Thursday Night CFB

[jillaj]

I got in on the under for USC/Auburn at 38 and Auburn -14. Had to put something on it to make it interesting.

[omahilo]

0-2... sorry bro.

I bet Auburn -14 as well just a small quarter unit to make the game exciting to watch.

I dont post my 'for fun' plays usually because I dont want anyone to lose money if they suddenly get a crazy idea to bet the game.

[jillaj]

I don't either. Thats why I posted after the game started. Auburn's defense wasn't all that impressive tonight as USC did pretty much whatever they wanted to with the ball.

[omahilo]

yeah Im suprised South C. played that well, I was expecting Auburn to roll. I guess Spurrier had his troops ready to play.

[Penguinfan]

I'm not busting on you, hey I haven't been all that impressive recently, still up I think, but not killing it.

The problem with the bets you made on this game is you really painted yourself into a corner and were basically hoping for a shutout on Auburns part.

How many final scores could have made BOTH bets go your way?

As soon as SC (or any dog in with these lines) scores even 10 points you are gonna need exactly a 27-10 score to win both bets. I say that because how many times do you see a team score 25 or 26 points?

Never take UNDER a low total and lay more than 6 points in the same game. You really would have had to have almost a perfect line on this game to win both bets.

Personally I would have thought you go 1-1 on those bets, bad break losing them both, but there was little chance you could win both simply because of the fine line you were walking.


I'll throw in a handicappping 101 lesson here, ever notice how close Vegas is on so many games to the actual score and totals? Vegas has one team favored by 6 points and they win by 7 of have the total at 44 and it lands on 43??? Granted they miss some by a wide margain, but a lot of times they are really close.

Start your handicapping with the line, say it's -6 and 43, first thing I do is write down the final score of the favorite winning by 6 with the total points scored as close as possible to the posted total with a reasonable football score.

In this case something like 24-17, this is the kind of game Vegas is predicting it will be, I then work backwards from that score and see how reasonable I think it is for either side to score that number of points, or stop the other team from scoring their needed number of points.

It's not the end all of handicapping, but it is a great place to start.

[omahilo]

I do agree Penguin...

Whenever I bet a game like Auburn -14 and Im going to be the UNDER/OVER, I always take the OVER.

or if I was going to take the pts like South Car. +14, I would usually take the UNDER.

both situations you end up 1-1 on the night.

[Zybomb]

Yup, whenever laying a lot of points taking an under (especially a low under) is generally not a smartbet, as hitting both bets are very unlikely

Generally Overs and Favorites so good together, as do underdogs and Unders