My worst night ever...

[MAYHEM45]

KJh is a favourite on the flop. Sorry.

[melioris]

ouch TP, I am sorry.

[Talking Poker]

It's right about 50/50 (he had 14 outs) and I was getting 2:1. No brainer correct call (if I'm sure that's what he's got - and not a set or something).

[2Tone]

Tough night. Take a break if need be. Shake it off.
I'm confident you'll win it back sooner rather than later.

[JDMcNugent7]

i lost a lot tonight too, also playing bad. fun

[Zybomb]

Yea, 15 outs makes him a 54% favorite, but you hold one of his hearts in your hand, bringing it to 14 outs and a virtual coinflip

[MAYHEM45]

Im not saying its a fold.

[PShabi]

No. That's exactly what you're saying.

MULE.

[Boobie Lover]

I am.

[Zybomb]

not if opponent turned his hand face up u arent

[Talking Poker]

Why?

I would have bet you even money that he had a big draw, at best. I was SURE my hand was still good.

If you made me pick an exact hand to put him on, I would have said Ahxh, and I was hoping the x was 6 or lower. Even if it was AhTh, that's basically the same as his KhJh. I'm a little farther behind JhTh (worst case scenario), but even then I'm not a 2.5:1 dog.

No way does he play a set, and overpair, or something like A9 like this. Seriously, what can you put him on besides a big draw? 98s is the only hand I can think of, and the chances of that are SO slim....

[Boobie Lover]

I'm not exactly sure why a set wouldn't play the hand the way he did, or something like 9T. Maybe if you had some read on villain that he always reraises with 88+ it would seem better to me. Anyway, you're getting a little over 2:1 on your money, so you have to have like 30% equity over his range of hands here.


Board: 9d 8h 4h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 71.265% 71.10% 00.16% 114036 259.50 { 99-88, 44, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, KhQh, KhJh, KhTh, QhJh, QhTh, JTs, Jh9h, Th9h, 98s, 76s }
Hand 1: 28.735% 28.57% 00.16% 45825 259.50 { 77 }

The above basically says you have 28.7% equity over that range of hands, which I think it a little ambiguous. This range includes him shoving all JT and 67 suited hands. If you break it down to only JT and 67 or hearts, your equity goes down to about 22%. I don't know, maybe you should call there if you squeeze and 3bet a fuckton, but I certainly wouldn't do it with my game or knowing the villain is quite bad.

[Talking Poker]

If I told you villain likes to shove with draws and not with flopped sets (I was like 99% sure he didn't have a set here and 95% sure he didn't have an overpair), how would that change things? In other words, pull out the 99, 88, 44 and even throw in Ah6h through Ah2h and tell me what you get. I don't think he'd shove with 76 either, unless it was 7h6h.

Oh - and yeah, I was squeezing and 3betting a lot, but I don't know that villain was smart neough to adapt his game because of this. I'm pretty sure he'd shove here with this hand against anyone, even someone with 300 less in his stack who was committed.

[Talking Poker]

The funny thing is, I would have played a number of other hands exactly the same. Take a look at ANY pair better than my 77, for example:

88,99 - I flop a set and he looks like a donkey, but he was slightly more of a dog.

TT - I would have been in the exact same spot and still lost, but it would have LOOKED like a much better call, as opposed to my 3rd pair call.

JJ or better - it plays out the same, but I win.

That's kind of annoying.