Monday Night Football against the number

[Penguinfan]

Again the books are over reacting to what has happened this season and hung a rediculous number on this game. 14 points is just WAYYYYYY too many.

Win or lose this bet consider 14 points +EV for sure.

Get it early today before the number goes to 13.5 or lower.


St. Louis +14

[Talking Poker]

Well Mr. Sports Betting - you were 3-0 with your locks yesterday. Let's see how long you can ride this streak.

I realize 14 points is a LOT, but I don't love this game quite as much as you do. If you MADE me bet on it, I'd take the points, but I'm planning on avoiding it all together.

(where I bet) has the line at 13.5, btw.

Actually, the more I think about it........................ I know Indy is going to want to prove something with their offense tonight, and I know their defense has been awesome, but this probably isn't going to be a 2 TD game.

I never thought about looking at sports betting like poker - long term. Taking the Rams here probably is +EV, huh?

[Penguinfan]

Well, if you really want the long drawn out boring logic behind it, here's a look into the world of sports handicapping. Much like you know more about cards, odds, theory, etc... of poker there is more to know than most people imagine about betting on sports.


Indy is not putting up points like theie teams in the past couple of seasons, it's actaully their defense that has kept them in games. Their defense is doing it with an incredible pass rush. There is not a team in the league that develops plays as quick as St. Louis, that quick slant over the middle will neutralize the pass rush. If you think St. Louis won't throw the ball 50 times if they have to your not paying attention.


The line, like you pointed out, is already dropping. I don't think this is a false move, I think the smart money is pouring in on the Rams for this game and the books are reacting to that. It probably won't move again as the next significant move would be to 10 as this game will not have many FG's and it's not moving to 10.

For you trend players:

St. Louis is 3-1 ATS vs Indy in the last 4

Indy is 1-3 ATS at home in their last four tries.


St. Louis is actually out-passing the high flying Indy offense by almost 80 yards a game.

People love the favorite and the over on Monday night, the book factor this in when setting the line, believe me.

Indy probably wins and it may take a backdoor cover to win this bet, but the Rams are the right play even at 13.5

[Talking Poker]

I think you've talked me into placing a wager...

BTW - I like these sports betting insights of yours. I still can't believe that I never figured out that "Lock of the Week" scam you described on my own (starting with 1000 mailers, and sending out 500 picking one team and 500 picking the other team, then 250/250 to the winners the next week and so on)...

[Penguinfan]

Yea, there's another board I posted Indy on, so be careful.

[PShabi]

I like Indy at -13.5.

[Quint]

Especially if they let the grass grow a foot tall like Notre Dame did.

[Penguinfan]

So I can go ahead and spend the money then?

[Talking Poker]

Maybe you guys should bet each other then.... I'll hold the money if you want (TalkingPoker on Stars). That way, you get to avoid the juice!

[omahilo]

Dome

[JDMcNugent7]

Everything would make so much more sense if i understood what Rams -14 means. I THINK - it means that if you take that bet and the rams lose by 14 or less u have won ? Is that right ?

AND - I'm in STL - and just so u know the Rams and Cardinals are gonna win tonight!!! YA YA - big night for STL

[Windbreaker]

Rams by -14 means that if the Rams win/ tie (I know - highly unlikely) / lose by 13 or less then you win the bet.

An Indy when by 15 points or more means you they covered the bet. And any bets on the Indy +14 is a win.

If Indy wins by exactly 14 points...then it's a push on both sides and everyone gets their money back.

Have you guys checked out the early lines for Week 7. Some of these lines seem way off to me.

I jumped on one early incase the line moves like this weeks Carolina/Detroit line.

But I see the KC +2 at Miami, Denver +2 at NYG, and Detroit +2.5 at Cleveland. I know they're all visitors, but the performances by Miami, NYG, and Cleveland leave very little to desire.

[JDMcNugent7]

ALright thx for the clarification - so - if u find these lines early and bet them where they are at- and then that site changes its lines - which lines do u have- the original ones u bet or the ones it has been changed to ?

[jakebarf]

Whatever the line is at the time you place your wager is the line you are playing

[Talking Poker]

And just to clairfy, since it looks like there was some confusion with the line above (with the + and - and who is the favorite tonight):

The line for tonight is Indy -14 which in the same as saying St. Louis +14.

If Indy wins by exactly 14, it's a push.
If Indy wins by 15, people who bet on Indy win and people who bet on St. Louis lose.
If Indy wins by 13 or less (or loses), then people who bet on St. Louis win and people who bet on Indy lose.

[Reel Deal]

You like 'em at -30.5??

Nearing the end of the 1st quarter:
Rams 17
Colts 0

As a Jaguars fan I'm loving this!!

BTW, Penguinfan is now required to post his "locks" each week!!

[omahilo]

Im cashing in on his locks lol...

[Talking Poker]

This game is far from over.... but I REALLY like the Rams +13.5 now!

[omahilo]

Im loving it... lol

I loved it today when I was looking at the lines but loving it way more now that the rams are winning 17-0.

[omahilo]

17-7... still feeling good. I hope Bulger can come back before its over.

[omahilo]

17-14.... fading.... fading.... lol

[omahilo]

urgh why did Bulger get hurt... this wouldnt be happening!!!

[Talking Poker]

31-20 (and counting) - SICK comeback.

Don't blame Bulger. Martin had something like 10 straight completions at once point.

[Reel Deal]

Can we blame Jamie "Deer in the Headlights" Martin now? He's no Bulger and the Rams haven't done anything but turn the ball over since he came in (he was in Jax for a while and is horrible).

Back to back picks now... nice game Jamie.

[Talking Poker]

38-20 now.

Wow. This is one of the biggest comebacks I've ever seen.

And now ANOTHER interception!!!

pshabi is starting to look like a genius.