Winners or Losers???

[GeoffM]

Ok, so, lets see here. We're at about the halfway point in the year. What my question to everyone is:

Are you a winner or a loser (cash-wise )?

Edited to add: I am a moron and used the less than and greater than symbols incorrectly, but you get the general idea.

[BrianSwa]

I dont have perfect records but with the $350 online right now im probolly about even.

[GeoffM]

In all honesty, I am up around $3K, but that is so exaggerating my poker skills because I swear about $2K worth is bonus money .

[PShabi]

Your choices are awfully low. $500 is a swing for me at 3/6 short. I'm up well over $500 but in all honesty I've had a shit year up until the last month. Rakeback/bonuses have helped and so has the switch to shorthanded. This month should be my best ever barring some unexpectecd tragedy.

[GeoffM]

Shabi, I know this is low, but I didn't want to have a 10 option poll. I don't think too many people on this site play the huge limits, so I settled on the $500 number.

LMAO, $550 in bonuses from Party alone since April 22nd. I just love free money.

[Penguinfan]

I can tell you to the dollar where I am at, down $26.00. Low limit cash (.50/1 1/2) and small buy in MTT and SNG player who just cant get over the hump. Been like that for two years now. I'm actually one of the few people who play too few hands and get pushed out of pots unless I have the nuts. One more pot every half hour or hour, or one less lost pot on the river per hour and I would be on the other side of the line I am certain. One of these days........

[GeoffM]

+$2,568, within $5.

My crusade regarding bonus whoring, you guys should listen .

[Kurn]

If you haven't done so, buy Small Stakes Hold'em. Read it, internalize it, use it, live it. Things will change.

One thing to try right away is on the flop, treat every decision as raise fold and if there's a good pot odds reason to play your hand, raise. Obviously, this isn't correct all the time, but doing this will put you on the right track towards winning postflop play and teach the proper mindset. Many people understand the basics of preflop play and play tight and raise at the right time, but then play too passively postflop. Try it for a session. SSHE goes into this in much more detail.

One more thing - fold less on the river, especially when the pot > 8 BB. It is usually a mistake to fold the river for one bet in limit.

Remember this old adage - "The time for big laydowns is preflop. The time for loose calls is on the river." Weak players usually do the opposite. Sounds like you're OK with the preflop part, but start seeing monsters under the bed after that.

Again, I can't recommend SSHE enough. 3 years ago, Ed Miller was a programmer in Redmond trying to figure out how to stop being a losing player on the weekends at the 4/8 tables at Muckleshoot. Now he co-authors books with Sklansky and Sklansky sought him out because of his success at the loose low limit games newcomers play. You don't need to reinvent the wheel.

[Penguinfan]

Doesn't mean there aren't monsters under the bed. My favorite quote of all time "Just because I am paranoid does not mean they aren't out to get me."

Words to live by.

[2Tone]

Kurn, I give a lot of credence to your advice, so I’ve thought about this one, but am having trouble making it work.

I read an article in a recent Card Player that said the river card should often be your easiest decision. If you made your hand, bet/raise. If you didn’t, check/fold. But calling one extra BB on the river time and time again with the second best hand seems like a very expensive way to occasionally pick up a pot your opponent was bluffing at. Thoughts?

[BlibbityBlabbity]

Which article? Link?

Kurn, is this a low limit only thing? or would you reccomend calling a bet on the river in higher limits as well? I am working on this in my game right now as well. How do you figure the odds for a river call? I have read very vague descriptions about taking into account the "odds" that the bettor is bluffing, could they be betting a scare card, etc, etc...but this never made "numbers" sense to me.

[PShabi]

I'm not sure what your idea of "higher limits" are (for some 3/6 is high, for some 10/20 is low) but this advice holds true in 5/10. Technically, that's still "small stakes hold 'em."

The advice isn't to take weak hands to the river hopelessly. Obviously, if it's bet and raised to you on the flop and you have middle pair, weak kicker, you may want to think about folding. But, if you get to the river through solid play, you shouldn't let an odd lead out or check-raise out of nowhere make you fold.


Small Stakes Hold 'em is the single most important thing you can read as a limit hold 'em player.

[Kurn]

My thoughts are this. There absolutely are times when you know you're beat, Usually when you can't beat top pair and it's a bet and a call to you. Even getting 10:1, maybe you beat the bettor often enough, but you won't beat the caller often enough.

You also will fold on the river when you miss a draw, no matter how big the pot is.

On the other hand, if you think you're not folding on the river too much, maybe you're not folding on the turn often enough? Just a random thought.

Clearly, when the pot gets to 12 BB and it's bet-fold to you, your opponent only needs to be bluffing 8% of the time to make the call +EV. In fact, calling isn't very wrong even when there's an overcall. After all, it's only one more bet, and folding the winner would be a disaster.

I remember a hand I once posted on 2+2 where I three-bet an EP raiser with QQ, and it ended up capped 4 ways preflop. The flop came Ac-Kc-3d, it was checked to me, I checked, the LP player bet, one fold, one call, and I called. Some body criticized that play saying 18:1 was not good enough pot odds to "chase my 2-outer (I did not have a club)". What's wrong with that criticism is 18:1 is a 6% shot. I guarantee you, my QQ is the best hand there almost 6% of the time. Then some other know-it-all pointed out that the Qc wasn't really an out because it would "give somebody the flush." Well, hold on. It doesn't give somebody the flush 100% of the time (probably more like 40% of the time), and 30% of the time it *does* give somebody the flush, I hit one of my 10 outs on the river and win the hand anyway.

The point of all this that once the pot gets to a certain size, folding becomes clearly wrong no matter how possible it is that you're drawing slim or dead.

Poker is about making good decisions. There's a big difference between making a slightly -EV decision when the pot is 4 BB and making the same slightly -EV decision when the pot is 20 BB.

The first question you ask at any point in a poker hand when evaluating your decision should always be "how big is the pot?"

If on the river there are 5 BB in the pot and you have TP/WK, and one person bets and the other folds, go ahead and fold. That's fine. But if on the river of a rock and roll hand there's a 4-flush on the board, 24 BB in the pot and one guy bets and the other folds, I hope you never fold top 2-pair (no flush). I know I won't.

Well, that was a long and rambling reply.

[2Tone]

Found the article.

[PShabi]

Broad example:

Let's say you play 10 different pots and they all contain 10 BBs each. If you call 2nd pair on the river everytime and lose the first 9, you've lost 9BBs. If you pick up the 10th pot, you've won 10BBs and your net in the 10 pots is one big bet.

Losing 9 hands in a row on the river and your perception is going to be that your losing your ass. However, the 10th pot makes up for it and you've won. You have to be able to put it into perspective. Trust me, Kurn is no fool.

And Kurn already posted!!!!!!

[junYUN]

yeah something people don't understand about this concept is it's not about calling with no hand, it's about if you made it to the river thinking there was a chance you're ahead...don't let one more bet on a scare card on the river make you fold the possible winner.

[Talking Poker]

Yes, call more on the river.

This is a huge concept and often a common mistake for new and/or losing players. In theory, your "showdown percentage" shouldn't be all that high. If it is, it could mean that you are folding too much on the river. Think about it.

[Kurn]

The real key decision point in HE is the turn. By that time, you should have a fairly clear idea of the range of hands your opponent is betting. There are several situations were it's correct to call the turn and fold the river (busted draws, for example) or bet the turn, fold the river (2-suited cards on the flop, you're in position, weak-tight or loose passive opponent has been check-calling all the way, now bets when the third flush card hits). However, when the pot reached the 10 BB range and you have something, it's not out the realm of possibility that your opponent is bluffing 10% of the time, or that the board is, say Q-9-5-2-2r your opponent has been betting JTs all the way or 88 and your T9s that you got in cheap with on the button in a multiway pot is the best hand.

This is absolutely true at higher levels as well. Now, if the opponent is one who you're sure would never lead on every street without TP, then go ahead and fold. Fold too much on the river and it's like you're wearing a sign that says "take shots at me". It's only one bet. If you're winning more than 75% of the time you go to showdown, you're probably folding too much on the end. If you're making good decisions leading up to the river, lowering your win rate at showdown from 80% to 67% should increase your win rate.

Say you're winning 80%, so 80/100 hands you call at the river. Now you decide to fold half as often, so you call at the river 150 times instead of 100, but you win 60%, so that 90/150. That's 50 extra bets invested, and let's say the 10 pots you win out of those 50 average only 7 BB each, that's another +20 BB over the same number of hands. (additional edit) Just like in baseball, where the difference between a .250 hitter and a .300 is one hit per week, the difference between a break-even poker player and a winning poker player, is less than one big pot per session.

I don't think this estimate is out of control. 10% bluffs and 10% the lower end of the range of hands the opponent would value bet.

Edit: Don't read Cardplayer for strategy advice. Cardplayer is in the entertainment business.

[Kurn]

Not to mention that if the first two times you showdown at the river you show 2nd pair, very few thinking players will bluff at you.

[Kurn]

Here's one more for you. If you're folding more than 1/2 the time you go to the river, you're going to the river way too often.

[GeoffM]

I agree that folding on the river is in general going to be a very bad play to make. You cannot let someone push you off of a decent looking pot unless they REALLY push you off of it.

In sum, I am actually quite surprised (no offense to anyone) that so many of us have been so successful playing poker. I was only counting online play, and I couldn't tell you how much I have won live, but I would also say I have pulled in closer to $300-400 playing live so far this year. I am guessing a lot of you have made a helluva lot more playing live than I have, but I really only play with buddies who never really got the game as well as I did.

In any event, PenguinFan mentioned this so I would like to give you a little bit of what I find. Playing low limits, and I know you are an O8er, it is extremely difficult to beat the rake, not the players, but the rake. Every time I sit down at a table I find myself playing against it. This is exactly why I will never be loyal to 1 particular site. If a site wants to give me a bonus, I am going to jump all over it because for the most part playing low limits, I can at least break even with the rake and my bonus money is merely that, a "bonus" for hours spent playing on the site and having other people pay my rake for me.

Anyway, if Party is going to have a second reload this month (since the first one was early), it should be tomorrow .

[Talking Poker]

Absolutely.

I know you're not a fan of Poker Tracker Kurn. This is a time where I think it woukld be an asset though. I'd love to see your numbers and compare them to my own. Of course, mine are skewed, since I play mostly 6 max games (I see more flops, I play more aggressively), but I'd still love to see some exact numbers with a large sample size.

[Talking Poker]

I was pretty surprised by this myself. Of the people who responded to the poll, I wonder how many don't have exact numbers and were just guessing... because I find that most people who don't keep records guess themselves to be slightly ahead when in fact they are (at least) slightly in the red... Everything thinks they are a good poker player, but according to my poker tracker stats (for example), most people are losers.

[GeoffM]

LMFAO!

I have only made 1 $400 withdrawal, when times were tight, so I also have the other ~$2200 (not at home, can't check) online right now. Amazingly, I was planning on taking a vacation with this money, but now I have enough to take someone else with me.

PS- In Canadian funds, this works out to being up almost $3,300 for the year, already ahead of my goal of winning $3K CDN. this year. Little bit of thanks to you TP, I have used a few links and the cash has been rolling in. New goal = $6K US , tax free baby .

Now about that porn you're sending me ...

[PShabi]

I should have a small, but decent sample size of 20k at 3/6 6-max by the end of the week. I'd love to compare stats.

Right now through 15k, I'm winning around 1.5BB/100. Have had some major disaster sessions, so I'm feeling alright.

By the way, raise your hand if you're are very glad that Kurn posts here.

Great analysis as always.