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Old 02-26-07, 10:39 PM
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I disagree. We're 3 handed late in a WPT final table. So for all intents and purposes its a late stage SNG. ICM theory takes over. I assume Antonius is pushing regularly (ICM says push with any 2). The theory is you win with fold equity as most players will only call the all-in with approx 13% of their possible hands.

You cannot take away that edge by tightening up your calling range. You can only take it away by loosening up.

Theoretically (I stress this because obviously we do not get an infinite number of repetitions), if you know your opponent is pushing any 2, you call with any 2, which reduces fold equity to zero and over the long run renders the results 50-50.

Now we back off from "theoretically" and address opening up your calling range. If you even suspect your opponent is employing ICM strategy, your calling range *must* include any pair, and at the very least any 2 unpaired cards >8.

Thus when Antonius says "How can you make that call?" he demonstrates ignorance of basic (and I stress the word basic) SNG end game strategy.

Now, put yourself in Antonius' shoes. You've been bullying the table and one of your opponents is a very savvy player (unless of course Patrick has no clue who the old guy in the Stetson is), at some point you have to adapt and understand that your most dangerous opponent is a *gambler* first and a poker player second (or does Antonius really think poker isn't gambling?).

Does he really think Doyle Brunson is going to sit there and get bullied and wait for a premium hand to mix it up. Therefore at some point, Patrick has to tighten up his push range a bit to counterract any adjustment Doyle makes, and the first thing he must do is eliminate low kickers.

I don't remember the exact chip counts, but why would he push and risk his chip lead against a player who everybody knows is not timid about getting involved as an underdog when he(Patrick) has a hand that is, at best, slightly less than a 7:5 favorite over his opponent's calling range?

Sorry, but when he makes his comment, he shows he fundamentally misses both the math of the game *and* the psychology of his opponent.

Now I admit I'm being a bit extreme here, and I'll be willing to eat crow if Antonius handles the HSP old timers, but cash games and late-stage tourneys are completely different animals.
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Old 02-27-07, 01:32 AM
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You are responding to this based on a LOT more information than I had when I made my comments about the play. I didn't even know we were three handed (which greatly supports my side of this). But, the fact remains, we will have to agree to disagree.

I understand what you are saying perfectly. I just disagree with you.
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Old 02-27-07, 08:28 PM
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Fair enough. Differences of opinion are what make horse races. And poker games.
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