5/10 6-max stats

[PShabi]

TP,

When you get a minute, can you compare your stats. My sample is my last 10,699 hands. Not very big, but I want to look at it because this time period is where I feel I was playing my best poker. Something clicked, you know.

Anyway, the winrate supports my claim, but I was just wondering about any discrepancies between our stats.





Also, take a look at the position stats. What's your SB winrate? It seems I'm running WAY TO GOOD in the SB, but I'm losing more in the BB than I have in the past. This bothers me. Am I overdefending the BB?

[jaeh00d]

you didnt post that for me but those stats are very good

[PShabi]

The results are definitely quite acceptable.

Just peakin for anything that's leakin', you know?

Comments appreciated by anyone, not just TP. I just know he's got stats to compare with.

And he's at least partially responsible for my game being where it is.

[Talking Poker]

Looking at my 5/10 stats only:

-I'm a little bit looser than you, but I steal blinds a little bit less.
-My BB/100 is higher, but not tons.
-I go to showdowns a bit more and win at showdown exactly as much as you do.
-PFR is very close.
-My agression factor is lower across the board - my total is just under 2.
-You check raise twice as much as I do, and get this:
67% of yours come on the flop, while 78% of mine come on the turn! You flop, turn, river check raise numbers are: 67, 32, 1. Mine are 9, 78, and 13. This is definitely our most significant difference.

Overall, I think you're numbers look pretty good... Our difference are slight, and I have no reason to believe one of us is right and the other is wrong. I do like my check raise distribution better than yours, but other than that, everything seems to be in line.

As for position stats, they are very similar. The biggest difference I see if that I complete from the SB more.

[PShabi]

What are you winrates / 100 hands from the SB and BB. Look in position stats.

[PShabi]

Hmmm, the check/raise stats are interesting.

Here's my brief analysis. I think, when some player are looking at stats, they look individually too much.

All the stats correlate and give a pattern of your playing style.

I play less hands, but raise the same amount as you. So, that makes me appear more aggressive preflop, because a greater % of my plays are raises.

I'm also stealing more, so think of what image I'm creating.

This type of thing gets me into more battles on the flop, with people playing back at me because of my agg image.

Therefore, I think my turn check/raise #s are down because I've already shown so much agg preflop and on the flop, that if I'm betting the turn, people are usually calling me down.

My flop check raises usually come when I'm in early position with a decent hand multiway. I'll check, hoping to get a loose bet out of a loose player in LP. Then I check raise to isolate and protect my hand.

I also check/raise in blind battles as well, usually with less than top pair.

Overall, I think we just have different styles.

I'm making money with steals and being very aggressive early and just playing like a jackhammer. You get in with a lot of hands early and make up for it with more sophisticated post flop play.

We both know that your win comes postflop and you're a better player than I am.

What is your exact Went to Showdown stat?

[PShabi]

Another thing to look at when you have time. No hurry.

In the "more detail" section there's a "steal success" stat area.

Let me interpret my stats and tell me if I'm fudamentally wrong in my analysis please.

I attempt to steal 35% fo the time.

Steal success #s are as follows:

No flop% 26 (this means I steal without seeing a flop)

Fold% (I'm not sure what this means. Is this % I fold, or the % they fold?) Anyway it's 23%

Now I win w/o seeing showdown 50% of the time here. Which seems really high.

I go to showdown in steal situations 26% of the time.

I win $ at showdown 52% of the time.

So, If I win 52% of the time at showdown and 50% of the time w/o seeing a showdown . What the fuck does this mean? I'm confused. I guess I need to know the true definitions of these stats.

[Talking Poker]

Very similar to yours, which is why I didn't bother posting them. -.15 in the BB and -.04 in the SB. All other positions are +, of course.

[Talking Poker]

See bold.

[Talking Poker]

Look it up. I'm sure you can find the definitions in the help files somewhere... I think I see what you are misunderstanding though. I'm guessing that 52% is of the time you REACH a showdown, which obviously excludes the 50% of the time you don't even get to the showdown. In other words, it's really 26% of the total time that you end up going to showdown and winning.

My numbers: 30% attempt. No flop 21%. Fold 22%. W w/o SD 45%. Go to SD 32%. Win at SD 54%.

[Aequitas58]

This thread is a diamond in the rough.

[Talking Poker]

I agree.

[PShabi]

Got some answers on what these stats mean. Straight from PT forum:

Steal Success

* No Flop % - percentage of times your steal attempts were not called.
* Fold % - percentage of times, when you attempting a steal that you folded before showdown.
* Ww/oSD% - percentage of times, when attempting a steal, that you won the hand without a showdown.
* WSD% - percentage of times you went to showdown when attempting to steal.
* W$SD% - percentage of times you won money when going to showdown when attempting to steal.

BTW, blind steal is defined by the program as ANY raise from the CO or Button where no one has entered the pot.

So, I have attempted 706 steals.

My fold% is 23%. I lost rougly 162 hands w/o showing down.

I went to showdown 26.6% of the time. That's 188 times. I won 52.66% of those. That's 99 wins, 89 losses showing down.

Now the good part is I win 50.3% w/o a showdown.

So, in summation:

I'm winning

50.3% w/o a showdown
+
14% (99 wins at showdown / 706 total attempts)

=

approx. 65% winrate when making a steal.

Looks like blind steals are a pretty big part of my recent success.

[PShabi]

Now, I guess you look at my attempt to steal #. 35%.

I steal 35% of the time and win 65% of those pots. Now as I start to steal more, I'll probably see that 65% # go down. However, with more attempts the the actual money won could stay the same.

At what steal rate would it become unprofittable? If you stole 38% of the time and won 64% of those pots, you'd obviously be making more $$$.

Pretty interesting.

Bed time.

[Talking Poker]

Using your same formulas, it looks like my number is 63% - not significantly different from yours, really.

The other thing to consider though, is that in most of those hands, you are winning small pots (before the showdown - probably quite a few preflop), where probably ALL of the losses come after the flop at the very least. In other words, yes, you are winning 2/3 of these pots, but if the pots you are winning are only 2/3 as big as the ones you are losing, all you are doing is breaking even.

See what I'm getting at? I think there is even more to it than you have investigated so far - namely converting this into BB/100 for steal attempts, which I'm sure PT can do somehow.

[sjay2k]

Here are my stats from 5/10 and 10/20 (only about 5.5K hands, but still):

[sjay2k]

I'll have a closer look later, but I noticed that our check-raising statistics are all quite different:

Shabi: 1.2%, 67/32/1
TP: 0.6%, 9/78/13
Sjay: 1.7%, 49/40/11

Interesting.

[sjay2k]

And position stats (filtered for 4-6 players)

UTG: 18/18, 0.13
MP: 21/19.5, 0.12
CO: 22.5/19, 0.16
Button: 28/22, 0.21
SB: 40/12.5, -0.02
BB: 29/12, -0.11 (tighten up here??)

[Talking Poker]

Your numbers look great (nice BB/100), but as you said, your sample size is just too small to really be significant. It's better than nothing, and the numbers that show HOW you play are meaningful, but I don't think the results are meaningful yet.

[PShabi]

Maybe more significant than you think. I'm winning 2% more in my attempts. I think I was stealing at 35 and you were at 32, right?

So, I steal 3% more often and still win at a better %. May add up to a bit more than we think. Nothing crazy though.

However, I agree, you have to look at bb/100 in stealing situations. I'll see if I can

[wildcard1433]

If you're really curious about where you would become unprofitable, or rather where you are most profitable with those percentages, I'm sure there is an optimization formula you can plug those into to find out. I'll leave the exacts to the stats majors and computer programs though. Actually, is there any stats programs that will use your numbers to show how to optimize profit, or is that a new dicussion topic?

[PShabi]

I'll get back to this when I ahve more time, but let me just say that I've seen people with "stats" that match up and winrates that do not.

There are no "optimal" stats.

[wildcard1433]

that's why it's gambling eh?

[sjay2k]

Okay shabi, after comparing our stats, the major differences are:

1. You calldown on the river more often. You fold to 40% of river bets vs. my 47%.
2. You are a fair bit tighter pre-flop (VPIP of 24 vs 28.5). I think 24 may be a little too tight. I think you can play more than 25.8 on the button
3. You check-raise on the flop a lot more than the turn. Turn check-raises are so much more vicious and scary!
4. You win with AA 78% vs my 67%. lol.

[Talking Poker]

81% baby (for ALL 6 max limits, not just 5/10). 2.36 BB/Hand. IT's my best hand in both of those categories, and rightly so.