The worst beat I have ever seen (during 2004 WSOP)...

Talking Poker · #1 10-18-04, 11:37 PM

This hand wasn't filmed, but here's what happened...

I don't know the exact sequence of betting, but it doesn't really matter. What matters is the flop was 557 and the guy with Pocket 9s pushed all in. The guy with Pocket 5s immediately called with his quads.

Turn - 9.
River - 9.

The guy caught two perfect running cards. What are the odds of that happening? with 45 unknown cards left and exactly 2 that could allow the Pocket 9s guy to win....

43/2 * 43/1 = 925:1.

Ouch.

Jackass_man · #2 10-19-04, 12:08 AM

I hate runner runners

johnbaker · #3 10-19-04, 12:29 AM

in super system it says the odds are something like 1024:1 to run perfect

Talking Poker · #4 10-19-04, 12:39 AM

I wonder where that comes from, because I'm pretty sure my numbers are correct. Even if you didn't know the other guy's cards, I still can only get it up to 1013:1.

47 unknown cards, 45 losers, 2 winners and then 45 losers, 1 winner.

45/2 * 45/1 = 1013:1.

Right?

Charlie Frank · #5 10-19-04, 01:56 PM

1013:1 is correct.

This is technically the worst possible bad beat in holdem.

But I have received a psychologically worse one. Same odds for the suckout, but the play was so bad, it was scary. I had just started playing online, and after this hand, I didn't play again for almost a year - as I was sure it was rigged.

HE PL $50 buyin. Blinds 0.50/1. I had built up to $140 or so when I get AA on the button. I raised the pot to $7 after early position ($130) called. Both blinds fold. Early position calls.

Flop is AK2 rainbow. Early position checks. I bet the pot $16.50. Early position thinks for awhile and then calls.

Turn is 2. I have the nut full. Only hand that can beat me is 22. Early position checks. I hope and pray he has a 2. I bet the pot $49.50. He calls immediately.

River is 2. He bets all-in with his remaining $57 or so. I think for 20 sec then call. He has 82o.

I lose a $250 pot to 82o.

The only comforting thing at the time was that I will never experience a mathematically worse bad beat in pot limit HE.

CF

johnbaker · #6 10-25-04, 05:25 PM

yea it was probably 1:1013, i just havent read it in a while

ChipFish · #7 10-25-04, 05:37 PM

If this is the same guy I think it is, it was Peter Moore from Toronto....
I play Golden Tee with him, I think Geoff M might know him too.

If not him, Same thing happened to Moore At the WSOP/2004

eddo31 · #8 10-25-04, 06:02 PM

i forget where i read this story online (it was at some seemingly legitimate site, not just a post on rgp), but i have never read anythign worse than this beat.

essentially it is a 5k buy in no limit ring game. three people in a significantly raised pot preflop. hero has AA. flop is rags, hero pushes hard, on person folds TT, the other calls with TT. technically, at this point the caller with TT is drawing dead. turn is a rag. hero pushes in, TT calls again. the dealer then begins mixing the board cards in with the muck, before dealing the river. floor is called over, and the floor rules that the river must be dealt. the river turns out to be one of the tens that was mucked postflop.

this could be an urban legend, but if this really happened, what an awful beat it was.

TajaUk · #9 10-25-04, 06:13 PM

Lost a tourny on ladbrokes with a very similar bad beat. Heads up 50k vs 48k, both all in 55 vs 88 after flop was 575.

The only way to beat me was to get 8 8 on the last two flops, he got it. Always did wonder about the odds, 900/1 sounds about right. Took me awhile to stop thinking about that beat. Didn't even get the bad beat bonus as it was not on a cash table

2Tone · #10 10-25-04, 07:02 PM

As unlikey as this is, it still wouldn't win you the BB jackpot at Party

jdiana86 · #11 11-11-04, 07:04 PM

LOL, I hope I never have to expierence beats like these ever!

SirFWALGMan · #12 11-12-04, 09:15 AM

I am assuming that the guy with 99 thought his opponent missed the flop with some overcards or something, and did not want to give him a free card. Just because he was wrong and got REALLY lucky, does not mean it was a bad bet although it was a HORRIBLE beat! heh.

eddo31 · #13 11-12-04, 11:38 AM

yeah, that looks about as good as it gets for you when you hold 99. i think it would be pretty difficult to put the other person on quads right there.

Talking Poker · #14 11-12-04, 02:08 PM

Well, of course you wouldn't put him on QUADS, but how about a set? Or a higher pair?

To suggest in any way that this was not a bad beat... you guys are crazy. This is *literally* as bad as it comes! Perfect perfect required to win.

bothecorgi · #15 11-12-04, 02:58 PM

I would agree that this is a very bad beat. The player holding the 9s had only 2 cards that would win the pot and he had to get each card. After the flop, the person with the 5s was 99.9% to win. After the turn, he was still 97.7% to win. Now that is a bad beat!

Penguinfan · #16 11-12-04, 05:33 PM

I would still be at the bar.