More KoD fun!

[meanness]

PokerStars Game #5252287377: Tournament #26446955, $5.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level IV (50/100) - 2006/06/14 - 15:27:31 (ET)
Table '26446955 5' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: LuckyMonkey2 (5990 in chips)
Seat 2: Squoidster (4075 in chips)
Seat 3: ruimdg (1790 in chips)
Seat 4: tjmacdaddy (1480 in chips)
Seat 5: HellinicStar (1130 in chips)
Seat 6: Mean_bcp (7290 in chips)
Seat 7: Boombasi (1565 in chips)
Seat 8: chargerwin (860 in chips)
Seat 9: Danny Briere (2960 in chips)
Boombasi: posts small blind 50
chargerwin: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Mean_bcp [Kh Ks]
Danny Briere: folds
LuckyMonkey2: folds
Squoidster: folds
ruimdg: folds
tjmacdaddy: folds
HellinicStar: raises 1030 to 1130 and is all-in
Mean_bcp: raises 6160 to 7290 and is all-in
Boombasi: folds
chargerwin: folds
*** FLOP *** [2d Qd Ac]
*** TURN *** [2d Qd Ac] [2c]
*** RIVER *** [2d Qd Ac 2c] [4d]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
HellinicStar: shows [2s Kc] (three of a kind, Deuces)
Mean_bcp: shows [Kh Ks] (two pair, Kings and Deuces)
Mean_bcp said, "lolol"
HellinicStar collected 2410 from pot
LuckyMonkey2 said, "holy ****"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 2410 | Rake 0
Board [2d Qd Ac 2c 4d]
Seat 1: LuckyMonkey2 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: Squoidster folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: ruimdg folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: tjmacdaddy folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: HellinicStar showed [2s Kc] and won (2410) with three of a kind, Deuces
Seat 6: Mean_bcp (button) showed [Kh Ks] and lost with two pair, Kings and Deuces
Seat 7: Boombasi (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 8: chargerwin (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 9: Danny Briere folded before Flop (didn't bet)

[X-Longshot-X]

Brutal....

[Reel Deal]

At least you had the chip stack to weather it. But that is sick.

[Talking Poker]

That sir, is fantastic.

[meanness]

What are the odds of this, anyone know?

[eejit101]

8.8% on the turn

[Talking Poker]

I'm gonna start posting this link over and over, until people get used to it

[Talking Poker]

Um.....

The money went in preflop. Mean was a 94.2% favorite (and ther was a 1.5% chance of a split). The tool only had a 4.3% chance of winning.

[eejit101]

please help me....

im coutning the "tool" has 2 outs, the 2 remaining deuces, after the flop.

after the flop the odds of 1 card hitting are 4.4%. so i doubled that to come up with 8.8%.

What did i do wrong???


EDIT - i only just saw the odds preflop. for some reason i was working them out after the flop. oops