sports betting

[JDMcNugent7]

Once I get to college and sit around with my roomates watching sports I like to bet sports alot more. I do it mainly for fun keep less than 1% of my BR on bodgog at anytime since I don't consider myself any kind of knowledgable sports better at this point. but ofc I'm looking to win too.

We should get peole to post if theres any lines that look real good.

I am honestly tempted to bet Nadal -1200 vs Mardy Fish. I mean you risk 6000 to win 500 but it seems like such a lock; like a free $500. Is that just a horrible idea?

Also my friend who follows UFC and tends to be a good pick at them, thinks the line on the Matt Hamil +225 is somewhat of a steal. He thinks the fight will be way closer than what the lines at. Even Ken Shamrock +400 vs Kimbo looks tempting.

[Wes]

that is a bad bet if you bet on nadal. i saw fish and nadal (twice) live and fish has an awesome serve that could easily allow him to win on hard courts whereas nadal's game doesn't translate as well to hard courts. Not to say that Nadal isn't easily the favorite, but I think -600 is the correct line.

And do not, and I can't stress this enough, do not bet on Shamrock. He is an absolute can now. If kimbo has any conditioning he should be able to breath on shamrock and shamrock's knees will buckle by now.

hamil vs. franklin seems like where the line should be at (-250ish for Franklin). Hamil did look good in one of the worst decisions ever when he lost to Bisping, but it seems to be lost that Franklin was a monster before he met #1 pound for pound Spiderman Silva. Franklin doesn't really have a whole lot of experience against wrestlers though in his career (Evan Tanner at UFC 53 seems like the last fight with someone with wrestling skills) though so it is hard to know what to expect.

[sjay2k]

Sports betting can be very profitable. The trick is
a) working out when a line is wrong
b) getting the best odds


Yes, Mardy Fish is a big dog against Nadal. But Nadal is not invincible; he dropped a set in his previous match against an unspectacular opponent. Nadal is overrated right now, I think Federer is more likely to win the US open. Also, Mardy Fish is a wildly inconsistent player, on home court, who just crushed Gael Monfils in straight sets.

Also, you say you can get -1200 on Nadal in this match. Please use decimal instead of silly American odds (all the pluses and minuses make analyses confusing).

-1200 = 1 + 1/12 = 1.083

However, you can back Nadal on Betfair for 1.14 (less commission, which for you would be the maximum amount of 5%). So you'd be getting 1.133.

Thus if you bet on Betfair instead of Bodog, you would win an extra $298 (more than 50% more value). I know it's difficult for Americans to get accounts on Betfair, but if you're going to bet sports, you're just getting screwed anywhere else.

[Wes]

>>>>>>>>>>>>>> betfair

[sjay2k]

My understanding is that Pinnacle is the best of the online sportsbooks. But you consistently get better value at Betfair because it is an exchange.

[Wes]

I think Lesnar at +105 has some value right now as he is basically Couture except bigger, younger, and stronger. This line is going to move quickly though for Lesnar (opened at +130). Wouldn't be completely shocked if by fight time Couture was +200 because of Lesnar's popularity.

Very excited to see this fight as well.

[Penguinfan]

Please don't ever do this, EVER. It is in fact a horrible idea. Avoid bets like this now and forever.

I once bet a man in a bar $100 he couldn't make the Jack of Spades jump out of a deck of cards, run up my arm and piss in my ear.

I left with an earful of piss and $100 less than I went in with.

[Penguinfan]

[quote=sjay2k;150182]Sports betting can be very profitable. The trick is
a) working out when a line is wrong
b) getting the best odds


QUOTE]


a) I disagree, at least to an extent.

b) This is absolutly critical to success in sportsbetting, overlook this at your peril.

[sjay2k]

LOL, if you're betting against correct lines, it's impossible to win. This is basic maths.

[Penguinfan]

Finding a line that is off is of course profitable. There is nothing wrong with betting into a line that is correct if you handicap the game and find value in one side.

Las Vegas is very good at what they do and most lines are very close to the right price.

[JDMcNugent7]

plz explain bar bet? and also why should u always avoid these?

[Penguinfan]

The bar bet is an example sports bettors use to emphasize the fact that just when you think something can't happen it does, and costs you a ton.


Vegas would not offer the type of bets you posted above if it were not extremely profitable for them. You will win this bet most of the time, but the time you lose it you will sit there watching in dis-belief as you flush 6K down the drain.

I have a great local example of bookies here near Pittsburgh around me making a shit ton of cash on something that "couldn't" happen.

The Pirates (who sucked for 11 years in a row at this point) were playing the Arizona Diamondbacks. Everyone here knows our Pirates suck and bet against them playing the Diamondbacks with Curt Schilling on the mound, the Pirates won and everyone is stuck.

What is the logical choice? Double up the next night when Randy Freaking Johnson is on the mound, guess what? The Pirates win again and the bookies rake in a ton of cash.

NO TEAM EVER, besides the Pirates can say they beat Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling in a three game series. Both games Arizona was over a 2-1 favorite. What do you think the odds were the Pirates would win both of those games? Probably worse than Nadal losing to Fish.

Shit happens, don't give Vegas 10-1 it won't.

[Kurn]

The simple rule for prop bets is never bet someone he can't do something he says he can do.