SJay's Sportsbetting Thread

[sjay2k]

Will post my picks and history in this thread.

Will only post results where I have stood to gain or lose >$200.

Please post your tips in here, as well as basic reasoning for them. Usually I think there is value in lines when:
1. the market has over-reacted to an abnormal performance
2. a side is dramatically overbacked because they are popular.

I have my results from the past 3 months and everything before April 2008. Currently waiting on Betfair to email my statement from the intervening period (ridic hot streak in there) and i will update my results. Also please note that the results are net of commission (subtract 5% from wins for real results).

History:

2007:
Mar 27 -- Cricket -- Australia v West Indies, bet $2420 at 1.27, +$653
Mar 28 -- Cricket -- South Africa v Sri Lanka (in-play), bet $1200 at 1.47, +$564
Apr 1 -- Cricket -- Sri Lanka v West Indies, bet $400 at 1.59, +$236
Apr 2 -- Cricket -- NZ -79.5 runs v Bangladesh, bet $275 at 2.4, +$385
Apr 4 -- Cricket -- Sri Lanka v England, bet $210 at 1.47, +$99
Apr 8 -- Cricket -- Australia v England, bet $730 at 1.29, +$211
Apr 10 -- Cricket -- South Africa v West Indies, bet $300 at 1.54, +$162
Apr 10 -- Cricket -- South Africa v West Indies (in-game), bet $2000 at 1.12, +$240
Apr 12 -- Cricket -- Sri Lanka v NZ, bet $200 at 2.2, +$240
Apr 12 -- Cricket -- Sri Lanka v NZ (in-game), bet $1600 at 1.5, +$800
Apr 14 -- Cricket -- South Africa v NZ, bet $300 at 1.8, -$300
Apr 14 -- Cricket -- NZ v South Africa (in-game), bet $1500 at 1.43, +$645
Apr 16 -- Cricket -- Sri Lanka v Australia, bet $500 at 4, -$500
Apr 17 -- Cricket -- South Africa v NZ, bet $900 at 1.52, +$468
June -- NBA -- various bets on Dallas Mavericks playoff games, -$4200
Aug 18 -- AFL -- Brisbane v Sydney, bet $200 at 2.02, +$204
Aug 25 -- AFL -- Brisbane v Adelaide, bet $300 at 2.9, -$300
Aug 26 -- Soccer -- Newcastle v Middlesbrough, $450 at 2.76, -$450
Sep 2 -- AFL -- Jonathan Brown to kick most goals, bet $400 at 1.98, +$392
Sep 9 -- Rugby -- South Africa -50.5 v Samoa, $125 at 4.8, +$475
Sep 11 -- Rugby -- NZ to win World Cup, lay $1100 at 1.65, +$1100
Sep 12 -- Rugby -- Fiji -9.5 v Japan, $450 at 1.34, -$450
Sep 12 -- Rugby -- Italy -19.5 v Romania, $360 at 1.5, -$360
Sep 14 -- Rugby -- Australia v England, bet $525 at 1.54, +$283
Sep 15 -- Rugby -- Australia -5.5 v Wales, bet $620 at 1.45, +$279
Sep 16 -- Cricket -- South Africa v England, bet $600 at 1.52, +$312
Sep 19 -- Cricket -- India v England, bet $1350 at 1.99, +$1336
Sep 22 -- Cricket -- Australia v India, bet $950 at 1.5, -$950
Sep 24 -- Cricket -- India v Pakistan, bet $1300 at 1.85, +$1105
Sep 24 -- AFL -- Brent Harvey to win Brownlow, bet $1400 at 4.5, -$1400
Sep 26 -- Rugby -- Georgia -12.5 v Namibia, bet $750 at 1.9, +$675
Sep 28 -- Rugby -- Tonga +20.5 v England, bet $1400 at 1.77, +$1078
Sep 29 -- Rugby -- Australia -43.5 v Canada, bet $500 at 2.2, -$500
Sep 29 -- Rugby -- Scotland v Italy, bet $1200 at 1.41, +$492
Sep 30 -- Rugby -- Argentina v Ireland, bet $500 at 1.77, +$385
Sep 30 -- Rugby -- USA +58.5 v South Africa, bet $250 at 1.7, +$175
Sep 30 -- NRL -- Melbourne to win final, bet $300 at 1.41, +$123
Oct 7 -- Rugby -- Argentina -13.5 v Scotland, bet $1350 at 2.14, -$1350
Oct 8 -- Cricket -- Australia v India, bet $1455 at 1.54, -$1455
Oct 20 -- Rugby -- South Africa v England, bet $2800 at 1.47, +$1316
Dec 1 -- Soccer -- Chelsea v West Ham, bet $500 at 1.4, +$200
Dec 9 -- Boxing -- Mayweather v Hatton, $250 at 1.54, +$135

2008:
Mar 31 -- Tennis -- Federer v Soderling, bet $390 at 1.2, +$78
May 17 -- AFL -- Kangaroos v West Coast, bet $200 at 1.28, +$56
May 17 -- AFL -- Brisbane -7.5 v Carlton, bet $400 at 1.86, +$344
May 18 -- AFL -- Essendon +37.5 v Sydney, bet $200 at 1.9, -$200
May 25 -- Cricket -- Deccan v Bangalore, laid $800 at 1.73, +$800
May 25 -- NBA -- Spurs v Lakers, bet $400 at 1.42, +$168
May 29 -- Tennis -- Hewitt v Fish, bet $470 at 1.38, +$178
May 30 -- NBA -- Spurs +8.5 v Lakers, bet $400 at 1.81, +$324
June 2 -- Tennis -- Ferrer v Stepanek, bet $800 at 1.62, +$496
June 5 -- NBA -- Celtics v Lakers, bet $300 at 1.78, +$234
June 8 -- NBA -- Celtics v Lakers, bet $200 at 2, +$200
June 10 -- NBA -- Celtics +9.5 v LA, bet $200 at 1.96, +$192
June 11 -- Soccer -- Portugal v Czech Republic, bet $650 at 1.84, +$546
June 12 -- NBA -- Celtics v Lakers, over 192.5 pts, bet $250 at 2.12, -$250
June 12 -- NBA -- Celtics +8.5 v Lakers, bet $200 at 1.8, +$160
June 14 -- Soccer -- Russia v Greece, bet $400 at 2.4, +$560
June 15 -- NBA -- Celtics v Lakers, over 191.5 points, bet $750 at 1.89, +$670
June 17 -- NBA -- Celtics v Lakers, bet $200 at 1.51, +$102
June 17 -- NBA -- Celtics v Lakers, over 191.5 points, bet $300 at 2.16, +$348
June 17 -- Soccer -- Netherlands v Romania, bet $200 at 2.94, +$388
June 19 -- Soccer -- Portugal v Germany, <3.5 goals, lay $500 at 1.24, +$500
June 19 -- Soccer -- Portugal v Germany, >2.5 goals, bet $500 at 2.68, +$840
July 1 -- NRL -- Qld -4.5 v NSW, bet $400 at 2.12, +$448
July 2 -- Tennis -- Ancic +7.5 games v Federer, bet $600 at 1.71, -$600
July 3 -- Tennis -- Federer to win Wimbledon, bet $600 at 1.89, -$600
Jul 27 -- AFL -- Melbourne +26.5 v Kangaroos, bet $200 at 1.99, +$198
July 29 -- Olympics -- USA most medals, bet $620 at 2.3, +$806
July 30 -- Olympics mens basketball -- USA to win gold, bet $500 at 1.39, +$195
Aug 1 -- AFL -- Collingwood +15.5 v Hawthorn, laid $220 at 1.91, +$220
Aug 2 -- AFL -- Adelaide v Carlton, bet $200 at 1.72, +$144
Aug 2 -- AFL -- Brisbane v Kangaroos, bet $300 at 1.8, -$300
Aug 3 -- AFL -- Bulldogs -15.5 pts v Sydney, bet $520 at 2.01, +$505
Aug 20 -- Olympics mens basketball -- Australia v USA, under 180.5 pts, bet $400 at 1.86, -$400
Aug 20 -- Olympics mens basketball -- Argentina v Greece, bet $300 at 1.65, +$195
Aug 22 -- Olympics womens basketball -- Australia -28.5 v China, bet $300 at 3.6, +$780
Aug 23 -- Olympics womens basketball -- Australia +7.5 v USA, bet $500 at 2.34, -$500
Aug 29 -- AFL -- Fremantle +15.5 pts v Collingwood, bet $200 at 1.93, +$186
Aug 30 -- Tennis -- Jankovic v Zheng, bet $1200 at 1.46, +$552
Aug 30 -- Tennis -- Tsonga v Moya, $680 at 1.79, +$537
Aug 31 -- Tennis -- Roddick First Sret v Seppi, bet $600 at 1.34, +$204
Aug 31 -- Tennis -- Jankovic v Wozniacki, bet $450 at 2, +$450
Aug 31 -- Tennis -- Federer 3-0 v Stepanek, $200 at 1.91, +$182
Sep 1 -- Tennis -- Safina 12-0 v Groenefeld, bet $250 at 1.9, +$225
Sep 1 -- Tennis -- Monfils v Fish, bet $600 at 1.69, -$600
Sep 6 -- Tennis -- Federer v Djokovic, bet $400 at 1.82, +$328
Sep 7 -- AFL -- Geelong v St Kilda, Total match points <190.5, bet $200 at 2.94, +$388

[Talking Poker]

This is great. Impressive results.

If you aren't able to edit your post by the time betfair sends you the missing info, PM it to me and I'll insert it for you.

I may mirror your bets for a while if I can get similar lines on .

[MAYHEM45]

Total Profits?

[sjay2k]

Total profits from above: $12,831

Not sure about all results including smaller bets, but I'll try to keep a running tally going.

[sjay2k]

Tip: AFL (Sep 12) -- Western Bulldogs v Sydney, bet $300 at 1.84

This is the second round of finals in the AFL, which is an elimination round. The Bulldogs finished 3rd with a record of 15-6 (1 draw) and lost last week in a preliminary final by 51 points against second-seeded Hawthorn. Sydney were 12-9 (1 draw) this year, and eliminated the Kangaroos (7th seed) last week.

The Bulldogs have beaten Sydney in both games this year, by margins of 18 and 16 points (the latter result being slightly over a month ago). I think the Bulldogs are a better football team, as this year's results have indicated. I think the market is overreacting from last week's results. However, Hawthorn are incredibly good and the Kangaroos are mediocre at best.

The game is being played at the MCG, which is not the Bulldogs' home ground, but being a Melbourne-based team they will still enjoy a significant home ground advantage.

[sjay2k]

Tip: Soccer (Sep 10) -- Australia v Uzbekistan, bet $200 at 2.22


My soccer expert friend estimates Australia will be able to pull off a win about 60% of the time, making the line of 2.22 far too generous to pass up. I generally don't bet big unless I understand the sport itself, and since I haven't watched either team recently, I'll keep it small for this match.

[JDMcNugent7]

This is awesome plz keep this up, I want to get alot more into sports betting.

Are there any forums you frequent often to get these tips? I've been looking at a few lately but I'm not on my reg comp now but I'll link them here later. There are people who write up every bet they make before they do it and are up a ridiculous amount of $ that I plan to just mirror, like I will many of your bets.

[sjay2k]

Result: +$244

Overall: +$13,075

[sjay2k]

Result: +$252

Overall: +$13,327

[sjay2k]

Tip: AFL (Sep 22) -- Simon Black v Joel Selwood, Brownlow medal votes H2H, bet $1000 at 1.8


In each game of the season (22 rounds), the umpires assign 3, 2 and 1 votes to three players. These votes are counted and the winner is awarded the Brownlow Medal.

Simon Black is a star midfielder for the Brisbane Lions. He won the Medal in 2002 with 25 votes, and surprised everyone last year (including betting markets) with 22 votes. Joel Selwood received 2 votes in his rookie season last year. Moreover he plays for the Geelong Cats, which are a superstar team. The 1st, 2nd and 5th favourite players to win the medal overall all play for Geelong and will limit Selwood's (currently 9th favourite overall) votes.

I have found 8 predictions for this year's medal. Seven predict Black will receive more votes (by margins of between 2 and 12 votes), while one predicts the two will draw.

Simon Black is shortening in all Brownlow-related markets. This is particularly important considering the information-sensitive nature of this market (e.g. people might know the result). A few days ago, Black traded at 42, but traded at 32 today, with a ton of money trying to back him. Selwood has experienced the opposite trend, as there is a substantial amount being offered at odds of 46. In this H2H market, Black opened with all sportsbooks at 1.85, and is down to 1.6 with some (1.5 on Betfair!). TAB still has him at $1.80, which I believe is outstanding value.

[sjay2k]

Links please.

Also I don't get my tips from forums, but I often will investigate on certain forums (bigfooty.com.au for AFL or sbrforum.com for NBA or the forums at betfair.com for tennis) to confirm my thoughts and to search for other relevant information.

[JDMcNugent7]

theres a few guys there that have ridiculous records on betting and post before every game they bet if they are going to count it toward theyre running record on the site. I try to just mirror them but sometimes they don't post for awihle since they're selective about what they bet.

[sjay2k]

Result: +$800

Overall: +$14,127



Apologies to JD, who wanted in on this bet, but Black's odds faded pretty hard after I got my money on, so I couldn't get anything reasonable matched. I wished I'd bet more on this one myself.

[sjay2k]

Tip: AFL (Sep 27) -- Geelong v Hawthorn, bet $200 at 1.45


This is the Grand Final match. Geelong have won 23/24 games this year, including winning its game against Hawthorn. Geelong are simply an incredible side. Hawthorn's odds are artificially short after an impressive win last week. But Geelong (reigning premiers) are the absolute stones, and they consistently fend off the best teams in the league. I might bet some more on this match.

[jillaj]

Are you able to get any of these lines on intertops?

[Talking Poker]

Honestly, I haven't checked yet. Let me check the latest one now.

Doesn't look like they even cover the AFL. Hopefully sjay will start handicapping real sports soon.

[jillaj]

I guess I will start looking for a site that covers these damn games that allows US Americans.

[MAYHEM45]

The AFL is the coolest fucking sport ever invented, it's a shame I didnt get to catch a game live.

[melioris]

qft. Hating the AFL is like chopping your pecker off.

[sjay2k]

Fwiw, you can get 1.469 on Geelong at Pinnacle Sports. Although I think I like the spread bet on Pinnacle (Geelong -15.5) at 1.98 better.

[jillaj]

Thanks I will try to get some money on pinnacle now.

[Windbreaker]

I've seen this on another thread where a group of 20 guys contributed to one account - got the bonus, and let a few select 'experts' are given to make 2 bets for x units a day...and they plan to do this for the entire hockey season...maybe it's possible to get this going here....but might be a bit of work to coordinate.

[melioris]

I am in, although I suck at sports-betting as I can not help myself and bet with my heart every time.

[MAYHEM45]

Go wings imo.

[Talking Poker]

Same.

And if someone wants to start this, please start a new thread. We don't want to hijack's sjay's...