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#1
10-23-06, 08:21 PM
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NFL Week 8
After a 2-0 NFL record last week (Yea Jets/Falcons) A look at some potential interesting matchups for week 8. All three are road teams (but all are dogs, something rare)
NYJ +1.5 at Cleveland. I guessed yesterday that this game would be a pick em, and it essentially is... but I like the Jets here. If you look at the Jets schedule, although they aren't a great team, they easily have potnetial to go 10-6 and make th epost season bc of strength of schedule... it's a big game going into their bye week as well (a win makes them 5-3 and winners of 3 straight). The Road doesn't seem to matter , as the Jets won in Buffalo and Tennessee earlier this year, both teams which I think closely resemble The Browns skill level. Oh yea, as a last thing IT'S CLEVELAND Indianapolis +2.5 at Denver. This is a very interesting matchup. Denver's D has been stellar, but could ANY D really hold the Colts to under 14 points? If you ignore that crazy game against Tennessee, the Colts havent been held that low all year, and the Broncos haven't scored over 17 points all season. Getting this spread at + FG and a hook for the Colts seems like a stellar bet. St. Louis +9 at SD The Rams are a decent team with a lot of +'s in there arsenal. The Chargers have seen mental collapses at times in their defense. I think 9 points is too many to lay here and pick the Rams by cover. These are are early week looks and I will not be completing any bet for several days -- jus a look into potentials
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"Most of the money you'll win at poker comes not from the brilliance of your own play, but from the ineptitude of your opponents." |
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#2
10-24-06, 01:28 AM
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Love the jets... they have played very tough and will beat the clowns outright, getting the pts is just a bonus.
STL I think could win this game outright as well... SD isnt playing very good right now and will be without Shawn Merriman on defense so I like Bulger to have alot of time and find Holt for a few scores. IND/DEN game is a hard game to pick... I personally wouldnt touch this game. I really think Denver's defense IS that good to slow down the colts offense, not a completely dead stop but slow them down just enough. Denver's offense hasnt done great this year but the colts defense isnt that great so I can see Denver finally breaking through for possibly 20pts or more. Mike Doss is out for the season so that is one less person to put on Javon Walker so he might break a big play or two. This game could really go either way but right now I think Denver can win this game at home no less. |
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#4
10-24-06, 06:59 PM
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wow even i might have to bet STL this week.
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"Suffer the pain of discipline or suffer the pain of regret" "Rome wasn't built in a day" |
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#5
10-24-06, 07:16 PM
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STL +9? Can that even be right? Yup... I just bet the Rams right now.
I took the Giants last night (forgot about that bet, actually - I placed it days ago), and I like their team, but they are giving up 9.5 points to Tampa Bay? 9.5? I dunno.... Meanwhile, Chicago is giving up 16.5 to San Francisco? Sure, San Fran is bad and Chicago has been great (well, other than the Arizona game), but this isn't college football. that is a LOT of points. I'm not betting either of those games (yet), but I think the lines are interesting. I like the Eagles -6 vs Jax, despite their knock of not covering (let alone winning) lately. I also like Arizona +3.5 in Green Bay. Interesting week. |
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#6
10-24-06, 07:48 PM
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Think about how public perception is gonna play into a couple of those lines. The betting public is pissed at the Bears and most of them are saying no way in hell I lay that many points on the Bears again.
Take the Bears, it's really that easy. Indy/Denver, well again, Joe Public can't believe he only has to lay -2.5 on the Colts against ANYBODY, let alone the Broncos. Denver tends to rise to the occasion when playing a team that is precieved better than them, covering 8 of the last 10 times playing a team with a winning record. Denver is TOUGH at home, very tough, other than the AFC title game loss to the Steelers they are 17-2 in home games past three years. Denver is not a place to lay points on the road team. Keep in mind I am not a handicapper, I just play one on a poker web-site.
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If aces didn't get cracked they would be writing books about me! |
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#7
10-24-06, 08:22 PM
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Interesting article regarding sports betting from the author of freakonomics:
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#8
10-25-06, 12:46 AM
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The Colts are GETTING points here, Denver is the favorite... but several people seem to think of this as a dangerous bet... so I may change this to a no play
__________________
"Most of the money you'll win at poker comes not from the brilliance of your own play, but from the ineptitude of your opponents." Last edited by Zybomb; 10-25-06 at 12:49 AM. |
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#10
10-25-06, 10:03 AM
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If Indy scores 17 points, they win outright. No way Denver scores 17 points, or at least not 20. I'm betting the Colts will score 17. Manning finally hit his stride last week and will just keep on moving. I just wonder if Bailey will be covering Wayne or Harrison.
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That's how I rolled. |
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#11
10-25-06, 01:06 PM
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That shows you how much I don't even look at the lines anymore, embarassing.
__________________
If aces didn't get cracked they would be writing books about me! |
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#12
10-25-06, 02:21 PM
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I still think Denver can win this game...
The colts havent looked THAT great... They barely beat the jets in a game that shouldnt of been close and they were losing to the TITANS for most of that game till they pulled it out by 1 pt in the 4th quarter. Dont forget they were also losing to the Redskins at halftime of the game Sunday, the final score is just decieving. |
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#13
10-29-06, 12:32 PM
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I see the Eagles line has moved from -6 to -8, making me go from liking it to not touching it.
I just made a number of bets on today's games, after doing ZERO research. I took: Bucs +9 at Giants Bears -16 vs. San Fran (this bet was for Penguin - I wouldn't have touched it) Cardinals +4 at GB Saints -2 vs. Ravens Rams +9.5 at Chargers Steelers -9.5 at Oakland That, my friend, is how we novices do it - glance at the lines and throw some money around. But as poorly as my record has been this year following the "pros" picks, I thought I'd give this a whirl. Oh, and I bet 2 units on the Saints and Rams, so if you are looking for a couple of locks, fade those for sure... |
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#15
10-29-06, 01:27 PM
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I've got 1 unit on each of Zys picks above, as well as 1 unit on the 3 team parlay.
In other news, I had accidentally threw 1 unit on the Cards to win the WS during the NLCS, got in at +400. I win 
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That's how I rolled. |
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#16
10-29-06, 02:20 PM
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Funny Bet. Packers going to own the Cardinals
__________________
Pokerstars = Lazerboy / Full Tilt Poker = Lazerboy "The ultimate measure of a man is not where he stands in moments of comfort, but where he stands at times of challenge and controversy." Last edited by juiCe[3x]; 10-29-06 at 02:33 PM. |
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#18
10-29-06, 02:48 PM
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Good start for Packers too lol. 14-0.
Both the Packers and the Bears held there opponents to 0 passing yards in the first quarter lol.
__________________
Pokerstars = Lazerboy / Full Tilt Poker = Lazerboy "The ultimate measure of a man is not where he stands in moments of comfort, but where he stands at times of challenge and controversy." |
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#19
10-29-06, 05:17 PM
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TB, I don't know who the hell was calling plays for TB today, but if they aren't looking for work already they sure as hell should be. Bears, I'm telling you, Joe Public took it hard on this one. This game probably made LV's day. Cards, what can you say, Favre was bound to have a decent day eventually. Saints, well, they are still the Saints I guess. Rams look like a safe bet at kickoff, but what do I know? Steelers-9.5 should be easy money. As the 4:00's kickoff I say you go even on the day.
__________________
If aces didn't get cracked they would be writing books about me! |
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#21
10-29-06, 07:32 PM
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Don't forget that Green and our backup both ran for over 100 yards.
__________________
Pokerstars = Lazerboy / Full Tilt Poker = Lazerboy "The ultimate measure of a man is not where he stands in moments of comfort, but where he stands at times of challenge and controversy." |
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#23
10-29-06, 10:13 PM
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I think I should retire from this whole sports betting thing and stick to poker. Let's review, shall we???
Bucs +9 at Giants Loser Bears -16 vs. San Fran (this bet was for Penguin - I wouldn't have touched it) Winner Cardinals +4 at GB Loser Saints -2 vs. Ravens Loser Rams +9.5 at Chargers Loser Steelers -9.5 at Oakland Loser That right there is some impressive shit, my friends. The game I won was the one I liked the least! Down 6 units on the day - gotta love that! |
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#25
10-29-06, 11:58 PM
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why Im not Penguin
Yuck -- after a nice 5 Unit win yesterday, the NFL kills...
The Colts game was a winner and my thinking was right that Denvers D couldnt hold the Colts to 17 pts or less -- I just didnt see Denver scoring nearly DOUBLE their previous high total for the year though -- luckily the Colts scored extra though and took it down I am still fuming from the Jets game (as a fan mostly, but as a bettor also). WE GOT SCREWED. That last pass was a clear touchdown and the receive was clearly forced out. He would have landed in bounds with room to spare. I mean this wasnt even close. I can not believe that it was called a no catch and not reviewed. I realize it's a judgement call, but ones judgement can changed after they see a video! HORRIBLE. With all the momentum on the Jets side, they would have won in OT for sure IMO. As far as the Rams and Chargers game, I knew it was going to be a loser. The line was just too fishy for it not to be. 
__________________
"Most of the money you'll win at poker comes not from the brilliance of your own play, but from the ineptitude of your opponents." |
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