the ravens wont win by more than 11 In fact, my tease of the week is Buffalo (moving the line from +6 to +12) with Philly ( moving the line from -7 to -1) I'm gonna put 2 units on this tease Last edited by jimmytheg; 10-24-04 at 08:36 AM. |
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#3
10-24-04, 09:22 AM
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Im going to lay off on my hunch about teasin the Dolphins to +12, even though i really like it. All the signs are there, but i have another one in mind besides my main Buffalo and Philly tease.
I'm going to tease the under of the giants lions game up to 46. the giants have only reached this number once, in week one at philly in a 31-17 loss, and the lions have also only reached this once, last week losing 38-10 against GB in a really really pitiful game. Vegas always pads the over/unders upwards a couple points, cause the majority of people who bet on totals tend to bet the over. So far, the giants are averaging 21 points a game, and detroit on 17.5....i think this number is to high Also, the same with dallas and green bay...almost same exact point averages, dallas with 17.4 and Gb with 22.8, notorius rivals with better pass defenses than run defenses....teasin it up to 50 ( the 4 point higher number is very odd here, especially given the good pass defense of both teams) 2 units here also. Extra pick, if ya'll feelin lucky.....dallas/gb under with Philly together, 1 unit |
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#4
10-24-04, 11:09 AM
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Buffalo wil probably be my biggest play of the day. I will steer clear of the Dolphins simply because I have a rule about not asking bad teams to do something good for me till they show they actually can. I broke that rule yesterday with Penn St in a very easy spot against Iowa and got reminded why I have that rule, I think that is the first time I bet on a team that scored 4 friggin points and still almost got the cover.
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#5
10-24-04, 05:03 PM
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Down in flames!
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#7
10-24-04, 06:14 PM
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Everything went wrong in that Buffalo game. Bledsoe throws 4 picks, 1 that is returned for a touchdown, 1 that is returned to the 6. Can't win like that.
Well, everything had to go wrong for them not to cover that spread, but i still like the reasoning. And that hunch about the dolphins sure was right. |
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