For the sports bettors

[Penguinfan]

POSTED BY TP IN ANOTHER THREAD:
It is not my intention to talk anyone into placing a wager on any game. Just sharing where my action will be for any given evening. I don't have action every night, only games that I think long term are good positions.

I've been doing this for a lot of years and believe me when I tell you the very best, the top 1% of handicappers rarely, if ever hit 60% in a year. You have to be willing to absolutly grind out an income in this game

Don't bet money on games you had no intention of playing just because I post it here, but if you are so inclined then I am happy to post my thoughts.

Good Luck

[Talking Poker]

And I for one am happy to read them.

I know there are people who SUCCESSFULLY make a living betting sports. I think it's got to be an extremely difficult (and dangerous) way to make a living... but like poker, sports wagering is clearly a game of skill, not a game of chance, so it only stands to reason that there are some people better at it than others.

It's got to be tough to beat the vig in the long run though.

If you don't mind me asking, Penguin, how are your long term numbers?

[Penguinfan]

Exact number from years gone by I just don't have, dollars and cents I can tell you to the penny for the last 5 years. I find it useless to post numbers on forums as it just starts the inevitable bashing that follows as nobody wants to believe people are winners or want to challenge how much anyone plays on a given bet.

I am still a small timer in terms of the sports betting world, still $200 a game, no more, no less. I keep that bankroll seperate from EVERYTHING else I do, including poker. I play very small stakes poker in comparison to my sports betting for a simple reason, I win at sports betting and lose at poker. Most people would not have that kind of discipline, I'm happy I do.

The sports betting bankroll is honestly a way to pay off the mortgage early, that much I wasn't joking about in the other thread. I've done well enough that we refinanced the house 3 years ago and dropped it to a 15 year mortgage from a 30 year mortgage which we had 27 years left and did not icrease our payment (actually went down $40 a month). Dropping the interest rate helped that process as well.

If things go well enough we will have it paid off 6 more years.

If I end up refinancing BACK to 30 years it means I lost my ass, let's hope it doesn't come to that.

[JDMcNugent7]

That's sweet- I just wanna bet my friends as we are all big gamblers, I'm way into Fantasy Football and am in a league for money and I am one person that will read all the posts about who u are picking to win that night and then decide from there. So thx, its helpful, and good job on it- sounds like ur doin awesome at it.

[Zybomb]

Penguin I am very interested in hearing your opinions... I bet sports small time, but I have a close friend who is much more serious than I am... I'd like to get a little more involved however.

[Talking Poker]

I wasn't asking for an exact number... all I was getting at is wondering if you are up or down long term.... I see you are up, and that's great. So my next question, is what kind of variance do you see with sports betting? Particularly yeear to year, but also month to month.... I realize it depends on how many games you bet each month, but I'm curious. Do you have 7 winning months per year? 8?

As for the $200 per game, that's interesting... So you look at $200 as one unit and that's what you bet, no matter how much you love a line?

I'm the exact opposite as you. I'm a VERY small time sports handicapper compared to poker.... I do it more for fun than anything. It makes the games a lot more exciting.

I opened my account in 1996 or 1997, made a small deposit, and haven't had to redeposit since. I started off betting $5 and $6 per game, and even making a bunch of $1 bets. I WAY up to the $10, $20 and occasional $50 range now - lol....

[Windbreaker]

On top of handicapping, you can always make money by bonus whoring and getting bonuses by signing up through affiliate links.

The bonus whoring requires a bit of work and might require a large sum of money being dumped at one site. Basically what you have to do is sign up to get a deposit bonus from the site. Most site requires the deposit + bonus amount to be rolled over a few times over before allowing a withdraw.

Now the key to the whole whoring is to find an identical lines that pays about even money or better for each team of the wager on two different sportsbook.

Eg. Site X gives the line Team A -3 vs Team B Pays Even
Site Y gives the line Team B +3 vs Team A Pays Even

Now you can make two large equal size bet on both sites and clear a large portion of the bonus. Continue to do so until the bonuses are cleared.

[Talking Poker]

Clever.

I guess the key is finding even money...

[eddo31]

penguinfan

sounds like you do very well with sports betting. good to hear hat you have a system and the discipline to stick with it whatever the situation.

the only sports betting that i have done was on a very small basis. i had a friend living in vegas during the football season last year, and just for kicks i would play a parlay or two every sunday. this was really just for fun, with the max i bet in a weekend around $15. i never won any of the parlays, but i didnt really expect to either. it just added a bit of excitement to the weekend.

unfortunately i think my sports betting days are over. i work for a pro sports franchise, and i really have no interest in risking anyting that i have gained by putting a couple of bucks down on a game here and there.

[Talking Poker]

Who do you work for, eddo? What do you do?

[GeoffM]

Eddo, unless you are player personnel or in charge of it, I don't think any legal ramifications would follow if you placed bets.

[Penguinfan]

Good questions there and I'll try to answer all the ones that can be given a finite answer.

Variance in sports betting is nothing like poker, especially since your never really moving up or down in levels, you find an amount you are comfortable with that your bankroll can withstand and you stick with it. Make sure it's enough to cover what you want to win long term. Remember, the best in the business rarely see 60% win rate and the opposite holds true if you are any kind of serious handicapper, meaning you will not drop below 40% for a given period. If you do you need to re-evaluate your handicapping skills and realize it's not bad luck, your making mistakes. We will win as many games as we lost like last night. We'll be on the wrong side and get the win sometimes, it happens. So variance is not that much of an issue, GRINDING it out is the issue.

Much like when I say you just can't beat poker long term because of the run of bad beats and cold cards and you guys argue I am wrong, well honestly I know that, I just haven't figured out how to beat the game yet.

Look at the wagers place by Omahilo last night, getting the Rangers at -1.5 +225 and the Rams at +13.5 -110 and placing say $100 on each bet actually got him a profit of $115 and thats great, not spectacular and it was rough watching the wheels come off for the Rams in the second half, but we did grind out a profit and we move on to the next days card.

Do I bet the same amount every game, well I really try to though I make the occasional blunder and really hammer a game. This honestly shouldn't happen, not becase I don't like some games more than others but rather those are the only games you should be betting. Forcing action will kill you. You see guys on message boards (and at the window in Vegas) saying 2 units on this game and 1 unit on these other three games when in reality they should ONLY be betting the first game and only for their standard amount. Betting more because "I'm up this week" is nonsense as well. At the end of the week I would hate like hell to go 7-5 on plays and lose money becasuse I doubled up on a game or two. This is where variance comes into play and only because you invited it.

Could the opposite happen and you go 5-7 yet make money because you LOVE the Monday night game? Sure, but first off you still have issues with your handicapping system that will ruin you long term, and besides, how often do you see the guy at the blackjack table who keeps doubling up his bets because he has to win one eventually ever break even? We all have a story of hitting a big bet to get us unstuck, but in reality it hurts you much more often than it helps you.

You say you are a small time sports bettor compared to poker, GOOD, obviously you are very good at poker and probably didn't spend an hour going over the MNF game last night. It only makes sense to put the money where your strength lies, for me it's the opposite. I doubt I will see you handicapping a game on your own and throwing 5 grand on it, much like you won't see me enter a poker tournament against pro's with a 5K buy-in, get it?

Sports betting at it's finest is much like winning lower limit poker, it's boring, a grind, and a lot of work, but it can be profitable.

[Talking Poker]

Cool, thanks...

And feel free to keep on posting your picks. It appears others are interested as well. Maybe we should track your record, for fun (if you want). I think you're 3-1 right now, which is a pretty nice start.

[Penguinfan]

4-1, but who's counting?

[junYUN]

betting on sports ruined a buncha people around me... and somehow despite my love for gambling, and my love for sports... i have never bet on a game.

power to those who can make money off it though... but one of my buddies is barely seeing the light after his $150,000 debt.

[Talking Poker]

Wow.... that's sick.

[junYUN]

yeah... but hey i guess it could be worse... his name could be mike matasow.

[eddo31]

currently i work for the cincinnati reds in baseball operations. there might be a change of positions/organizations in the near future, but for the time being i am in cincinnati.

i know that the risk of any type of sports betting coming back to bite me is small, but i dont really see the need to take any risks. especially seeing that my position puts me in direct daily contact with the manager and field staff, any sort of bets could put me in a very precarious position.

[Windbreaker]

The way I look at sports betting is basically the same as poker. In both you're trying to maximize others mistakes, and minimize your own mistakes.

Anytime a line is created, a person or a system impliments an artificial line to create action to generate equal EV on both sides for the sports book. This way the sports book can just profit from the juice. Whenever this artificial lin is created, a human element is involved which in results means there's a degree of error.

I feel the good sports bettors do is find the line that have the most margin of error. In general for a sports bettor to make money in the long term, they have to make less mistakes than the system that generated the line. Those who do so the best, will as a result profit the most.

This is just like poker where you want to put in your money when you know you're the favorite. And try to minimize your losses on hands that you just can't toss away.

And as in poker, there's always the element of luck that is really out of your hands after you have made your decision. However, it shouldn't alter the thought process if a similar situation occurs in the future.

[Windbreaker]

Just make a friendly wager weather Pete Rose makes the hall of fame. That has nothing to do with sports

[eddo31]

another comparison that you can make is between game/table selection and shopping for lines. finding a good game and playing solid poker can be much more profitable than playing your A game against a tough table. the same can be said for sports betting. shopping around and finding a good line, or even being able to find those 1 in a million times when you can lock up a win by betting bot sides of the line at different books, can be very profitable in itself. this is more of an indication of doing the legwork than of having significant skill, and it can be very profitable in the long run.

[eddo31]

i think i would rather put my money towards making sure that he stays out. that guy is a professional scumbag.

[omahilo]

interesting stuff indeed.

Peng is right... I was 'freerolling' coming into the MNF game since NYR had already cashed for me. The only problem was that I was cashing in on the rams after leading 17-0... I was counting the money and everything

I love to bet sports personally but I wont lie, I usually lose whatever I deposit.

I wish I could handicap a game... I do actually try to look at stats, trends, etc before placing a bet but Im sure there is more to it.

[omahilo]

You can say what you want about Pete Rose but the way he played the game was amazing, no one played harder than him.

Everytime you see him, hes sliding head first into 3rd or plowing over a catcher at home.

No one in todays game can come even close to playing the game as hard as he did.

I wish he would of admitted his problems along time ago and fixed his problems. If he would of did this he would easily be in the hall as of today because he was (still is) one of the most popular players because of the fact he was just a average joe who put himself on the line every single play of every single game.

[eddo31]

honestly, i have never put a lot of stock in the pete rose charlie hustle image. yeah, he looked like he played hard on every play, but he did a lot of unnecessary things on the field that are really false hustle and showmanship.

there are a ton of players out there that play the game just as hard as he did, and who have avsolutely maximized whatever talent they do have. david eckstein is at the top of that list for most people, but you also have to include guys like darin erstad, ryan freel, eric byrnes, and tons of others across the major leagues. most people dont realize the absolute dedication that it takes to make it to the major leagues and stay, because it is easy to look at some of the supremely talented individuals that play the game lackadaisically and think that talent can take you all the way to the major leagues (Andruw jones and manny ramirez come to mind for most). they dont see the behind the scenes work that these players put in to get to the level they are at. of course there are players that do not maximize their talent due to a poor work ethic, but there are far more players who make it to the majors and stay there because of their work habits and dedication.

my major problem with pete rose is that the public perception of him has never been equal to his actual abilities. he was a .303 hitter in the major leagues, which is a tremendous accomplishment dont get me wrong, but it is not the indication of one of the greatest hitters ever. he was a very good player, but the fact is he was never the best player on his own team, never mind the whole league. (i know that he won the 1973 mvp, but look at the seasons put up by willie stargell, joe morgan, bobby bonds, hank aaron and tony perez that year. rose pales in comparison) he should not be mentioned in the same breath as the true greats of the game, and that is even before his abhorrent actions off the field are taken into consideration.

just my 2 cents. (i think that you probably get an idea of how i feel living in a city that worships at his feet)