Lines Moving

[Zybomb]

In this thread, RD commented about a bet for UCLA at -3.5 (I had it at -3) looking good over Florida State in tonights bowl game. I made a comment that the line had started at 5.5 and had moved down 2.5 points since then, which made me suspicious. I told him that because of this line moving, I was taking FSU for .5 Unit (so little because its Florida State, they suck, and I faded them at least 4 times during the regular season and won)

Lines move, for the most part because too much action is on one team, and the oddmakers want more action on the other team.

The best thing to happen for the offices (/vegas/bookmakers/whatever) is for 50% of the action to be on Side A and 50% on side B. This is because no matter who wins, they automatically win a Vig and risk nothing. If there is heavy action on one side, it becomes a gamble for them, rather than a sure thing.

Apparently when this line opened at 5.5, there was a ton of action on Florida State. A few days later it went down to 5, then 4.5 , then 4, then 3.5, then to 3 finally. This means the oddsmakers are trying to get people to bet on UCLA. When the odds makers are working hard to get you to bet on one side, it USUALLY means that that side is going to lose. They wanted people to bet UCLA and they lost. I would say when a line makes significant movements (2 points or more) in the days heading into the game, 4 out of 5 times the team it is moving in favor of will lose the game (ATS)

Sometimes oddsmakers may get tricky, as they did last NFL season in the Bears vs Steelers game midway through the season.

The Bears were on the road, and a +4.5 underdog to the home Steelers (who had been nothing special at all yet, I believe were at .500 or a game under). With a Bears D that had been allowing Ten points a game, this seems like an easily achievable goal. In fact everyone was jumping on this Bear bet getting points.... Then something strange happened. The line moved up 2 full points to +6.5 for the Bears... thus the oddsmakers were trying to get you to bet on the Bears... but that didn't make sense. All the action was going on the Bears already, the line should have been moving in the other direction to even out everything...

Penguin pointed out something very true but maybe not that obvious to observers. 6.5 and 4.5 aren't a whole lot different... in fact they are basically the same line in football. The oddsmakers WANTED everyone to bet Chicago, but not to even out the bets.... they "knew" Pittsburgh was going to win and cover. This seemed like a steal on the Bears, but sure enough Pittsburgh won by 11 points and covered.

If there is ever a line which seems like it is begging the typical fan to jump on one side, it probably is... take the other side. A lot of action may be on one side, and the line may not move... thats because the oddsmakers are perfectly happy with a lot of action on that side, because they expect it to lose (the bet against Joe Public theory). ITs when you know there is a lot of action on one side and the line does not move, that you have to begin to think Joe Public is very wrong here, and fade it. When the line begins significantly moving, its usually bc Joe Public was right and the oddmakers are trying to compensate that by moving the line, hoping others will come along on the opposite side.

I wouldn't say that when a line significantly moves that I will always take the team it does not favor... but it will generally prevent me from taking the team it is favoring, and will sometimes sway me to place a wager on the team it does not if I was impartial about the game to begin with.

At the very least I get suspicious and look into it a bit further.

[Reel Deal]

Very interesting Z, thanks.

Would like to hear if Penguin has anything to add??

[Talking Poker]

I don't think he posts here any more.

We've been through this pattern with him before (it's similar to SWA's but without all the big "I'm leaving" announcements. He posts a "Bad Beat," people point out that he actually played the hand poorly, and he gets all worked up and disappears for a few months. This time, if I recall, he even said something about going ahead and banning him right then if it wasn't a bad beat or some crap like that that makes absolutely no sense. In other words, he's not willing to try to improve his play, and would rather take his toys and go home than think about constructive advice on how to improve his game. IMO.

Let's see if I can find the thread. Yeah, here it is (he chims in a few posts down):


At 6:28 PM, he said:


And then, there is this:
Last Online: 12-17-06 06:29 PM

Draw your own conclusions.

[Kurn]

When I read about lines moving, I always think of Super Bowl XIII. It opened at Pittsburgh -3 1/2 over Dallas. Everybody who liked the Steelers jumped on it. It went up midweek to -4 1/2 and all the 'Boys fans bet.

Steelers won 35-31. It was called the year everybody won and the bookies took a beating.

Except for my guy in Boston. I got it at -4 abd took the Cowboys with the points. Damn that Jackie Smith!!