SNG Strategy IV - The Bad News

[Kurn]

Up until now, I've focused on the ways you can play SNGs profitably and the positive factors behind that, mainly that if you can master the weird confluence of nitty-tight early and pushbot ICM late, you can make a good amount of money on a smaller bankroll than other forms of the game.

Now for the downside issue, again, gleaned not just from my own discussion, but from trying distill all the insight I've gotten from reading extensively from the SNG wonks that post you know where.

Downside 1: I may be wrong about bankroll. Whereas I have always thought that 25-30 buy-ins represents a sufficient bankroll despite how streaky SNGs are, Moshman disagrees. He says 50 is a requirement. Now, that may still fit the definition of a smaller BR simply because the nature of optimal SNG strategy allows you to play 1.5x - 2x the number of tables you play at other games. I'm also not sure I agree with him, but that may be another discussion for another day.

Downside 2: "Soul-crushing swings." I quote here from one of the more prolific posters over at 2p2 who used to 12-table the 200s and now plays cash games. I understand variance and the need to both analyze your play during downswings *and* resist jumping off tall buildings when the cards seem to have it in for you an inordinate amount of times. I resist those things pretty well, but in the midst of my 2nd 100 games, I have suffered through a 7/42 ITM streak which I am told is nowhere near the tail of the bell curve. So if you choose to focus on SNGs, be prepared.

Downside 3: aka "The ZeeJustin trap." As in any other form of poker, as you move up, the percentage of good players increases. In SNGs that means players who understand ICM and who are not afraid to apply that understanding. ICM is all about identifying push-call ranges. The nits and maniacs that never adapt are easy to deal with. Its the very good players who adapt. A strong regular who ends up on your left in the late game may well have already noted that he thinks you're shoving any 2 bvb. He not only knows that you defend this by calling with any 2, he's not afraid to do it. Thus you need to adapt. However, at the highest levels, there are so many strong players that some SNG wonks think it becomes impossible to be profitable without rakeback.

Either that or you can do two one of two things to combat the fact that you have become transparent to your competition, one that is OK and one that, well, see what I called this section.

One defense is to spread your bankroll over multiple sites. The other (not advising this) is to create multiple accounts, which is in violation of the Ts&Cs of most if not all sites. This is the exact reasoning that started ZJ down that slippery slope. he was known and thus had no edge.

OK, that's the bad news. I'll try to have some good news in my next post about the grind.

[de-coder]

There's always a downside to anything. Before taking on a new venture I think it's more important to understand the downside than the upside. By managing the downside risks you have a much better chance to overcome them.

This series of posts by Kurn is nothing less than awesome. I look forward to the next installment.

Might I suggest that someone using this strategy record a video of SNG? For me seeing this in action with some commentary would be quite valuable.

[Invigilator]

This is making me interested in renewing my own SNG experiment. I am still thinking a lot about how vaiance wroks in SNG's since so much play occurs before any money is available.

[Talking Poker]

I love this series too. You're a great writer Kurn.

And I second de-coder's request: A SNG video or two (ideally, edited to cut out most of the folding early on and only show preflop actions and hand results) would be awesome. Of course, if you want to talk while you're folding, that would be great.

Better yet, an unedited video of say 4 tabling SNGs would probably work out the best.

[Invigilator]

However many tables, unedited would be better. I think a lot of us would benefit from having to think about those "why would you fold that preflop?" situations that come up in the early super tight stages. Sort of drives the point home.